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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 12 items for :

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Cover Policy Papers
Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects For Low-Income Countries—2024
International Monetary Fund
and
World Bank
The outlook for Low-Income Countries (LICs) is gradually improving, but they face persistent macroeconomic vulnerabilities, including liquidity challenges due to high debt service. There is significant heterogeneity among LICs: the poorest and most fragile countries have faced deep scarring from the pandemic, while those with diversified economies and Frontier Markets are faring better. Achieving inclusive growth and building resilience are essential for LICs to converge with more advanced economies and meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Building resilience will also be critical in the context of a more shock-prone world. This requires both decisive domestic actions, including expanding and better targeting Social Safety Nets (SSNs), and substantial external support, including adequate financing, policy advice, capacity development and, where needed, debt relief. The Fund is further stepping up its support through targeted policy advice, capacity building, and financing.
Keywords:
Low-Income Countries; Heterogeneity; Debt vulnerability; Resilience building; Inclusive growth towards SDGs; Financing needs and external support; Social Safety Nets; poverty rate; means testing; poverty gap; aggregate poverty gap; SSNS spending; prospects in low-income countries; poverty threshold exit poverty; reform scenario; transparency policy; FAD financing tool; financial support; Poverty reduction; Household consumption; Inflation; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Improving Crop Yields in Sub-Saharan Africa - What Does the East African Data Say
Mr. Alun H. Thomas
Recent micro level data from East Africa is used to benchmark aggregate data and assess the role of agricultural inputs in explaining variation in crop yields on smallholding plots. Fertilizer, improved seeds, protection against erosion and pesticides improve crop yields in Rwanda and Ethiopia, but not Uganda, possibly associated with lack of use there. With all positive yield determinants in place, wheat and maize yields could increase fourfold. The data hints at the negative effect of climate change on yields and the benefits of accompanying measures to mitigate its adverse impact (access to finance and protection against erosion). The adverse effect of crop damage on yields varies between 12/13 percent (Rwanda, Uganda) to 36 percent (Ethiopia). Protection against erosion and investment financing mitigate these effects considerably.
Keywords:
WP; yield; crop; crop yield; Rwanda; Ethiopia; East Africa; inputs; crop damage; yield determinant; Ethiopia crop; aggregate yield data; Agroindustries; Consumption; Agricultural sector; Agricultural commodities; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Climate change
Cover IMF Working Papers
On the First-Round Effects of International Food Price Shocks: the Role of the Asset Market Structure
Mr. Rafael A Portillo
and
Luis-Felipe Zanna
We develop a tractable small open-economy model to study the first-round effects of international food price shocks in developing countries. We define first-round effects as changes in headline inflation that, holding core inflation constant, help implement relative price adjustments. The model features three goods (food, a generic traded good and a non-traded good), varying degrees of tradability of the food basket, and alternative international asset market structures (complete and incomplete markets, and financial autarky). First-round effects depend crucially on the asset market structure and the different transmission mechanisms they trigger. Under complete markets, inter-temporal substitution prevails, making the inflationary impact of international food prices proportional to the food share in consumption, which in developing economies is typically large. Under financial autarky, the income channel is dominant, and first-round effects are instead proportional to the country's food balance—the difference between the country's food endowment and its consumption—which in developing countries is typically small. The latter result holds regardless of the degree of food tradability. Incomplete markets yield a combination of the two extremes. Our results cast some doubt on the view that international food price shocks are inherently inflationary in developing countries.
Keywords:
WP; core inflation; Food Price Shocks; First-Round Effects; Developing Countries; New-Keynesian Models; Asset Market Structure; IM solution; nominal exchange rate; headline inflation; solution nest; inflation dynamics; market clearing condition; nominal price; Inflation; Consumption; Food prices; Securities markets; Commodity price shocks; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Dynamic Implications of Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries
Mr. Ales Bulir
,
Alma Romero-Barrutieta
, and
Jose Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado
The effects of debt relief on incentives to accumulate debt, consume, and invest are an important concern for donors and recipients. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy with a minimum consumption requirement and an endogenous relief probability, we show that excessive debt accumulation is consistent with an anticipation of a future debt relief. Simulations of the calibrated model using 1982-2006 Ugandan data suggest that debt-relief episodes are likely to have only a temporary impact on the level of debt in low-income countries, while being associated with more consumption and less invesment. The long-run debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated to be about twice as high with debt relief than without it.
Keywords:
WP; debt forgiveness; debt-to-GDP ratio; interest rate; Debt relief; general equilibrium model; small open economy; donor debt-relief policy; productivity shock; debt-relief rule; probability value; debt-relief probability; debt-relief lottery; debt-relief shock; debt-relief scenario; policy rule; Consumption; Productivity; Disposable income; Sub-Saharan Africa; debt-relief episode; debt-relief function; IMF Institute
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Short-Run Macroeconomics of Aid Inflows: Understanding the Interaction of Fiscal and Reserve Policy
Luis-Felipe Zanna
,
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Mr. Tokhir N Mirzoev
, and
Mr. Rafael A Portillo
We develop a tractable open-economy new-Keynesian model with two sectors to analyze the short-term effects of aid-financed fiscal expansions. We distinguish between spending the aid, which is under the control of the fiscal authorities, and absorbing the aid-using the aid to finance a higher current account deficit-which is influenced by the central bank's reserves policy when access to international capital markets is limited. The standard treatment of the transfer problem implicitly assumes spending equals absorption. Here, in contrast, a policy mix that results in spending but not absorbing the aid generates demand pressures and results in an increase in real interest rates. It can also lead to a temporary real depreciation if demand pressures are strong enough to threaten external balance. Certain features of low income countries, such as limited participation in domestic financial markets, make a real depreciation more likely by amplifying demand pressures when aid is spent but not absorbed. The results from our model can help understand the recent experience of Uganda, which saw an increase in government spending following a surge in aid yet experienced a real depreciation and an increase in real interest rates.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; exchange rate
Cover IMF Working Papers
Welfare Gains of Aid Indexation in Small Open Economies
Anubha Dhasmana
Foreign aid flows to poor, aid-dependent economies are highly volatile and pro-cyclical. Shortfalls in aid coincide with shortfalls in GDP and government revenues. This increases the consumption volatility in aid dependent countries, thereby causing substantial welfare losses. This paper finds that indexing aid flows to exogenous shocks like a change in the terms of trade can significantly improve the welfare of aid-dependent country by lowering its output and consumption volatility. Compared to the benchmark specification with stochastic aid flows, indexation of aid flows to terms of trade shocks can reduce the cost of business cycle fluctuations in the recipient country by four percent of permanent consumption. Moreover, use of indexed aid can allow donors to reduce the aid flows by three percent without lowering the level of welfare in the recipient country.
Keywords:
WP; business cycle; developing country
Cover IMF Survey
Examen par le BIE de la stratégie de réduction de la pauvreté: Les programmes du FMI pourraient combattre la pauvreté plus efficacement
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
L’édition web du Bulletin du FMI est mise à jour plusieurs fois par semaine et contient de nombreux articles sur des questions de politique générale et de politique économique d'actualité. Accédez aux dernières recherches du FMI, lisez des interviews et écoutez des podcasts proposés par les principaux économistes du FMI sur des questions importantes de l'économie mondiale. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; IMF Concludes; Rodrigo de Rato; IMF S
Cover IMF Survey
Evaluación de la OEI de la estrategia de lucha contra la pobreza: Órgano fiscalizador del FMI dice que los programas de lucha contra la pobreza no cumplen su potencial
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La edición en Internet del Boletín del FMI, que se actualiza varias veces a la semana, contiene numerosos artículos sobre temas de actualidad en el ámbito de las políticas y la economía. Consulte las últimas investigaciones del FMI, lea entrevistas y escuche podcasts de los principales economistas del FMI sobre importantes temas relacionados con la economía mundial. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; IMF Concludes; Rodrigo de Rato; IMF S
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 33, Issue 16
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
In July, the IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) released the findings of its review of the IMF-World Bank’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) process and the IMF’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF).The main aims of the wide-ranging evaluation were to determine whether these two initiatives have been implemented according to original expectations and whether the IMF has been sufficiently supportive of the broader PRSP process. David Goldsbrough, Acting Director of the IEO, spoke with Jacqueline Irving of the IMF Survey about the report’s findings.
Keywords:
SV; IMF Concludes; Rodrigo de Rato; IMF S; fund Facility; equivalent amount; growth Facility; IMF survey; IMF Deputy managing director; Poverty reduction strategy; Domestic debt; Exchange rate stability; Monetary base; Consumption; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Global; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
Aid and Fiscal Management
Mr. Timothy D. Lane
and
Mr. Ales Bulir
This paper focuses on the macroeconomic aspects of fiscal management in aid-receiving countries. Despite the declining share of aid in budgets of donor countries, aid continues to play an important role in many developing countries. The paper first discusses the implications of aid in the economy as a whole and highlights the possibility of Dutch-disease effects of aid. Second, it discusses the implications of aid for short-term fiscal policy management?in particular, how actual or anticipated changes in aid receipts should be reflected in government spending.
Keywords:
WP; disbursement; aid disbursement; investment; goods; Foreign aid; fiscal management; economic growth; expenditure side; goods sector; nontradable goods; fiscal policy management; Consumption; Sub-Saharan Africa