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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa's prospects have deteriorated somewhat and the risks have increased, according to this report. Growth in the region is projected to dip to 6 percent in 2008 and 2009. The fall is due mainly to the global food and fuel price shock, which has weighed particularly on growth in oil-importing countries, and to the global financial market turmoil, which has slowed global growth and demand for Africa's exports. Inflation is expected to rise to 12 percent in 2008, mainly on account of the food and fuel price shock. As a result of rising prices, particularly of food, poverty may well be on the increase in 2008. In 2009, inflation should ease to 10 percent, helped by recent commodity price declines. There are significant risks to the outlook related to a potentially deeper and longer period of global financial turmoil and resulting slowdown in global activity, and substantial uncertainty concerning commodity prices.

International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Ms. Jan Gunning
and
Mr. Paul Collier
On the basis of a comparative study of 23 episodes involving commodity price shocks we find that both the public and private sectors typically save around half of a windfall gain resulting from a price rise. We argue that private windfalls should be left with the private sector rather than taxed. The focus of policy towards windfalls should be monetary rather than fiscal. The central bank should accommodate aggregate changes in the demand for financial assets. The private sector will initially wish to increase its claims on the central bank as it saves the windfall, but will then reduce them as portfolios are switched into real assets.