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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Long-Run Biological Interest Rate for Pay-As-You-Go Pensions in Advanced and Developing Countries
Mr. Masahiro Nozaki
How much of an internal rate of return would a sustainable pay-as-you-go pension system offer current and future generations equally? The answer is the sum of the Long-Run Biological Interest Rates (LBIR), the real-world equivalent of Samuelson’s (1958) biological interest rate, and future productivity growth. Reflecting global population ageing, the median LBIR across 172 countries is as low as 1 percent per year. The LBIRs are particularly low in advanced countries, estimated to be negative in many of them, and require ample financial reserves today or future productivity growth to maintain participation in pension schemes. On the other hand, the LBIRs in less developed regions, such as in sub-Saharan Africa, are relatively high, indicating a potential to use a pay-as-you-go scheme to expand the coverage of public pensions. Raising the retirement age by five years brings up the LBIR by 40 basis points, significantly improving the long-run budget constraint of a pension scheme.
Keywords:
WP; rate of return; life expectancy; LBIR estimate; Pay-as-you-go pension; internal rate of return; pension reform; contribution rate; LBIR level; RCR decrease; replacement rate; medium-fertility variant; median LBIR; Pensions; Aging; Pension spending; Productivity; Retirement; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East; Europe; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Role of Productivity, Transportation Costs, and Barriers to Intersectoral Mobility in Structural Transformation
Cem Karayalcin
and
Mihaela Pintea
The process of economic development is characterized by substantial reallocations of resources across sectors. In this paper, we construct a multi-sector model in which there are barriers to the movement of labor from low-productivity traditional agriculture to modern sectors. With the barrier in place, we show that improvements in productivity in modern sectors (including agriculture) or reductions in transportation costs may lead to a rise in agricultural employment and through terms-oftrade effects may harm subsistence farmers if the traditional subsistence sector is larger than a critical level. This suggests that policy advice based on the earlier literature needs to be revised. Reducing barriers to mobility (through reductions in the cost of skill acquisition and institutional changes) and improving the productivity of subsistence farmers needs to precede policies designed to increase the productivity of modern sectors or decrease transportation costs.
Keywords:
WP; subsistence farming; terms of trade; Structural transformation; Subsistence agriculture; multi-sector models; Economic development; Transportation costs; transportation cost; agriculture sector; productivity improvement; modern agriculture; productivity difference; excess demand; improvement result; Agricultural sector; Productivity; Transportation; Manufacturing; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Dynamic Implications of Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries
Mr. Ales Bulir
,
Alma Romero-Barrutieta
, and
Jose Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado
The effects of debt relief on incentives to accumulate debt, consume, and invest are an important concern for donors and recipients. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy with a minimum consumption requirement and an endogenous relief probability, we show that excessive debt accumulation is consistent with an anticipation of a future debt relief. Simulations of the calibrated model using 1982-2006 Ugandan data suggest that debt-relief episodes are likely to have only a temporary impact on the level of debt in low-income countries, while being associated with more consumption and less invesment. The long-run debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated to be about twice as high with debt relief than without it.
Keywords:
WP; debt forgiveness; debt-to-GDP ratio; interest rate; Debt relief; general equilibrium model; small open economy; donor debt-relief policy; productivity shock; debt-relief rule; probability value; debt-relief probability; debt-relief lottery; debt-relief shock; debt-relief scenario; policy rule; Consumption; Productivity; Disposable income; Sub-Saharan Africa; debt-relief episode; debt-relief function; IMF Institute
Cover Sustaining and Accelerating Pro-Poor Growth in Africa
Sustaining and Accelerating Pro-Poor Growth in Africa
Mr. Kevin J Carey
,
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
, and
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

Abstract

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has recently shown signs of improvement, but is still short of levels needed to attain the Millennium Development Goals. Economists have placed increasing emphasis on understanding the policies that promote sustained jumps in medium-term growth, and the paper applies this approach to African countries. The evidence presented finds an important growth-supporting role for particular kinds of institutions and policies, but also highlights aspects of growth that are still not well understood. The paper includes policy guidance for ensuring that the poor benefit from growth.

Keywords:
ISI; SI; country; policy; growth rate; Dem. rep.; sub-Saharan Africa data; conflict country; World Bank's country policy; sub-Saharan Africa country; growth opportunity; country case studies; Income inequality; Poverty reduction; Total factor productivity; Inclusive growth; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; growth in sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the underlying sources of growth in Uganda, suggesting that the contribution to growth from total factor productivity has been minor, while the high population growth poses a significant challenge to sustain a rapid improvement in living standards. The paper takes a closer look at the monetary transmission mechanisms in Uganda, aimed at assessing the appropriate choice of intermediate target and mix of liquidity sterilization instruments. It also focuses on the recent financial sector reforms undertaken by the government.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Uganda; bank; TFP growth; high-productivity sector; exchange rate appreciation; sterilization operations; technical efficiency; financing cost; asset quality; capital base; risk portfolio; lending market; term financing; interest rate spread; low-productivity sector; price objective; growth prospect; forecast inflation; Total factor productivity; Inflation; Productivity; Commercial banks; Production growth; Sub-Saharan Africa