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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 50 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics x
  • Expenditures, Public x
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Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Develop and Implement a Medium-Term Fiscal Framework
Teresa R Curristine
,
Isabell Adenauer
,
Virginia Alonso-Albarran
,
John Grinyer
,
Koon Hui Tee
,
Claude P Wendling
, and
Delphine Moretti
This Note provides guidance on developing and implementing a medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF). MTFFs aim to promote fiscal discipline and sustainability, transparency, and better-informed fiscal decisions. An MTFF comprises a set of institutional arrangements for prioritizing, presenting, reporting, and managing fiscal aggregates - revenue, expenditure, balance, and debt - generally over a three-to-five-year period. It incorporates a fiscal strategy, medium-term projections of key macroeconomic variables and fiscal aggregates, and ceilings on total expenditure to guide subsequent annual budgets. By introducing a medium-term perspective into fiscal and budgetary decision making, MTFFs provide a clearer understanding of the impact, trade-offs, and risks of policy choices. MTFFs contribute to enhancing transparency and accountability by communicating the government’s medium-term fiscal goals, policies, and fiscal performance. Ultimately, clarity on medium-term fiscal plans and on their effective implementation can bolster confidence in the government’s ability to manage its finances prudently and competently. In addition to providing guidance on how to design an MTFF and the institutional and technical arrangements needed to support implementation, the Note discusses key challenges and presents country examples from across the globe by income group and concludes with lessons learned.
Keywords:
fiscal frameworks; fiscal planning; budget cycles; MTFF; medium-term fiscal framework; emerging market economy country example; MTFF specification; koon hui tee; MTFF projection Tool; MTFF time horizon; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal rules; Fiscal risks; Caribbean
Cover Policy Papers
Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects For Low-Income Countries—2024
International Monetary Fund
and
World Bank
The outlook for Low-Income Countries (LICs) is gradually improving, but they face persistent macroeconomic vulnerabilities, including liquidity challenges due to high debt service. There is significant heterogeneity among LICs: the poorest and most fragile countries have faced deep scarring from the pandemic, while those with diversified economies and Frontier Markets are faring better. Achieving inclusive growth and building resilience are essential for LICs to converge with more advanced economies and meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Building resilience will also be critical in the context of a more shock-prone world. This requires both decisive domestic actions, including expanding and better targeting Social Safety Nets (SSNs), and substantial external support, including adequate financing, policy advice, capacity development and, where needed, debt relief. The Fund is further stepping up its support through targeted policy advice, capacity building, and financing.
Keywords:
Low-Income Countries; Heterogeneity; Debt vulnerability; Resilience building; Inclusive growth towards SDGs; Financing needs and external support; Social Safety Nets; poverty rate; means testing; poverty gap; aggregate poverty gap; SSNS spending; prospects in low-income countries; poverty threshold exit poverty; reform scenario; transparency policy; FAD financing tool; financial support; Poverty reduction; Household consumption; Inflation; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: 2021 Article IV Consultation and First Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests for Modifications of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The authorities have reacted to the COVID-19 crisis in an appropriate manner, including through increased spending on health and a rollout of the vaccination program. Nevertheless, the deterioration of socio-economic indicators during the pandemic could create scars that would significantly lower growth if left unaddressed.
Keywords:
vis-à-vis nonresident; asset declaration regime; economic reform reform program; business-centric reform; excise duty regime; COVID-19; Credit; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Expenditure and Inclusive Growth - A Survey
Mr. Younes Zouhar
,
Jon Jellema
,
Nora Lustig
, and
Mohamed Trabelsi
This paper explores the role of public expenditure in fostering inclusive growth. It starts with a presentation of salient features of public expenditure. Then, it lays out an analytical framework that describes the channels through which public expenditure affects inequality and poverty in the short and long term. Based on a review of the empirical literature, it discusses the policy options. Finally, the paper assesses the role of key factors such as the initial conditions, and the institutions, in shaping the inclusive spending policies.
Keywords:
public expenditure; social spending; inclusive growth; inequality; poverty; mean inequality impact effectiveness; poverty rate; spending policy; policy option; Income inequality; Income; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Request for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper analyzes Uganda’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. The Ugandan economy is severely affected by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In order to contain the impact of the pandemic, the authorities have increased health spending, strengthened social protection to the most vulnerable, and enhanced their support to the private sector. The Bank of Uganda has appropriately reduced interest rates and provided liquidity to safeguard financial stability, while maintaining exchange rate flexibility. The weakening economic conditions emanating from the Covid-19 pandemic have put significant pressures on revenue collection, expenditure, reserves and the exchange rate, creating urgent large external and fiscal financing needs. The IMF continues to monitor Uganda’s situation closely and stands ready to provide policy advice and further support as needed. The authorities have also committed to put in place targeted transparency and accountability measures to ensure the appropriate use of emergency financing. The IMF’s emergency financial support under the RCF, along with the additional donor financing it is expected to help catalyze, will help address Uganda’s urgent balance of payments and budget support needs.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IMF lending tracker; financing; emergency expenditure; emergency financing request; health preparedness plan; IMF's emergency financial support; Credit; Imports; Budget planning and preparation; Global; COVID-19
Cover Departmental Papers
Lessons for Effective Fiscal Decentralization in Sub-Saharan Africa
Mr. Niko A Hobdari
,
Vina Nguyen
,
Mr. Salvatore Dell'Erba
, and
Mr. Edgardo Ruggiero
Fiscal decentralization is becoming a pressing issue in a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa, reflecting demands for a greater local voice in spending decisions and efforts to strengthen social cohesion. Against this backdrop, this paper seeks to distill the lessons for an effective fiscal decentralization reform, focusing on the macroeconomic aspects. The main findings for sub-Saharan African countries that have decentralized, based on an empirical analysis and four case studies (Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda), are as follows: • Determinants and effectiveness: Empirical results suggest that (1) the major driving forces behind fiscal decentralization in sub-Saharan Africa include efforts to defuse ethnic conflicts, the initial level of income, and the urban-ization rate, whereas strength of democracy is not an important determi-nant for decentralization; and (2) decentralization in sub-Saharan Africa is associated with higher growth in the presence of stronger institutions. • Spending assignments: The allocation of spending across levels of gov-ernment in the four case studies is broadly consistent with best practice. However, in Uganda, unlike in the other three case studies, subnational governments have little flexibility to make spending decisions as a result of a deconcentrated rather than a devolved system of government. • Own revenue: The assignment of taxing powers is broadly in line with best practice in the four case studies, with the bulk of subnational revenue coming from property taxes and from fees for local services. However, own revenues are a very small fraction of subnational spending, reflecting weak cadaster systems and a high level of informality in the economy.
Keywords:
national government; IMF government finance statistics database; effectiveness indicator; authorities in South Africa; decentralization reform; Fiscal federalism; Income distribution; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Medium-Term Budget Frameworks in Sub-Saharan African Countries
Mr. Richard I Allen
,
Taz Chaponda
,
Ms. Lesley Fisher
, and
Rohini Ray
More than 15 years ago, many countries in sub-Saharan Africa embarked on a program of budgetary reform, an important element of which was a medium-term budget framework (MTBF). This working paper focuses on the performance of these frameworks in six countries–– Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia. It assesses the effectiveness of MTBFs in achieving improved fiscal discipline, resource allocation, and certainty of funding, as well as wider economic and social criteria such as poverty reduction and more efficient public investment. In most countries, early successes were not sustained, and budgetary outcomes did not improve, partly for technical reasons, such as poor data and inadequate forecasting methodologies, but also because the reforms were largely supply driven. The paper argues that the development of MTBFs typically falls into four distinct phases. To make the transition from one phase to the next, developing countries should focus on building their capability in macrofiscal forecasting and analysis, and in improving the credibility of the annual budget process.
Keywords:
WP; country; case country; budget; medium-term expenditure frameworks; public financial management; sub-Saharan Africa; budget office; PFM system; budget framework; challenge function; budget review process; program budget; budget preparation process; Budget planning and preparation; Medium-term budget frameworks; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: 2017 Article IV Consultation and Eighth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uganda’s recent economic performance has been sound, notwithstanding a slowdown in growth. Real GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 3.9 percent in FY2016/17, reflecting domestic factors and external headwinds, including the drought in the Horn of Africa. The banking sector remains well-capitalized overall. However, elevated nonperforming loans have constrained bank lending which contributed to the growth slowdown. Food price inflation increased owing to the drought, but core inflation was 5.1 percent in May 2017, in line with the Bank of Uganda’s target. The outlook is broadly favorable. With steadfast policy implementation and assuming improved weather conditions, growth could accelerate to 5 percent in FY2017/18.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; core inflation; rate; report; food price inflation; payment arrears; inflation outlook; staff appraisal; Bank of Uganda's Monetary Policy Committee; Arrears; Credit; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Sixth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for a One-Year Extension-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper review Uganda’s economic performance under the program supported by the Policy Support Instrument. Despite sluggish growth in credit to the private sector, GDP growth has been supported by the implementation of large public investments. Inflation has started to decelerate toward the medium-term target, allowing for monetary policy easing. Adverse weather developments, regional and global-political and economic uncertainties, and post-election fiscal pressures may challenge the achievement of short-term growth and inflation objectives. However, provided progress on structural reforms is accelerated, the medium-term outlook remains positive, supported by future oil production, increased regional integration and inter-regional trade, and implementation of significant infrastructure projects.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy easing; Act amendment; Uganda's economy; Uganda's program; core inflation; inflation consultation clause; Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Government finance statistics; Global; East Africa
Cover Policy Papers
Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth
International Monetary Fund
This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
Keywords:
PP; GDP growth; wage; financial crisis; total factor productivity; labor market; tax burden; fiscal policy; Fiscal consolidation; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe