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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 3 of 3 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Money supply x
  • Demand for Money x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
On the Optimal Adherence to Money Targets in a New-Keynesian Framework: An Application to Low-Income Countries
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Ms. Filiz D Unsal
, and
Mr. Rafael A Portillo
Many low-income countries continue to describe their monetary policy framework in terms of targets on monetary aggregates. This contrasts with most modern discussions of monetary policy, and with most practice. We extend the new-Keynesian model to provide a role for “M” in the conduct of monetary policy, and examine the conditions under which some adherence to money targets is optimal. In the spirit of Poole (1970), this role is based on the incompleteness of information available to the central bank, a pervasive issues in these countries. Ex-ante announcements/forecasts for money growth are consistent with a Taylor rule for the relevant short-term interest rate. Ex-post, the policy maker must choose his relative adherence to interest rate and money growth targets. Drawing on the method in Svensson and Woodford (2004), we show that the optimal adherence to ex-ante targets is equivalent to a signal extraction problem where the central bank uses the money market information to update its estimate of the state of the economy. We estimate the model, using Bayesian methods, for Tanzania, Uganda (both de jure money targeters), and Ghana (a de jure inflation targeter), and compare the de facto adherence to targets with the optimal use of money market information in each country.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Liberalization, Money Demand, and Inflation in Uganda
Mr. Jean-Claude Nachega
This paper uses cointegration analysis to investigate the empirical relationship among money, prices, income, and a vector of interest rates in Uganda from 1982 to 1998. Despite the substantial financial market liberalization that has taken place in the early 1990s, quarterly time-series data confirm that a stable relationship prevailed among real broad money, income, and domestic and foreign interest rates. The empirical results indicate income homogeneity, a strong own-rate-of-return effect, a high degree of international capital mobility and asset substitutability, and demonstrate that both domestic and foreign factors are important determinants of inflation in Uganda.
Keywords:
WP; money demand; exchange rate; treasury bill; Uganda; inflation; financial liberalization; cointegration; broad money velocity; demand function; exchange rate depreciation; velocity equation; depreciation rate; inflation process; Monetary base; Demand for money; Velocity of money; Interbank rates; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Policy towards Commodity Shocks in Developing Countries
Ms. Jan Gunning
and
Mr. Paul Collier
On the basis of a comparative study of 23 episodes involving commodity price shocks we find that both the public and private sectors typically save around half of a windfall gain resulting from a price rise. We argue that private windfalls should be left with the private sector rather than taxed. The focus of policy towards windfalls should be monetary rather than fiscal. The central bank should accommodate aggregate changes in the demand for financial assets. The private sector will initially wish to increase its claims on the central bank as it saves the windfall, but will then reduce them as portfolios are switched into real assets.
Keywords:
WP; private sector; rate; price level; savings rate; financial asset; rate of return; asset demand; investment rate; windfall income; Income; Monetary base; Reserves accumulation; Agricultural commodities; Demand for money; Africa