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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 19 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Foreign Exchange x
  • Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System; Payment Systems x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Brandon Buell
,
Reda Cherif
,
Carissa Chen
,
Jiawen Tang
, and
Nils Wendt
The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the critical need for detailed, timely information on its evolving economic impacts, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where data availability and lack of generalizable nowcasting methodologies limit efforts for coordinated policy responses. This paper presents a suite of high frequency and granular country-level indicator tools that can be used to nowcast GDP and track changes in economic activity for countries in SSA. We make two main contributions: (1) demonstration of the predictive power of alternative data variables such as Google search trends and mobile payments, and (2) implementation of two types of modelling methodologies, machine learning and parametric factor models, that have flexibility to incorporate mixed-frequency data variables. We present nowcast results for 2019Q4 and 2020Q1 GDP for Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Ghana, and argue that our factor model methodology can be generalized to nowcast and forecast GDP for other SSA countries with limited data availability and shorter timeframes.
Keywords:
model prediction; quantile plot; ML model; GDP YoY; data variable; YoY percent change; Factor models; Machine learning; Time series analysis; Spot exchange rates; Mobile banking; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Departmental Papers
Toward a Monetary Union in the East African Community: Asymmetric Shocks, Exchange Rates, and Risk-Sharing Mechanisms
Mr. Paulo Drummond
,
Mr. Ari Aisen
,
Mr. Emre Alper
,
Ms. Ejona Fuli
, and
Mr. Sébastien Walker
This paper examines how susceptible East African Community (EAC) economies are to asymmetric shocks, assesses the value of the exchange rate as a shock absorber for these countries, and reviews adjustment mechanisms that would help ensure a successful experience under a common currency. The report draws on analysis of recent experiences and examines likely future changes in the EAC economies.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; EAC country; interest rate; demand shock; monetary union; EAC economy; Exch. rate; partner state; Exchange rates; Monetary unions; Exchange rate arrangements; Currencies; Supply shocks; West Africa; East Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover The Quest for Regional Integration in the East African Community
The Quest for Regional Integration in the East African Community
Mr. Paulo Drummond
,
Mr. S. K Wajid
, and
Mr. Oral Williams

Abstract

The countries in the East African Community (EAC) are among the fastest growing economies in sub-Saharan Africa. The EAC countries are making significant progress toward financial integration, including harmonization of supervisory arrangements and practices and the modernization of monetary policy frameworks. This book focuses on regional integration in the EAC and argues that the establishment of a time table for the eliminating the sensitive-products list and establishing a supranational legal framework for resolving trade disputes are important reforms that should foster regional integration.

Keywords:
BOOK; East African Community; monetary policy; country; market; EAC country; financial market; convergence criteria; EAC member states; market infrastructure; Monetary unions; Exchange rates; Real exchange rates; Currencies; Stock markets; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa; East Africa; Africa; EAC region; EAC banking systems; resident representative; Exchange rate flexibility
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics: A Narrative Approach
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Ms. Luisa Charry
,
Mr. Rafael A Portillo
, and
Mr. Jan Vlcek
Many central banks in low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are modernising their monetary policy frameworks. Standard statistical procedures have had limited success in identifying the channels of monetary transmission in such countries. Here we take a narrative approach, following Romer and Romer (1989), and center on a significant tightening of monetary policy that took place in 2011 in four members of the East African Community: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda. We find clear evidence of the transmission mechanism in most of the countries, and argue that deviations can be explained by differences in the policy regime in place.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; Kenya; central bank; rate; Uganda; Monetary Transmission Mechanisms; Low Income Countries; core inflation; nominal exchange rate; policy regime; headline inflation; interest rate transmission mechanism; economic structure; excess reserves; interest rate channel; exchange rate pressure; exchange rate channel; monetary policy response; Exchange rates; Inflation; Short term interest rates; Central bank policy rate; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the East African Community: An Empirical Investigation
Mr. Hamid R Davoodi
,
S. V. S. Dixit
, and
Gabor Pinter
Do changes in monetary policy affect inflation and output in the East African Community (EAC)? We find that (i) Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM) tends to be generally weak when using standard statistical inferences, but somewhat strong when using non-standard inference methods; (ii) when MTM is present, the precise transmission channels and their importance differ across countries; and (iii) reserve money and the policy rate, two frequently used instruments of monetary policy, sometimes move in directions that exert offsetting expansionary and contractionary effects on inflation—posing challenges to harmonization of monetary policies across the EAC and transition to a future East African Monetary Union. The paper offers some suggestions for strengthening the MTM in the EAC.
Keywords:
WP; price level; contractionary monetary policy; exchange rate; central bank; money multiplier; Monetary policy; reserve money; policy rate; vector autoregressions; monetary policy shock; transmission mechanism; monetary policy authority; interest rate channel; rising prices; monetary policy transmission; Monetary base; Central bank policy rate; Vector autoregression; Credit; Exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Measuring Financial Barriers Among East African Community Countries
Yi David Wang
This paper seeks to quantify existing financial barriers among East African Community (EAC) member countries based on analysis of each member country’s foreign exchange market. The primary contribution of this paper is the generation of an aggregate measure of financial barriers for the three relatively more advanced members (Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania) using forward foreign exchange and interbank interest rate data. Its empirical results, which are corroborated by other evidence such as the levels of development of the financial markets and restrictions on capital flows, suggest that Kenya is the EAC’s most financially open country, followed by Uganda, and then Tanzania. The fact that the three countries exhibit different degrees of financial openness suggests that financial integration in the EAC region has a way to go.
Keywords:
WP; EAC country; foreign exchange market; exchange rate; dollar; Forward rates; foreign exchange; financial barrier; financial integration; EAC member; EAC currency; spot market; Kenya shilling; Currency markets; Interest rate parity; Currencies; Interbank rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa
Mr. Edward F Buffie
,
Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell
,
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
, and
Mr. Christopher S Adam
Since the turn of the century, aid flows to Africa have increased on average and become more volatile. As a result, policymakers, particularly in post-stabilization countries where inflation has only recently been brought under control, have been increasingly preoccupied with how best to deploy the available instruments of monetary policy without yielding on hard-won inflation gains. We use a stochastic simulation model, in which private sector currency substitution effects play a central role, to examine the properties of alternative monetary and fiscal policy strategies in the face of volatile aid flows. We show that simple monetary rules, specifically an (unsterilized) exchange rate crawl and a 'reserve buffer plus float'-under which the authorities set a time-varying reserve target corresponding to the unspent portion of aid financing and allow the exchange rate to float freely once this reserve target is satisfied-have attractive properties relative to a range of alternative strategies including those involving heavy reliance on bond sterilization or a commitment to a 'pure' exchange rate float.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; central bank; fiscal policy
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, March 2002
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Articles reviewing IMF research on dollarization and on the relationship between macroeconomic policies and income distribution; country/area study: The Euro Area; summaries of Second Annual IMF Research Conference and Investor Relations Seminar; list of external publications of IMF staff; IMF working papers; visiting scholars at the IMF.
Keywords:
IRB; monetary policy; exchange rate; OECD survey; crisis; reference value; IMF stabilization loan; seminar participant; balance of payments statistics newsletter; Income inequality; Income distribution; Dollarization; External sector statistics; Balance of payments statistics; Africa; Europe; Global; Central and Eastern Europe; Pacific Islands; Southern Africa
Cover Financial Sector Development in Sub-Saharan African Countries
Financial Sector Development in Sub-Saharan African Countries
Jean-Pierre Briffaut
,
Mr. George Iden
,
Mr. Peter C. Hayward
,
Mr. Tonny Lybek
,
Mr. Hassanali Mehran
,
Mr. Piero Ugolini
, and
Mr. Stephen M Swaray

Abstract

This study takes stock of progress made so far in the financial sectors of sub-saharan African countries. It recommends further reforms and specific measures in the areas of supervision, development of monetary operations and financial markets, external sector liberalization, central bank autonomy and accountability, payments system, and central bank accounting and auditing.

Keywords:
OP; central bank; government; market; payment; monetary policy; bank expansion; government bank; exchange policy; bank intermediation; resource utilization; a number of bank; government ownership; Commercial banks; Central bank legislation; Central bank autonomy; Payment systems; Financial sector; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; West Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Purchasing Power Parities in Five East African Countries: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda
Mr. Noureddine Krichene
In a case study of Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda, this paper finds that bilateral real exchange rates revert to a long-term equilibrium in line with purchasing power parities, implying that these countries constitute an integrated trading zone, their markets are interdependent and arbitrage works efficiently, and intraregional competitiveness is preserved. These findings are partly explained by the flexibility of nominal exchange rates and prices and the absence of long-term productivity differences among these countries. To strengthen market integration, foster private sector development, and enhance growth prospects, the paper emphasizes the importance of increased trade, competitive labor markets, flexible exchange rates, and convergence of macroeconomic and structural policies.
Keywords:
WP; nominal exchange rate; U.S. dollar; inflation rate; PPP theory; Purchasing power parity; competitiveness; cointegration analysis; vis-à-vis Tanzania; equilibrium path; currency depreciation; adjustment coefficient; Uganda shilling; nominal exchange rate determination; Exchange rates; Real exchange rates; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Currencies; Africa