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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 24 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Rwanda: 2010 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Policy Support Instrument-Staff Report; Public Information Notice and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Rwanda.
International Monetary Fund
Satisfactory implementation of the economic program supported by the Policy Support Instrument has helped Rwanda during the global economic downturn. The program focuses on maintaining a sustainable fiscal position; strengthening monetary and exchange rate policies; and supporting growth with structural reforms to diversify the export base and improve the business environment. The authorities are committed to assess the inflation to safeguard the gains made in macroeconomic stability that currently underpin the economic recovery. Executive Directors emphasized the need to maintain macroeconomic stability to achieve sustainable growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; modification of assessment criteria; modification; authority; aid dependency; fiscal policy; inflation outlook; Rwandan authorities; development program; Credit; Monetary base; Exchange rates; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomics of Medium-Term Aid Scaling-Up Scenarios
Mr. Rafael A Portillo
,
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Jan Gottschalk
, and
Luis-Felipe Zanna
We develop a model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of a scaling-up of aid and assess the implications of different policy responses. The model features key structural characteristics of low-income countries, including varying degrees of public investment efficiency and a learning-by-doing (LBD) externality that captures Dutch disease effects. On the policy front, it distinguishes between spending the aid, which is controlled by the fiscal authority, and absorbing the aid - financing a higher current account deficit - which is influenced by the central bank's reserve accumulation policies. We calibrate the model to Uganda and run several experiments. We find that a policy mix that results in full spending and absorption of aid can generate temporary demand and real exchange rate appreciation pressures, but also have a positive effect on real GDP in the medium term, through higher public capital. Full spending with partial absorption, on the other hand, may stem appreciation pressures but can also induce adverse medium-term real GDP effects, through private sector crowding out. When aid is very inefficiently invested and there are strong LBD externalities, aid can be harmful, and partial absorption policies may be justified. But in this case, a welfare improving solution is to defer spending or - even better if possible - raise its efficiency.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; exchange rate; government spending
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Short-Run Macroeconomics of Aid Inflows: Understanding the Interaction of Fiscal and Reserve Policy
Luis-Felipe Zanna
,
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Mr. Tokhir N Mirzoev
, and
Mr. Rafael A Portillo
We develop a tractable open-economy new-Keynesian model with two sectors to analyze the short-term effects of aid-financed fiscal expansions. We distinguish between spending the aid, which is under the control of the fiscal authorities, and absorbing the aid-using the aid to finance a higher current account deficit-which is influenced by the central bank's reserves policy when access to international capital markets is limited. The standard treatment of the transfer problem implicitly assumes spending equals absorption. Here, in contrast, a policy mix that results in spending but not absorbing the aid generates demand pressures and results in an increase in real interest rates. It can also lead to a temporary real depreciation if demand pressures are strong enough to threaten external balance. Certain features of low income countries, such as limited participation in domestic financial markets, make a real depreciation more likely by amplifying demand pressures when aid is spent but not absorbed. The results from our model can help understand the recent experience of Uganda, which saw an increase in government spending following a surge in aid yet experienced a real depreciation and an increase in real interest rates.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; exchange rate
Cover Departmental Papers
Tanzania: The Story of an African Transition
Mr. Roger Nord
,
Mr. Yuri V Sobolev
,
Mr. David G. Dunn
,
Alejandro Hajdenberg
,
Mr. Niko A Hobdari
,
Samar Maziad
, and
Stéphane Roudet
This volume documents Tanzania’s remarkable turnaround from severe economic distress in 1985, and reviews the economic policies that twenty years later contributed to a successful reversal. Tanzania still faces many policy and reform challenges, despite the many recent economic achievements the country has experienced.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; government; exchange rate; local government; enterprise; production function; trade diversion; monetary policy; private sector; foreign exchange; economic growth; Trade balance; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; Southern Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Third Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Waiver and Modification of Assessment Criteria-Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Third Review Under the Policy Support Instrument for Uganda. All end-December 2007 assessment criteria were met. Macroeconomic performance remains strong and the growth outlook remains positive. IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for waivers of nonobservance of four structural assessment criteria for end-May and end-June 2008. Nonobservance of these assessment criteria was largely owed to changes in program design in light of new information and reassessment of costs and priorities that do not compromise the integrity of the program.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; request; request for waiver; waiver; authority; implementation capacity; world fuel; financial market instability; modification of assessment criteria; Arrears; Monetary base; Current spending; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2007, Sub-Saharan African
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2007, Sub-Saharan African
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The region's prospects look strong. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa should reach 6 percent in 2007 and 6¾ percent in 2008. The economic expansion is strongest in oil exporters but cuts across all country groups. This would extend a period of very good performance. In recent years, sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing its strongest growth and lowest inflation in over 30 years.

Keywords:
REO; Dem. rep.; oil exporter; current account; development expenditure; nonfuel commodity price; terms of trade shock; expenditure program; Fiscal space; Terms of trade; Oil; Medium-term budget frameworks; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; West Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa
Mr. Edward F Buffie
,
Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell
,
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
, and
Mr. Christopher S Adam
Since the turn of the century, aid flows to Africa have increased on average and become more volatile. As a result, policymakers, particularly in post-stabilization countries where inflation has only recently been brought under control, have been increasingly preoccupied with how best to deploy the available instruments of monetary policy without yielding on hard-won inflation gains. We use a stochastic simulation model, in which private sector currency substitution effects play a central role, to examine the properties of alternative monetary and fiscal policy strategies in the face of volatile aid flows. We show that simple monetary rules, specifically an (unsterilized) exchange rate crawl and a 'reserve buffer plus float'-under which the authorities set a time-varying reserve target corresponding to the unspent portion of aid financing and allow the exchange rate to float freely once this reserve target is satisfied-have attractive properties relative to a range of alternative strategies including those involving heavy reliance on bond sterilization or a commitment to a 'pure' exchange rate float.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; central bank; fiscal policy
Cover The Macroeconomics of Scaling Up Aid
The Macroeconomics of Scaling Up Aid
Lessons from Recent Experience
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Mr. Mumtaz Hussain
,
Mr. Shaun K. Roache
,
Ms. Amber A Mahone
,
Mr. Tokhir N Mirzoev
, and
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar

Abstract

This study analyzes key issues associated with large increases in aid, including absorptive capacity, Dutch disease, and inflation. The authors develop a framework that emphasizes the different roles of monetary and fiscal policy and apply it to the recent experience of five countries: Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda. These countries have often found it difficult to coordinate monetary and fiscal policy in the face of conflicting objectives, notably to spend the aid money on domestic goods and to avoid excessive exchange rate appreciation.

Keywords:
OP; nominal exchange rate; depreciation; deficit; exchange rate appreciation; terms-of-trade shock; treasury bill sale; currency depreciation; Real exchange rates; Inflation; Treasury bills and bonds; Monetary base; Africa
Cover Les défis macroéconomiques de l’expansion de l’aide à l’Afrique
Les défis macroéconomiques de l’expansion de l’aide à l’Afrique
Repères à l’intention des praticiens
Yongzheng Yang
,
Mr. Robert Powell
, and
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta

Abstract

Au cours des dix prochaines années, les pays africains seront les principaux bénéficiaires de l'augmentation de l'aide extérieure, qui vise à les aider à atteindre les objectifs du millénaire pour le développement. Ce manuel vise à aider ces pays à évaluer les effets macroéconomiques de l'expansion de l'aide et à surmonter les défis qu'ils impliquent. Il se veut une référence pour les responsables, les économistes praticiens sur le terrain et le personnel des institutions financières internationales et des organismes donateurs qui participent à l'élaboration de stratégies à moyen terme pour les pays africains, notamment dans le contexte des documents de stratégie pour la réduction de la pauvreté. Le manuel présente cinq directives principales pour l'élaboration de scénarios d'expansion visant à aider les pays à déterminer les questions politiques importantes pour une gestion efficace de l'augmentation des flux d'aide : comment absorber autant d'aide extérieure que possible, comment augmenter la croissance à court et à moyen terme, comment promouvoir la bonne gouvernance et réduire la corruption, comment préparer une stratégie de sortie pour faire face à une diminution de l'aide, et comment réévaluer régulièrement le dosage de mesures.

Keywords:
ISI; SI; scaling-up scenario; scenario; exchange rate; country; government; revenue
Cover PER – Perspectives économiques régionales, mai 2006
PER – Perspectives économiques régionales, mai 2006
Afrique subsaharienne
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Rédigées par la branche Stratégie du Département Afrique du FMI et publiées deux fois l'an en anglais et en français, les « Perspectives économiques régionales : Afrique subsaharienne » analysent les résultats économiques et les perspectives à court terme des 44 pays couverts par le département. Thèmes évoqués dans les éditions précédentes : réactions aux chocs exogènes ; résultats en matière de croissance et politiques porteuses de croissance ; efficacité des arrangements commerciaux régionaux ; implications macroéconomiques de l'expansion de l'aide ; développement du secteur financier ; décentralisation budgétaire. Des données détaillées sur les pays, groupés selon qu'ils sont exportateurs ou importateurs de pétrole et selon leur sous-région, sont présentées dans un appendice et un appendice statistique, et une liste des publications pertinentes du département Afrique est également fournie. ISSN 0258-7440.

Keywords:
REO; FBEADD; Oil-importing country; country; Oil-exporting country; government