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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 8 of 8 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Foreign Exchange x
  • Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Brandon Buell
,
Reda Cherif
,
Carissa Chen
,
Jiawen Tang
, and
Nils Wendt
The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the critical need for detailed, timely information on its evolving economic impacts, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where data availability and lack of generalizable nowcasting methodologies limit efforts for coordinated policy responses. This paper presents a suite of high frequency and granular country-level indicator tools that can be used to nowcast GDP and track changes in economic activity for countries in SSA. We make two main contributions: (1) demonstration of the predictive power of alternative data variables such as Google search trends and mobile payments, and (2) implementation of two types of modelling methodologies, machine learning and parametric factor models, that have flexibility to incorporate mixed-frequency data variables. We present nowcast results for 2019Q4 and 2020Q1 GDP for Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Ghana, and argue that our factor model methodology can be generalized to nowcast and forecast GDP for other SSA countries with limited data availability and shorter timeframes.
Keywords:
model prediction; quantile plot; ML model; GDP YoY; data variable; YoY percent change; Factor models; Machine learning; Time series analysis; Spot exchange rates; Mobile banking; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Exchange Rate Liberalization in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries Successes, Failures, and Lessons
Mr. Nils O Maehle
,
Ms. Haimanot Teferra
, and
Mrs. Armine Khachatryan
Many sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries liberalized their economies in the 1980s and early 1990s. This paper reviews the foreign exchange regime reforms in selected SSA, and their associated macroeconomic policies and economic performance during and after these reforms were undertaken. Before liberalization, most of the reviewed countries were characterized by extensive foreign exchange rationing, sizeable black market premiums, and declining per capita real income. Today, the countries that successfully reformed look markedly different. Rationing and parallel market spreads are a distant memory, and per capita income has increased sharply.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; U.S. dollar; government; country; headline inflation; proceeds; Exchange rate regimes; reforms; growth; inflation; structural adjustment; managed float; per capita income; inflation rate; exchange rate liberalization; stabilization effort; exchange rate depreciation; U.S. dollar exchange rate; adjustable peg; auction market; overvalued exchange rate; Exchange rates; Exchange rate arrangements; Currency markets; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing Competitiveness and Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Low-Income Countries
Mr. Mark W Lewis
,
Ms. Aurelie Martin
, and
Gabriel Di Bella
Assessing a country's competitiveness routinely starts with an analysis of the real exchange rate. However, in low-income countries, empirical analysis of the real exchange rate is often subject to important limitations that seriously weaken the results. This paper summarizes the methodologies used to assess real exchange rate misalignments and discusses the range of obstacles common to low-income countries. Recognizing the importance of using a wide range of indicators for assessing competitiveness in low-income countries, the paper discusses alternative competitive measures and then proposes a template of indicators to allow for a systematic assessment of competitiveness in low-income countries. The template is then used to rank countries according to their competitiveness performance in 2006.
Keywords:
WP; cost; CPI; exchange rate; competitiveness; competitiveness assessment; Equilibrium Exchange Rates; Low-Income Countries; RER chg; RER misalignment; equilibrium RERS; RER depreciation; RER indicator; RER equilibrium; RER assessment; RER adjustment; RER appreciation; Competition; Real exchange rates; Exports; Exchange rates; Terms of trade; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Challenges of Scaling Up Aid to Africa
Yongzheng Yang
,
Mr. Robert Powell
, and
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
This paper surveys the economic literature on the scaling-up of aid to Africa. It provides a checklist of issues that need to be considered when preparing a long term macroeconomic projection for a country involving the assumption of a significant increase in aid. Such scaling-up scenarios are most likely to be developed in the context of a country's efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) with the support of the international donor community. The paper stresses that when preparing a scaling-up scenario it is critical to have a detailed understanding of the likely use of additional aid flows.
Keywords:
WP; diminishing returns; crowding in; debt service; private sector; public spending; Aid; Exchange Rate; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Governance; nominal exchange rate; production function; exchange rate appreciation; revenue ratio; monetary management; Real exchange rates; Aid flows; Exchange rates; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Local Financial Development and the Aid-Growth Relationship
Ms. Mwanza Nkusu
and
Selin Sayek
With official development assistance (ODA) set to rise as countries strive to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), aid effectiveness remains an important area of development policy. An increasing number of studies support the notion that ODA can contribute to growth in a nonlinear relationship. In this paper, we investigate a new hypothesis regarding this relationship: that deeper financial markets in aid-recipient countries facilitate the management of aid flows, thereby enhancing aid effectiveness. An empirical analysis, using a panel data set, finds robust support for the hypothesis.
Keywords:
WP; financial market; financial market depth; interaction term; Foreign aid; economic growth; poverty; financial development; depth indicator; financial market development; depth measure; Aid flows; Financial sector development; Real exchange rates; Development assistance; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financing Uganda'S Poverty Reduction Strategy: Is Aid Causing More Pain Than Gain?
Ms. Mwanza Nkusu
Uganda's market-friendly development strategy and poverty reduction agenda have attracted large financial inflows, including aid. During 2000-02, concerns about a possible aid-induced Dutch disease were heightened by widening macroeconomic imbalances and an upward trend in the real effective exchange rate (REER). This paper shows that the REER remained broadly stable during a 10-year period and nontraditional exports increased remarkably, contrary to the predictions of the Dutch disease model. Also, economic growth was strong. This good performance is attributed to sound macroeconomic policies and important structural reforms, which have allowed an increased use of available production factors.
Keywords:
WP; right; Uganda; ODA; terms of trade; REER; Foreign aid; exchange rates; economic growth; and poverty; ODA flow; terms of trade shock; Uganda shilling; savings-investment balance; ODA inflow; Real effective exchange rates; Exports; Dutch disease; Real exchange rates; Poverty reduction strategy
Cover DTS, monnaies et or
DTS, monnaies et or
Sixième exposé sur les changements intervenus dans le domaine juridique
Mr. Joseph Gold

Abstract

Cette brochure est le sixième exposé consacré aux changements intervenus, sur le plan international et national, dans la législation et dans la pratique monétaire, concernant les droits de tirage spéciaux (DTS), les monnaies et l'or. Ce document souligne le fait que la monnaie d'un pays membre détenu par le FMI dans des comptes autres que le compte des ressources générales n'est pas assujettie, selon les statuts du FMI, au principe du maintien de sa valeur en termes de DTS applicable aux monnaies détenues au compte des ressources générales. Le FMI est habilité, explicitement ou implicitement, à investir des avoirs dans des comptes auxquels ne s'applique aucune obligation de maintien de la valeur.

Keywords:
PAM; procedure; SDR; currency; exchange rate
Cover SDRs, Currencies, and Gold
SDRs, Currencies, and Gold
Sixth Survey of New Legal Developments
Mr. Joseph Gold

Abstract

This paper presents the sixth survey of developments in international and national monetary law and practice involving special drawing rights (SDRs), currencies, and gold. The paper highlights that a member’s currency held by the IMF in accounts other than the General Resources Account is not subject under the IMF’s Articles of Agreement to the principle of maintenance of value in terms of the SDR that applies to currency held in the IMF’s General Resources Account. The IMF has express or implied powers to invest holdings in accounts to which no obligation to maintain value is attached.

Keywords:
PAM; procedure; SDR; currency; exchange rate; unit of account; currency arrangement; SDR concept; gold stock; use of the SDR; Multiple currency practices; Exchange rates; Currencies; Gold; Exchange rate adjustments; Global; Europe; West Africa; Southern Africa; North America; Caribbean