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Luis-Felipe Zanna
,
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Mr. Tokhir N Mirzoev
, and
Mr. Rafael A Portillo
We develop a tractable open-economy new-Keynesian model with two sectors to analyze the short-term effects of aid-financed fiscal expansions. We distinguish between spending the aid, which is under the control of the fiscal authorities, and absorbing the aid-using the aid to finance a higher current account deficit-which is influenced by the central bank's reserves policy when access to international capital markets is limited. The standard treatment of the transfer problem implicitly assumes spending equals absorption. Here, in contrast, a policy mix that results in spending but not absorbing the aid generates demand pressures and results in an increase in real interest rates. It can also lead to a temporary real depreciation if demand pressures are strong enough to threaten external balance. Certain features of low income countries, such as limited participation in domestic financial markets, make a real depreciation more likely by amplifying demand pressures when aid is spent but not absorbed. The results from our model can help understand the recent experience of Uganda, which saw an increase in government spending following a surge in aid yet experienced a real depreciation and an increase in real interest rates.
Mr. Timothy D. Lane
and
Mr. Ales Bulir
This paper focuses on the macroeconomic aspects of fiscal management in aid-receiving countries. Despite the declining share of aid in budgets of donor countries, aid continues to play an important role in many developing countries. The paper first discusses the implications of aid in the economy as a whole and highlights the possibility of Dutch-disease effects of aid. Second, it discusses the implications of aid for short-term fiscal policy management?in particular, how actual or anticipated changes in aid receipts should be reflected in government spending.
Mr. Calvin A McDonald
,
Mr. Christian Schiller
, and
Mr. Kenichi Ueda
Inequality in Uganda rose during 1989–95, although this rise moderated in 1993–95. In 1993–95, real food consumption became more equal. Regional and urban-rural disparities in income and variations in income accruing to individuals with different educational levels principally explain “between group inequality.” While informal safety nets appear to work for Ugandan middle-class families, a lack of mutual insurance among poor production workers and farmers accentuates the inequality trends. An expansion of formal safety nets would help this segment of the population. The intrasectoral allocation and benefit incidence of expenditures on education and health can be improved to reduce inequality.