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Africa > Uganda

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Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, March 2011
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The Q&A in this issue features seven questions on the role of precautionary savings in open economies (by Damiano Sandri); the research summaries are "The Macroeconomics of Aid (by Andrew Berg, Rafael Portillo, and Luis-Felipe Zanna) and "The Building Blocks to Measure Inflation" (by Mick Silver). The issue also lists the contents of the March 2011 issue of the IMF Economic Review, Volume 59 Number 1; visiting scholars at the IMF during January?March 2011; and recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes.
Keywords:
IRB; evidence from the Crisis; economic policy issue; The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis; shock transmission; cross-country incidence; global recession; Precautionary savings; Real exchange rates; Price indexes; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Rwanda: 2010 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Policy Support Instrument-Staff Report; Public Information Notice and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Rwanda.
International Monetary Fund
Satisfactory implementation of the economic program supported by the Policy Support Instrument has helped Rwanda during the global economic downturn. The program focuses on maintaining a sustainable fiscal position; strengthening monetary and exchange rate policies; and supporting growth with structural reforms to diversify the export base and improve the business environment. The authorities are committed to assess the inflation to safeguard the gains made in macroeconomic stability that currently underpin the economic recovery. Executive Directors emphasized the need to maintain macroeconomic stability to achieve sustainable growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; modification of assessment criteria; modification; authority; aid dependency; fiscal policy; inflation outlook; Rwandan authorities; development program; Credit; Monetary base; Exchange rates; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomics of Medium-Term Aid Scaling-Up Scenarios
Mr. Rafael A Portillo
,
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Jan Gottschalk
, and
Luis-Felipe Zanna
We develop a model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of a scaling-up of aid and assess the implications of different policy responses. The model features key structural characteristics of low-income countries, including varying degrees of public investment efficiency and a learning-by-doing (LBD) externality that captures Dutch disease effects. On the policy front, it distinguishes between spending the aid, which is controlled by the fiscal authority, and absorbing the aid - financing a higher current account deficit - which is influenced by the central bank's reserve accumulation policies. We calibrate the model to Uganda and run several experiments. We find that a policy mix that results in full spending and absorption of aid can generate temporary demand and real exchange rate appreciation pressures, but also have a positive effect on real GDP in the medium term, through higher public capital. Full spending with partial absorption, on the other hand, may stem appreciation pressures but can also induce adverse medium-term real GDP effects, through private sector crowding out. When aid is very inefficiently invested and there are strong LBD externalities, aid can be harmful, and partial absorption policies may be justified. But in this case, a welfare improving solution is to defer spending or - even better if possible - raise its efficiency.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; exchange rate; government spending
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Short-Run Macroeconomics of Aid Inflows: Understanding the Interaction of Fiscal and Reserve Policy
Luis-Felipe Zanna
,
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Mr. Tokhir N Mirzoev
, and
Mr. Rafael A Portillo
We develop a tractable open-economy new-Keynesian model with two sectors to analyze the short-term effects of aid-financed fiscal expansions. We distinguish between spending the aid, which is under the control of the fiscal authorities, and absorbing the aid-using the aid to finance a higher current account deficit-which is influenced by the central bank's reserves policy when access to international capital markets is limited. The standard treatment of the transfer problem implicitly assumes spending equals absorption. Here, in contrast, a policy mix that results in spending but not absorbing the aid generates demand pressures and results in an increase in real interest rates. It can also lead to a temporary real depreciation if demand pressures are strong enough to threaten external balance. Certain features of low income countries, such as limited participation in domestic financial markets, make a real depreciation more likely by amplifying demand pressures when aid is spent but not absorbed. The results from our model can help understand the recent experience of Uganda, which saw an increase in government spending following a surge in aid yet experienced a real depreciation and an increase in real interest rates.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; exchange rate
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Sixth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for an Extension of the Policy Support Instrument-Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Sixth Review for Uganda Under the Policy Support Instrument. Structural rigidities continue to pose challenges to macroeconomic management in Uganda. Persistent weaknesses in project implementation coupled with rigidities in domestic financial markets limited the scope for fiscal and monetary stimulus in 2008/09. Progress with structural reforms has been uneven and may not have kept pace with the needs raised by the public investment drive. Macroeconomic policies will continue to aim at overcoming infrastructure bottlenecks while mitigating the impact of external shocks on domestic activity.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; liquidity management framework; headline inflation; management; market; Uganda's PSI; IMF's framework; program goal; X. exchange rate arrangement; fiscal year; NDP objective; monetary management; upstream JSAN; terms of trade; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Exchange rates; Infrastructure; Public investment spending; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Modification of Assessment Criteria: Staff Report; and Press Release
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Fifth Review under the policy support instrument for Uganda. Strong fundamentals and prudent economic policies of the past give Uganda scope to implement measured countercyclical policies without undermining macroeconomic stability. Monetary policy has been gradually eased in the face of the dry-up in private external financing. In spite of the slowdown-induced shortfall in tax revenue, the fiscal authorities are committed to accelerate and improve execution of investment spending to provide a positive impulse to growth and remove critical bottlenecks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; PSI-supported program; IMF's framework; growth; financial system; Uganda's PSI; core inflation; financial crisis; FAD mission; Budget planning and preparation; International reserves; Credit; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Tanzania: The Story of an African Transition
Mr. Roger Nord
,
Mr. Yuri V Sobolev
,
Mr. David G. Dunn
,
Alejandro Hajdenberg
,
Mr. Niko A Hobdari
,
Samar Maziad
, and
Stéphane Roudet
This volume documents Tanzania’s remarkable turnaround from severe economic distress in 1985, and reviews the economic policies that twenty years later contributed to a successful reversal. Tanzania still faces many policy and reform challenges, despite the many recent economic achievements the country has experienced.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; government; exchange rate; local government; enterprise; production function; trade diversion; monetary policy; private sector; foreign exchange; economic growth; Trade balance; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; Southern Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Third Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Waiver and Modification of Assessment Criteria-Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Third Review Under the Policy Support Instrument for Uganda. All end-December 2007 assessment criteria were met. Macroeconomic performance remains strong and the growth outlook remains positive. IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for waivers of nonobservance of four structural assessment criteria for end-May and end-June 2008. Nonobservance of these assessment criteria was largely owed to changes in program design in light of new information and reassessment of costs and priorities that do not compromise the integrity of the program.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; request; request for waiver; waiver; authority; implementation capacity; world fuel; financial market instability; modification of assessment criteria; Arrears; Monetary base; Current spending; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2007, Sub-Saharan African
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2007, Sub-Saharan African
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The region's prospects look strong. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa should reach 6 percent in 2007 and 6¾ percent in 2008. The economic expansion is strongest in oil exporters but cuts across all country groups. This would extend a period of very good performance. In recent years, sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing its strongest growth and lowest inflation in over 30 years.

Keywords:
REO; Dem. rep.; oil exporter; current account; development expenditure; nonfuel commodity price; terms of trade shock; expenditure program; Fiscal space; Terms of trade; Oil; Medium-term budget frameworks; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; West Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa
Mr. Edward F Buffie
,
Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell
,
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
, and
Mr. Christopher S Adam
Since the turn of the century, aid flows to Africa have increased on average and become more volatile. As a result, policymakers, particularly in post-stabilization countries where inflation has only recently been brought under control, have been increasingly preoccupied with how best to deploy the available instruments of monetary policy without yielding on hard-won inflation gains. We use a stochastic simulation model, in which private sector currency substitution effects play a central role, to examine the properties of alternative monetary and fiscal policy strategies in the face of volatile aid flows. We show that simple monetary rules, specifically an (unsterilized) exchange rate crawl and a 'reserve buffer plus float'-under which the authorities set a time-varying reserve target corresponding to the unspent portion of aid financing and allow the exchange rate to float freely once this reserve target is satisfied-have attractive properties relative to a range of alternative strategies including those involving heavy reliance on bond sterilization or a commitment to a 'pure' exchange rate float.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; central bank; fiscal policy