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Ms. Catherine McAuliffe
,
Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena
, and
Mr. Masafumi Yabara
The East African Community (EAC) has been among the fastest growing regions in sub-Saharan Africa in the past decade or so. Nonetheless, the recent growth path will not be enough to achieve middle-income status and substantial poverty reduction by the end of the decade—the ambition of most countries in the region. This paper builds on methodologies established in the growth literature to identify a group of countries that achieved growth accelerations and sustained growth to use as benchmarks to evaluate the prospects, and potential constraints, for EAC countries to translate their recent growth upturn into sustained high growth. We find that EAC countries compare favorably to the group of sustained growth countries—macroeconomic and government stability, favorable business climate, and strong institutions—but important differences remain. EAC countries have a smaller share of exports, lower degree of financial deepening, lower levels of domestic savings, higher reliance on donor aid, and limited physical infrastructure and human capital. Policy choices to address some of these shortcomings could make a difference in whether the EAC follows the path of sustained growth or follows other countries where growth upturns later fizzled out. 
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
and
Yongzheng Yang

Abstract

In recent years, African policymakers have increasingly resorted to regional trade arrangements (RTAs) as a substitute for broad-based trade liberalization. This trend has long-term implications for the effectiveness of trade policy as a tool for poverty reduction and growth. This paper examines the record of RTAs in promoting trade and investment. It also explores policy measures that may help improve RTAs' performance.

International Monetary Fund
Part of the Fund’s periodic reviews of its policy advice to member countries, and responds to calls by Executive Directors for further staff analysis on improving the design of such programs. In the context of the recent discussions on the design of the broad range of Fund-supported programs, Directors also requested more in-depth analytical studies of disaggregated and homogenous groups, as well as a closer look at how progress towards external viability in low-income countries (LICs) can be improved. The review also seeks to address these requests.
Mr. Meredith A McIntyre
The paper analyses the potential trade impact of the forthcoming East African Community (EAC) customs union. It examines the trade linkages among the member countries of the EAC and the extent to which the introduction of the EAC common external tariff will liberalize their trade regimes. To gauge the potential trade impact of the formation of the customs union, simulations are conducted for Kenya. The empirical results indicate that the customs union will have a beneficial effect on Kenya's trade. The paper does not draw any conclusions on the potential welfare impact of the customs union. Finally, factors other than enhanced trade might influence Kenyan policymakers to pursue regional integration, and these include regional cooperation in "behind the border" reforms and the provision of public goods.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper reviews key trends in Haiti’s fiscal performance over the past decade and discusses various options for strengthening the fiscal system. It suggests that a key challenge will be to generate adequate resources to support development, which requires an increase in outlays on social programs, security, and infrastructure investment to at least the levels observed in other low-income countries. The paper reviews revenue trends and key features of the tax system. It also illustrates that Haiti’s public sector employment is far smaller than in other countries.
International Monetary Fund
The Fourth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and Requests for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria for Rwanda are analyzed. The implementation of policies improved considerably in 2004, although economic performance has been adversely affected by exogenous shocks. Strong activity in construction, transport, and communication raised growth to 4 percent, despite major electricity shortages. Macroeconomic and structural policies will aim at enhancing private sector development and accelerating productivity-enhancing strategies. Fiscal policies will focus on supporting macroeconomic stability and improving the quality of spending through a sizable reallocation to priority areas.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The year 2005 marks an important juncture for development as the international community takes stock of implementation of the Millennium Declaration—signed by 189 countries in 2000—and discusses how progress toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) can be accelerated. The MDGs set clear targets for reducing poverty and other human deprivations and for promoting sustainable development. What progress has been made toward these goals, and what should be done to accelerate it? What are the responsibilities of developing countries, developed countries, and international financial institutions? Global Monitoring Report 2005 addresses these questions. This report, the second in an annual series assessing progress on the MDGs and related development outcomes, has a special focus on Sub-Saharan Africa—the region that is farthest from the development goals and faces the toughest challenges in accelerating progress. The report finds that without rapid action to accelerate progress, the MDGs will be seriously jeopardized—especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, which is falling short on all the goals. It calls on the international community to seize the opportunities presented by the increased global attention to development to build momentum for the MDGs. The report presents in-depth analysis of the agenda and priorities for action. It discusses improvements in policies and governance that developing countries need to make to achieve stronger economic growth and scale up human development and relevant key services. It examines actions that developed countries need to take to provide more and better development aid and to reform their trade policies to improve market access for developing country exports. And it evaluates how international financial institutions can strengthen and sharpen their support for this agenda. Global Monitoring Report 2005 is essential reading for development practitioners and those interested in international affairs.

Yongzheng Yang
and
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
Regional trade arrangements (RTAs) in Africa have been ineffective in promoting trade and foreign direct investment. Relatively high external trade barriers and low resource complementarity between member countries limit both intra- and extraregional trade. Small market size, poor transport facilities and high trading costs make it difficult for African countries to reap the potential benefits of RTAs. To increase regional trade and investment, African countries need to undertake more broad-based liberalization and streamline existing RTAs, supported by improvements in infrastructure and trade facilitation. Early action to strengthen the domestic revenue base would help address concerns over revenue losses from trade liberalization.
International Monetary Fund
This 2002 Article IV Consultation highlights that since the conclusion of the last Article IV consultation in March 2001, Uganda has continued to implement disciplined financial policies and sound structural reforms that have helped to sustain robust economic growth despite an adverse external environment. In 2001/02 (July–June), real GDP growth increased to 6.6 percent, boosted by highly favorable weather conditions for agriculture and a surge in construction activity from a pickup in investment. A sharp drop in food crop prices resulted in negative headline inflation of -2.5 percent during the year.
International Monetary Fund
This paper assesses Uganda’s Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). The program for 2002/03–2004/05, which could be supported by a new PRGF arrangement, aims to increase real GDP growth to about 6½ percent a year on average, while holding annual inflation at about 3½ percent. Monetary and exchange rate policies will focus on maintaining stability in light of sizable sterilization operations. The authorities will rely on market-based monetary instruments and will adhere to a flexible exchange rate policy.