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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 33 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Uganda’s Fifth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Economic recovery continues to gain strength following a rapid decline in inflation, favorable agriculture and robust industrial and services activity. Fiscal financing and foreign portfolio flows are facing headwinds amid tight global financial conditions and the passage of the Anti-Homosexuality Act in May 2023. The authorities are implementing fiscal consolidation to contain vulnerabilities, maintaining a moderately tight monetary stance in the face of upside risks to inflation and undertaking reforms to improve governance and reduce corruption. All September 2023 quantitative performance criteria were met, as well as most June 2023 indicative targets (ITs). Preliminary data suggest that the December 2023 IT for net credit to government and inflation were met but the IT for net international reserves was missed. Four out of seven structural benchmarks for the current review were met on or before test dates, and one was completed with a delay.
Keywords:
government debt service; inflation risk; excise duty regime; inflation outlook; authorities' effort; ECF program; financing risk; Inflation; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Credit; Imports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable
Omer Faruk Akbal
,
Mr. Seung M Choi
,
Mr. Futoshi Narita
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.
Keywords:
Developing economies; fragile and conflict-affected states; GDP; low-income countries; nowcasting; sub-Saharan Africa; GDP statistic; panel Nowcasting; data availability; growth data; annex II; data availablity; Commodity prices; Purchasing power parity; Data collection; Export fluctuations; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Second and Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement; and Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Rephasing of Access; Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Uganda’s Second and Third Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Rephasing of Access. The Ugandan authorities are persevering in their reforms despite facing multiple shocks from an unfavorable external environment and new public health challenges. The authorities remain committed to implementing reforms supported by the ECF. Maintaining macroeconomic stability, improving budget composition, and reducing government financing needs will help boost private sector growth and improve people’s livelihoods. Continued resolute and timely implementation of structural reforms, including anticorruption and governance measures, remains key for the success of the program. The Ebola outbreak, rising security challenges, and further spillovers from the war in Ukraine represent the main risks. Uganda’s moderate level of public debt and continued access to concessional financing would provide space to achieve program objectives. A structural benchmark on the asset declaration regime was converted into a prior action for the review and has been met.
Keywords:
data release; energy price shock; staff appraisal; high frequency indicator; core inflation; Inflation; Credit; Imports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Search Externalities in Firm-to-Firm Trade
I develop a model of firm-to-firm search and matching to show that the impact of falling trade costs on firm sourcing decisions and consumer welfare depends on the relative size of search externalities in domestic and international markets. These externalities can be positive if firms share information about potential matches, or negative if the market is congested. Using unique firm-to-firm transaction-level data from Uganda, I document empirical evidence consistent with positive externalities in international markets and negative externalities in domestic markets. I then build a dynamic quantitative version of the model and show that, in Uganda, a 25% reduction in trade costs led to a 3.7% increase in consumer welfare, 12% of which was due to search externalities.
Keywords:
Firm-to-Firm Trade; VAT Data; Search-and-Matching; Importing; transport cost reduction; buyer-supplier search; search externality; welfare gains from trade; consumer welfare; Imports; Labor market frictions; Search models; Value-added tax; East Africa; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
A Rebalancing Act for China and Africa: The Effects of China’s Rebalancing on Sub-Saharan Africa’s Trade and Growth
Mr. Roger Nord
and
Ms. Wenjie Chen
How does China’s new growth model affect sub-Saharan Africa? To address this question, this paper first looks at the growing ties between China and Africa; attempts to estimate more precisely the impact on growth through the trade channel; and finally draws some policy implications regarding whether this means an end of the Africa Rising narrative or merely the beginning of a new chapter.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; center; China; commodity; Sub-Saharan Africa; commodity exporter; China's growth; frontier economy; investment-driven commodities exporter; growth experience; FDI flow; sub-Saharan Africa result; idiosyncratic shock; Bloomberg L.P.; commodity price system; Customs dataset; countries in sub-Saharan Africa; Exports; Commodity prices; Foreign direct investment; Direction of trade; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
How Solid Is Economic Growth in the East African Community?
Mr. Nikoloz Gigineishvili
,
Mr. Paolo Mauro
, and
Ke Wang
Is rapid economic growth experienced by the East African Community during the past decade built on solid foundations? To gain some clues, we use a variety of newly-collected and existing data sources to analyze the structural transformation of output and exports, as well as indicators of their quality and sophistication. The move from agriculture to a wide range of other sectors—bodes well for continued growth, as do gradual improvements in quality. Yet, no clear winners on the production side seem to have emerged, to embed a durable comparative advantage in international markets. These observations may instill a note of caution against projecting rapid growth into the distant future.
Keywords:
WP; export; economic growth; growth rate; product; Structural transformation; Burundi; Kenya; Rwanda; Tanzania; Uganda; exports product; export product diversification; EAC economy; top ten export destination; EAC countries' economic growth performance; goods export category; export structure; Exports; Agricultural sector; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
Research Bulletin, June 2014
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Articles in the June 2014 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin look at “The Rise and Fall of Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics” (Joong Shik Kang and Jay C. Shambaugh) and “The Two Sides of the Same Coin?: Rebalancing and Inclusive Growth in China” (Il Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Xin Wang). The Q&A looks at “Seven Questions on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries” (Andrew Berg, Luisa Charry, Rafael A. Portillo, and Jan Vleck). This issue of the Research Bulletin includes updated listings of IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. Readers can also find information on free access to a featured article from “IMF Economic Review.”
Keywords:
IRB; IMF research bulletin; bulletin; journal website; policy relevance; author guideline; debt challenge; sample content; Current account deficits; Trade balance; Income inequality; Current account; Personal income; Global; Caribbean; Baltics; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The East African Community: Prospects for Sustained Growth
Ms. Catherine McAuliffe
,
Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena
, and
Mr. Masafumi Yabara
The East African Community (EAC) has been among the fastest growing regions in sub-Saharan Africa in the past decade or so. Nonetheless, the recent growth path will not be enough to achieve middle-income status and substantial poverty reduction by the end of the decade—the ambition of most countries in the region. This paper builds on methodologies established in the growth literature to identify a group of countries that achieved growth accelerations and sustained growth to use as benchmarks to evaluate the prospects, and potential constraints, for EAC countries to translate their recent growth upturn into sustained high growth. We find that EAC countries compare favorably to the group of sustained growth countries—macroeconomic and government stability, favorable business climate, and strong institutions—but important differences remain. EAC countries have a smaller share of exports, lower degree of financial deepening, lower levels of domestic savings, higher reliance on donor aid, and limited physical infrastructure and human capital. Policy choices to address some of these shortcomings could make a difference in whether the EAC follows the path of sustained growth or follows other countries where growth upturns later fizzled out. 
Keywords:
WP; EAC country; EAC member; growth acceleration; EAC economy; EAC growth; Accelerated growth; sustained growth; benchmarking; East African Community; sub-Saharan Africa; EAC integration; exchange rate; private sector; common market; Exports; Financial sector; Government debt management; Productivity; Real exchange rates; Africa; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2011, Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2011, Sub-Saharan Africa
Recovery and New Risks
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa's economic recovery is well under way, although among country groups there is variation in the speed of the recovery. In most of the region's low-income countries and among the seven oil exporters growth is almost back to precrisis levels. However, in the region's middle-income countries, including South Africa, the recovery has been more gradual. This Regional Economic Outlook describes the impact of recent economic developments---sharp increases in food and fuel prices will need fiscal interventions targeting the poor, while higher oil prices will be a boon to some countries and adversely affect others. Policy adjustments are needed to move away from the supportive stance of the last few years but should be balanced against the need to alleviate the impact of rising food prices on poor households.

Keywords:
REO; fuel price increase; price; Sub-Saharan Africa; spending; EAC export; EAC member; food price; portfolio inflow; inflation rate; Food prices; Capital inflows; Inflation; Exports; Commodity prices; Global; Africa; Middle East; North Africa; EAC trade; Emerging and frontier financial markets
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth in Africa Under Peace and Market Reforms
Ms. Olessia Korbut
,
Mr. Gonzalo Salinas
, and
Cheikh A. Gueye
Economic stagnation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has led several economists to question the region’s ability to attain sustained economic growth, some of them arguing for the need to shift away from natural resource - based exports. Yet, we find that low growth has not been common to all SSA countries and that those that achieved political stability and significantly liberalized their economies experienced high growth in income per capita, as high as ASEAN-5 countries. This group of SSA countries attained high growth while maintaining their specialization in natural resource exports. Our analysis also rejects the hypothesis of reverse causality: that good growth performance allowed countries to attain political stability or liberalize their economies.
Keywords:
WP; country; liberalization; state interventionism; growth; Africa; structural adjustment; SSA country; liberalization program; SSA economy; natural resource; Natural resources; Personal income; Comparative advantage; Exports; East Asia; South Asia