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Africa > Uganda

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Cover Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa
Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa
Mr. Andrew Berg
and
Mr. Rafael A Portillo

Abstract

Monetary policy in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) has undergone an important transformation in recent decades. With the advent of sustained growth and generally stable fiscal policies in much of the region, many countries are now working to modernize their monetary policy frameworks. This book provides a comprehensive view of the many monetary policy issues in sub-Saharan Africa. It reflects an effort to fill a gap in the current literature and collects research by staff of the IMF and other institutions, as well as from policymakers within central banks in SSA. The chapters explore the many dimensions of monetary policy in SSA. This volume will serve as an important reference for academics and policymakers and will inform future policy debates. The book highlights two points, one policy-related and the other methodological. Although these countries differ in important ways from advanced and emerging market countries, the monetary policy issues they face are not fundamentally different from those faced elsewhere. Policy aims to provide an anchor for inflation over the medium term while also responding to external and domestic shocks. Likewise, Sub-Saharan African countries are in the process of modernizing their policy frameworks, by clarifying their objectives and improving their operational frameworks, making policy increasingly forward-looking and improving their forecasting and analytical capacity.

Keywords:
BOOK; monetary policy shock; money target; interest rate rule; inflation rate; food inflation; Inflation; Exchange rates; Monetary base; Food prices; Demand for money; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Africa; Central Africa; Eastern Europe; Real exchange rates
Cover Policy Papers
Conditionality in Evolving Monetary Policy Regimes
International Monetary Fund
With single-digit inflation and substantial financial deepening, developing countries are adopting more flexible and forward-looking monetary policy frameworks and ascribing a greater role to policy interest rates and inflation objectives. While some countries have adopted formal inflation targeting regimes, others have developed frameworks with greater target flexibility to accommodate changing money demand, use of policy rates to signal the monetary policy stance, and implicit inflation targets.
Keywords:
PP; monetary policy regime; transmission mechanism; monetary policy conditionality; Fund-supported program; monetary policy stance; country authorities; monetary aggregate; monetary policy framework; money demand; broad money; reserve money target; conditionality toolkit; Inflation; Monetary base; Monetary policy frameworks; Inflation targeting; Monetary aggregates; Global; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community: An Empirical Investigation
Mr. Hamid R Davoodi
,
S. V. S. Dixit
, and
Gabor Pinter
Do changes in monetary policy affect inflation and output in the East African Community (EAC)? We find that (i) Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM) tends to be generally weak when using standard statistical inferences, but somewhat strong when using non-standard inference methods; (ii) when MTM is present, the precise transmission channels and their importance differ across countries; and (iii) reserve money and the policy rate, two frequently used instruments of monetary policy, sometimes move in directions that exert offsetting expansionary and contractionary effects on inflation—posing challenges to harmonization of monetary policies across the EAC and transition to a future East African Monetary Union. The paper offers some suggestions for strengthening the MTM in the EAC.
Keywords:
WP; price level; contractionary monetary policy; exchange rate; central bank; money multiplier; Monetary policy; reserve money; policy rate; vector autoregressions; monetary policy shock; transmission mechanism; monetary policy authority; interest rate channel; rising prices; monetary policy transmission; Monetary base; Central bank policy rate; Vector autoregression; Credit; Exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Rwanda: 2010 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Policy Support Instrument-Staff Report; Public Information Notice and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Rwanda.
International Monetary Fund
Satisfactory implementation of the economic program supported by the Policy Support Instrument has helped Rwanda during the global economic downturn. The program focuses on maintaining a sustainable fiscal position; strengthening monetary and exchange rate policies; and supporting growth with structural reforms to diversify the export base and improve the business environment. The authorities are committed to assess the inflation to safeguard the gains made in macroeconomic stability that currently underpin the economic recovery. Executive Directors emphasized the need to maintain macroeconomic stability to achieve sustainable growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; modification of assessment criteria; modification; authority; aid dependency; fiscal policy; inflation outlook; Rwandan authorities; development program; Credit; Monetary base; Exchange rates; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Third Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Waiver and Modification of Assessment Criteria-Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Third Review Under the Policy Support Instrument for Uganda. All end-December 2007 assessment criteria were met. Macroeconomic performance remains strong and the growth outlook remains positive. IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for waivers of nonobservance of four structural assessment criteria for end-May and end-June 2008. Nonobservance of these assessment criteria was largely owed to changes in program design in light of new information and reassessment of costs and priorities that do not compromise the integrity of the program.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; request; request for waiver; waiver; authority; implementation capacity; world fuel; financial market instability; modification of assessment criteria; Arrears; Monetary base; Current spending; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Second Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Modification of Assessment Criteria-Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund
Uganda’s medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF) aims at higher public savings based on spending restraint and rising domestic revenue. The Bank of Uganda (BOU) has successfully contained the one-time shocks to prices of increases in electricity tariffs and temporary sugar and diesel fuel shortages. In an environment of strong inflows, price stability remains the primary objective of monetary policy. A shallow financial sector limits Uganda’s ability to absorb foreign exchange inflows and is in itself a formidable obstacle to faster economic growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Uganda; debt; NPV; real GDP; program objective; PSI-supported program; infrastructure bottleneck; IMF's framework; debt management strategy; private sector; unwavering commitment; Monetary base; Debt sustainability; Africa; Global
Cover The Macroeconomics of Scaling Up Aid
The Macroeconomics of Scaling Up Aid
Lessons from Recent Experience
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Mr. Mumtaz Hussain
,
Mr. Shaun K. Roache
,
Ms. Amber A Mahone
,
Mr. Tokhir N Mirzoev
, and
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar

Abstract

This study analyzes key issues associated with large increases in aid, including absorptive capacity, Dutch disease, and inflation. The authors develop a framework that emphasizes the different roles of monetary and fiscal policy and apply it to the recent experience of five countries: Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda. These countries have often found it difficult to coordinate monetary and fiscal policy in the face of conflicting objectives, notably to spend the aid money on domestic goods and to avoid excessive exchange rate appreciation.

Keywords:
OP; nominal exchange rate; depreciation; deficit; exchange rate appreciation; terms-of-trade shock; treasury bill sale; currency depreciation; Real exchange rates; Inflation; Treasury bills and bonds; Monetary base; Africa
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 33, Issue 16
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
In July, the IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) released the findings of its review of the IMF-World Bank’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) process and the IMF’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF).The main aims of the wide-ranging evaluation were to determine whether these two initiatives have been implemented according to original expectations and whether the IMF has been sufficiently supportive of the broader PRSP process. David Goldsbrough, Acting Director of the IEO, spoke with Jacqueline Irving of the IMF Survey about the report’s findings.
Keywords:
SV; IMF Concludes; Rodrigo de Rato; IMF S; fund Facility; equivalent amount; growth Facility; IMF survey; IMF Deputy managing director; Poverty reduction strategy; Domestic debt; Exchange rate stability; Monetary base; Consumption; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Global; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria-Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund
Uganda showed strong macroeconomic stability under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) Arrangement. Executive Directors welcomed this development as well as the fiscal adjustment. They stressed the need for strengthening their policies for boosting economic growth and reducing poverty in the context of the Poverty Eradication Action Plan. They emphasized the need to strengthen monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate policies, accelerate structural reforms, and restructure the Uganda Development Bank Limited. They agreed that Uganda has successfully completed the second review under the PRGF Arrangement, and approved waiver.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; PRGF loan; authority; PRGF arrangement; inflation low; SDR; expenditure management systems; authorities' strong; government position; Poverty reduction; Budget planning and preparation; Monetary base; Southern Africa; East Africa; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Liberalization, Money Demand, and Inflation in Uganda
Mr. Jean-Claude Nachega
This paper uses cointegration analysis to investigate the empirical relationship among money, prices, income, and a vector of interest rates in Uganda from 1982 to 1998. Despite the substantial financial market liberalization that has taken place in the early 1990s, quarterly time-series data confirm that a stable relationship prevailed among real broad money, income, and domestic and foreign interest rates. The empirical results indicate income homogeneity, a strong own-rate-of-return effect, a high degree of international capital mobility and asset substitutability, and demonstrate that both domestic and foreign factors are important determinants of inflation in Uganda.
Keywords:
WP; money demand; exchange rate; treasury bill; Uganda; inflation; financial liberalization; cointegration; broad money velocity; demand function; exchange rate depreciation; velocity equation; depreciation rate; inflation process; Monetary base; Demand for money; Velocity of money; Interbank rates; Sub-Saharan Africa