We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchange rate on economic growth, the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. However, there is no evidence in the literature that Dutch disease reduces overall economic growth. Policy responses should aim at adequately managing the boom and the risks associated with it.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
SlNCE the dissolution of the Soviet Union, most of the former member states have retained the ruble as their national currency but have followed independent monetary policies. Such a combination is not sustainable. With mounting disarray in the ruble area, each state must now quickly adopt either a common monetary policy or a separate national currency.