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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 40 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines tax policy and administrative changes in Eastern African Community (EAC) countries with a view to benchmark Kenya’s experience and draw lessons for future tax reforms. Using granular data from a new IMF database on tax measures announced during 1988–2022, it concludes that EAC policymakers frequently changed their tax system and administrations by announcing tax packages that typically consisted of measures to narrow the tax base and strengthen tax administrative practices. Kenya appeared to be one of the EAC countries that most frequently announced and introduced such changes, which might have played a significant role in explaining the reduction in the tax-to-gross domestic product ratio experienced by the country since 2014. The conclusions of this note are subject to caveats, as the frequency of tax measures is not an indicator of the actual revenue impact of such measures. Looking at the frequency of changes, however, can help identify reform episodes providing a sense of their duration and comprehensiveness.
Keywords:
public sector balance sheet methodology; exchange rate shock; public sector balance sheet vulnerability; public sector balance sheet approach; HM Treasury; EAC policymaker; Tax-to-GDP ratio; Financial statements; Exchange rates; Public sector; Fiscal risks; Global; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Waiver of an Assessment Criterion and Modification of Assessment Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Uganda’s Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and Request for Waiver of an Assessment Criterion and Modification of Assessment Criteria. The economy of Uganda has fared well in a difficult environment. Program performance under the PSI was generally positive. All end-June and continuous quantitative assessment criteria were observed, with one exception, and so were most indicative targets. Inflation remained within the bands of the consultation clause. An unprecedented increase in tax revenue was a key achievement. However, further progress on structural reforms is needed. The authorities are rightly adjusting the policy mix. The IMF staff recommends completing the fifth review under the PSI.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; policy credibility; GDP; core inflation; policy efficacy; supply and use tables; East AFRITAC; compilation methodology; shilling depreciation; Depreciation; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The East African Community: Prospects for Sustained Growth
Ms. Catherine McAuliffe
,
Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena
, and
Mr. Masafumi Yabara
The East African Community (EAC) has been among the fastest growing regions in sub-Saharan Africa in the past decade or so. Nonetheless, the recent growth path will not be enough to achieve middle-income status and substantial poverty reduction by the end of the decade—the ambition of most countries in the region. This paper builds on methodologies established in the growth literature to identify a group of countries that achieved growth accelerations and sustained growth to use as benchmarks to evaluate the prospects, and potential constraints, for EAC countries to translate their recent growth upturn into sustained high growth. We find that EAC countries compare favorably to the group of sustained growth countries—macroeconomic and government stability, favorable business climate, and strong institutions—but important differences remain. EAC countries have a smaller share of exports, lower degree of financial deepening, lower levels of domestic savings, higher reliance on donor aid, and limited physical infrastructure and human capital. Policy choices to address some of these shortcomings could make a difference in whether the EAC follows the path of sustained growth or follows other countries where growth upturns later fizzled out. 
Keywords:
WP; EAC country; EAC member; growth acceleration; EAC economy; EAC growth; Accelerated growth; sustained growth; benchmarking; East African Community; sub-Saharan Africa; EAC integration; exchange rate; private sector; common market; Exports; Financial sector; Government debt management; Productivity; Real exchange rates; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, March 2011
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The Q&A in this issue features seven questions on the role of precautionary savings in open economies (by Damiano Sandri); the research summaries are "The Macroeconomics of Aid (by Andrew Berg, Rafael Portillo, and Luis-Felipe Zanna) and "The Building Blocks to Measure Inflation" (by Mick Silver). The issue also lists the contents of the March 2011 issue of the IMF Economic Review, Volume 59 Number 1; visiting scholars at the IMF during January?March 2011; and recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes.
Keywords:
IRB; evidence from the Crisis; economic policy issue; The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis; shock transmission; cross-country incidence; global recession; Precautionary savings; Real exchange rates; Price indexes; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Rwanda: 2010 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Policy Support Instrument-Staff Report; Public Information Notice and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Rwanda.
International Monetary Fund
Satisfactory implementation of the economic program supported by the Policy Support Instrument has helped Rwanda during the global economic downturn. The program focuses on maintaining a sustainable fiscal position; strengthening monetary and exchange rate policies; and supporting growth with structural reforms to diversify the export base and improve the business environment. The authorities are committed to assess the inflation to safeguard the gains made in macroeconomic stability that currently underpin the economic recovery. Executive Directors emphasized the need to maintain macroeconomic stability to achieve sustainable growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; modification of assessment criteria; modification; authority; aid dependency; fiscal policy; inflation outlook; Rwandan authorities; development program; Credit; Monetary base; Exchange rates; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomics of Medium-Term Aid Scaling-Up Scenarios
Mr. Rafael A Portillo
,
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Jan Gottschalk
, and
Luis-Felipe Zanna
We develop a model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of a scaling-up of aid and assess the implications of different policy responses. The model features key structural characteristics of low-income countries, including varying degrees of public investment efficiency and a learning-by-doing (LBD) externality that captures Dutch disease effects. On the policy front, it distinguishes between spending the aid, which is controlled by the fiscal authority, and absorbing the aid - financing a higher current account deficit - which is influenced by the central bank's reserve accumulation policies. We calibrate the model to Uganda and run several experiments. We find that a policy mix that results in full spending and absorption of aid can generate temporary demand and real exchange rate appreciation pressures, but also have a positive effect on real GDP in the medium term, through higher public capital. Full spending with partial absorption, on the other hand, may stem appreciation pressures but can also induce adverse medium-term real GDP effects, through private sector crowding out. When aid is very inefficiently invested and there are strong LBD externalities, aid can be harmful, and partial absorption policies may be justified. But in this case, a welfare improving solution is to defer spending or - even better if possible - raise its efficiency.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; exchange rate; government spending
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Short-Run Macroeconomics of Aid Inflows: Understanding the Interaction of Fiscal and Reserve Policy
Luis-Felipe Zanna
,
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Mr. Tokhir N Mirzoev
, and
Mr. Rafael A Portillo
We develop a tractable open-economy new-Keynesian model with two sectors to analyze the short-term effects of aid-financed fiscal expansions. We distinguish between spending the aid, which is under the control of the fiscal authorities, and absorbing the aid-using the aid to finance a higher current account deficit-which is influenced by the central bank's reserves policy when access to international capital markets is limited. The standard treatment of the transfer problem implicitly assumes spending equals absorption. Here, in contrast, a policy mix that results in spending but not absorbing the aid generates demand pressures and results in an increase in real interest rates. It can also lead to a temporary real depreciation if demand pressures are strong enough to threaten external balance. Certain features of low income countries, such as limited participation in domestic financial markets, make a real depreciation more likely by amplifying demand pressures when aid is spent but not absorbed. The results from our model can help understand the recent experience of Uganda, which saw an increase in government spending following a surge in aid yet experienced a real depreciation and an increase in real interest rates.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; exchange rate
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Sixth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for an Extension of the Policy Support Instrument-Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Sixth Review for Uganda Under the Policy Support Instrument. Structural rigidities continue to pose challenges to macroeconomic management in Uganda. Persistent weaknesses in project implementation coupled with rigidities in domestic financial markets limited the scope for fiscal and monetary stimulus in 2008/09. Progress with structural reforms has been uneven and may not have kept pace with the needs raised by the public investment drive. Macroeconomic policies will continue to aim at overcoming infrastructure bottlenecks while mitigating the impact of external shocks on domestic activity.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; liquidity management framework; headline inflation; management; market; Uganda's PSI; IMF's framework; program goal; X. exchange rate arrangement; fiscal year; NDP objective; monetary management; upstream JSAN; terms of trade; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Exchange rates; Infrastructure; Public investment spending; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Modification of Assessment Criteria: Staff Report; and Press Release
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Fifth Review under the policy support instrument for Uganda. Strong fundamentals and prudent economic policies of the past give Uganda scope to implement measured countercyclical policies without undermining macroeconomic stability. Monetary policy has been gradually eased in the face of the dry-up in private external financing. In spite of the slowdown-induced shortfall in tax revenue, the fiscal authorities are committed to accelerate and improve execution of investment spending to provide a positive impulse to growth and remove critical bottlenecks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; PSI-supported program; IMF's framework; growth; financial system; Uganda's PSI; core inflation; financial crisis; FAD mission; Budget planning and preparation; International reserves; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
Like most Sub-Saharan African countries, Kenya’s economic growth appears to have been primarily driven by factor accumulation. The Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for Kenya examines economic developments and policies. During the last two decades, Kenya has been plagued by pervasive problems of internal conflicts, constitutional crises, and corruption scandals. The governance agenda focuses on several reforms, including upgrading the public budget and financial management systems, strengthening the anticorruption institutions, and improving the judicial framework.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kenya; pay; inflation; TFP growth; wage bill; Reduced-Form inflation equation; development objective; governance agenda; growth performance; bill-to-domestic revenue; Tariffs; Total factor productivity; Wages; Real exchange rates; Imports; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East; Africa; East Asia; Central and Eastern Europe