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Anubha Dhasmana
Foreign aid flows to poor, aid-dependent economies are highly volatile and pro-cyclical. Shortfalls in aid coincide with shortfalls in GDP and government revenues. This increases the consumption volatility in aid dependent countries, thereby causing substantial welfare losses. This paper finds that indexing aid flows to exogenous shocks like a change in the terms of trade can significantly improve the welfare of aid-dependent country by lowering its output and consumption volatility. Compared to the benchmark specification with stochastic aid flows, indexation of aid flows to terms of trade shocks can reduce the cost of business cycle fluctuations in the recipient country by four percent of permanent consumption. Moreover, use of indexed aid can allow donors to reduce the aid flows by three percent without lowering the level of welfare in the recipient country.
Ms. Mwanza Nkusu
Uganda's market-friendly development strategy and poverty reduction agenda have attracted large financial inflows, including aid. During 2000-02, concerns about a possible aid-induced Dutch disease were heightened by widening macroeconomic imbalances and an upward trend in the real effective exchange rate (REER). This paper shows that the REER remained broadly stable during a 10-year period and nontraditional exports increased remarkably, contrary to the predictions of the Dutch disease model. Also, economic growth was strong. This good performance is attributed to sound macroeconomic policies and important structural reforms, which have allowed an increased use of available production factors.
Isha Agrawal
,
Zafar U. Ahmed
,
Mr. Michael Mered
, and
Mr. Roger Nord
Tanzania’s adjustment program, which began in the mid-1980s, was accompanied by a sharp increase in the levels of foreign assistance. Previous studies, using published data, have not reflected much improvement in economic performance during the reform period. This paper attempts to shed new light on the relationship between adjustment and aid dependency in Tanzania, by adjusting the macroeconomic database to correct for data deficiencies in several important respects. A subsequent comparison with other sub-Saharan African countries shows that, contrary to traditional interpretation, Tanzania’s increased dependence on foreign assistance did not lead to a deterioration in domestic savings performance. Efficiency of investment, however, has been substantially lower in Tanzania.