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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 6 of 6 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
On the First-Round Effects of International Food Price Shocks: the Role of the Asset Market Structure
Mr. Rafael A Portillo
and
Luis-Felipe Zanna
We develop a tractable small open-economy model to study the first-round effects of international food price shocks in developing countries. We define first-round effects as changes in headline inflation that, holding core inflation constant, help implement relative price adjustments. The model features three goods (food, a generic traded good and a non-traded good), varying degrees of tradability of the food basket, and alternative international asset market structures (complete and incomplete markets, and financial autarky). First-round effects depend crucially on the asset market structure and the different transmission mechanisms they trigger. Under complete markets, inter-temporal substitution prevails, making the inflationary impact of international food prices proportional to the food share in consumption, which in developing economies is typically large. Under financial autarky, the income channel is dominant, and first-round effects are instead proportional to the country's food balance—the difference between the country's food endowment and its consumption—which in developing countries is typically small. The latter result holds regardless of the degree of food tradability. Incomplete markets yield a combination of the two extremes. Our results cast some doubt on the view that international food price shocks are inherently inflationary in developing countries.
Keywords:
WP; core inflation; Food Price Shocks; First-Round Effects; Developing Countries; New-Keynesian Models; Asset Market Structure; IM solution; nominal exchange rate; headline inflation; solution nest; inflation dynamics; market clearing condition; nominal price; Inflation; Consumption; Food prices; Securities markets; Commodity price shocks; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2014, Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2014, Sub-Saharan Africa
Fostering Durable and Inclusive Growth
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The five Regional Economic Outlooks published biannually by the IMF cover Asia and Pacific, Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Western Hemisphere. In each volume, recent economic developments and prospects for the region are discussed as a whole, as well as for specific countries. The reports include key data for countries in the region. Each report focuses on policy developments that have affected economic performance in the region, and discusses key challenges faced by policymakers. The near-term outlook, key risks, and their related policy challenges are analyzed throughout the reports, and current issues are explored, such as when and how to withdraw public interventions in financial systems globally while maintaining a still-fragile economic recovery.These indispensable surveys are the product of comprehensive intradepartmental reviews of economic developments that draw primarily on information the IMF staff gathers through consultation with member countries.

Keywords:
REO; exchange rate; fragile state; monetary policy; MDRI country; Zimbabwe dollar; fragile country; oil-exporting country; country group composite; Exchange rates; Monetary policy frameworks; Inflation; Agricultural sector; Financial inclusion; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; Southern Africa; West Africa; sub-Saharan Africa dummy; purchasing power parity; Sub-Saharan Africa dummy level; policy rate; poverty-reducing potential; household enterprise; Central bank policy rate
Cover IMF Working Papers
Exchange Rate Liberalization in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries Successes, Failures, and Lessons
Mr. Nils O Maehle
,
Ms. Haimanot Teferra
, and
Mrs. Armine Khachatryan
Many sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries liberalized their economies in the 1980s and early 1990s. This paper reviews the foreign exchange regime reforms in selected SSA, and their associated macroeconomic policies and economic performance during and after these reforms were undertaken. Before liberalization, most of the reviewed countries were characterized by extensive foreign exchange rationing, sizeable black market premiums, and declining per capita real income. Today, the countries that successfully reformed look markedly different. Rationing and parallel market spreads are a distant memory, and per capita income has increased sharply.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; U.S. dollar; government; country; headline inflation; proceeds; Exchange rate regimes; reforms; growth; inflation; structural adjustment; managed float; per capita income; inflation rate; exchange rate liberalization; stabilization effort; exchange rate depreciation; U.S. dollar exchange rate; adjustable peg; auction market; overvalued exchange rate; Exchange rates; Exchange rate arrangements; Currency markets; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetization in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
Mr. Noriaki Kinoshita
and
Mr. Cameron McLoughlin
The degree of an economy’s monetization, which has an important implication on economic growth, can be affected by the conduct of monetary policy, financial sector reform, and episodes of financial crises. The paper finds that monetization--measured by the ratio of broad money to nominal GDP-- in low- to middle-income countries is significantly correlated with per-capita GDP, real interest rates, and financial sector reform. It suggests that maintaining an upward momentum in monetization can be an important policy objective, particularly for low-income countries, and that monetary and financial sector policies need to be conducive to enhancing monetization.
Keywords:
WP; monetization; monetization ratio; rate; GDP; Financial Sector Reform; Low- and Middle-Income Countries; inflation expectation; central bank financing; monetization experience; influence monetization; monetization outcome; Deposit rates; Financial sector development; Bank deposits; Inflation; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Intermediation Costs in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Regulatory, Institutional, and Macroeconomic Factors
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
We analyze factors driving persistently higher financial intermediation costs in low-income countries (LICs) relative to emerging market (EMs) country comparators. Using the net interest margin as a proxy for financial intermediation costs at the bank level, we find that within LICs a substantial part of the variation in interest margins can be explained by bank-specific factors: margins tend to increase with higher riskiness of credit portfolio, lower bank capitalization, and smaller bank size. Overall, we find that concentrated market structures and lack of competition in LICs banking systems and institutional weaknesses constitute the key impediments preventing financial intermediation costs from declining. Our results provide strong evidence that policies aimed at fostering banking competition and strengthening institutional frameworks can reduce intermediation costs in LICs.
Keywords:
WP; interest margin; LICS bank; bank characteristic; dependent variable; Net Interest Margins; Banks; Low Income Countries; Emerging Economies; entry application; margin determinant; bank efficiency; intermediation service; Credit risk; Reserve requirements; Loan loss provisions; Inflation; Competition; Western Hemisphere
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2011, Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2011, Sub-Saharan Africa
Recovery and New Risks
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa's economic recovery is well under way, although among country groups there is variation in the speed of the recovery. In most of the region's low-income countries and among the seven oil exporters growth is almost back to precrisis levels. However, in the region's middle-income countries, including South Africa, the recovery has been more gradual. This Regional Economic Outlook describes the impact of recent economic developments---sharp increases in food and fuel prices will need fiscal interventions targeting the poor, while higher oil prices will be a boon to some countries and adversely affect others. Policy adjustments are needed to move away from the supportive stance of the last few years but should be balanced against the need to alleviate the impact of rising food prices on poor households.

Keywords:
REO; fuel price increase; price; Sub-Saharan Africa; spending; EAC export; EAC member; food price; portfolio inflow; inflation rate; Food prices; Capital inflows; Inflation; Exports; Commodity prices; Global; Africa; Middle East; North Africa; EAC trade; Emerging and frontier financial markets