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Africa > Uganda

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Request for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper analyzes Uganda’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. The Ugandan economy is severely affected by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In order to contain the impact of the pandemic, the authorities have increased health spending, strengthened social protection to the most vulnerable, and enhanced their support to the private sector. The Bank of Uganda has appropriately reduced interest rates and provided liquidity to safeguard financial stability, while maintaining exchange rate flexibility. The weakening economic conditions emanating from the Covid-19 pandemic have put significant pressures on revenue collection, expenditure, reserves and the exchange rate, creating urgent large external and fiscal financing needs. The IMF continues to monitor Uganda’s situation closely and stands ready to provide policy advice and further support as needed. The authorities have also committed to put in place targeted transparency and accountability measures to ensure the appropriate use of emergency financing. The IMF’s emergency financial support under the RCF, along with the additional donor financing it is expected to help catalyze, will help address Uganda’s urgent balance of payments and budget support needs.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IMF lending tracker; financing; emergency expenditure; emergency financing request; health preparedness plan; IMF's emergency financial support; Credit; Imports; Budget planning and preparation; Global; COVID-19
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: 2017 Article IV Consultation and Eighth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uganda’s recent economic performance has been sound, notwithstanding a slowdown in growth. Real GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 3.9 percent in FY2016/17, reflecting domestic factors and external headwinds, including the drought in the Horn of Africa. The banking sector remains well-capitalized overall. However, elevated nonperforming loans have constrained bank lending which contributed to the growth slowdown. Food price inflation increased owing to the drought, but core inflation was 5.1 percent in May 2017, in line with the Bank of Uganda’s target. The outlook is broadly favorable. With steadfast policy implementation and assuming improved weather conditions, growth could accelerate to 5 percent in FY2017/18.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; core inflation; rate; report; food price inflation; payment arrears; inflation outlook; staff appraisal; Bank of Uganda's Monetary Policy Committee; Arrears; Credit; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Seventh Review Under the Policy Support Instrument-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The economy has performed reasonably well in a complex environment. Growth slowed marginally in FY15/16, reflecting muted sentiment in an election year and adverse global and regional developments. Growth should nudge up in FY16/17 to 5 percent, low compared to past performance and regional peers. Credit to the private sector has stalled, and non-performing loans (NPLs) have increased, also reflecting domestic government arrears. The current account deficit is fully financed. The Shilling has stabilized after a sharp depreciation in 2015, and international reserve coverage remains adequate.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; government; scaling-up of infrastructure investment; deficit target; fell short; supply and use tables; core inflation; East AFRITAC mission; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Waiver of an Assessment Criterion and Modification of Assessment Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Uganda’s Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and Request for Waiver of an Assessment Criterion and Modification of Assessment Criteria. The economy of Uganda has fared well in a difficult environment. Program performance under the PSI was generally positive. All end-June and continuous quantitative assessment criteria were observed, with one exception, and so were most indicative targets. Inflation remained within the bands of the consultation clause. An unprecedented increase in tax revenue was a key achievement. However, further progress on structural reforms is needed. The authorities are rightly adjusting the policy mix. The IMF staff recommends completing the fifth review under the PSI.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; policy credibility; GDP; core inflation; policy efficacy; supply and use tables; East AFRITAC; compilation methodology; shilling depreciation; Depreciation; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uganda’s recent economic performance has been favorable. Real GDP growth is projected at 5.24 percent for FY2014/15 supported by a fiscal stimulus and a recovery in private consumption. Annual core inflation increased to 4.75 percent in May, from very depressed levels, mainly fueled by the shilling depreciation pass-through. The current account deficit is set to widen to about 9 percent of GDP reflecting increasing capital goods imports, but international reserves remain adequate. The outlook is promising. Growth is estimated at 5.75 percent in FY2015/16 and an average 6.25 percent over the medium-term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; core inflation; current account; government; real GDP; medium term inflation target; inflation targeting framework; East AFRITAC; inflation consultation clause; authorities' monetary policy; Inflation; Infrastructure; Global; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover The Quest for Regional Integration in the East African Community
The Quest for Regional Integration in the East African Community
Mr. Paulo Drummond
,
Mr. S. K Wajid
, and
Mr. Oral Williams

Abstract

The countries in the East African Community (EAC) are among the fastest growing economies in sub-Saharan Africa. The EAC countries are making significant progress toward financial integration, including harmonization of supervisory arrangements and practices and the modernization of monetary policy frameworks. This book focuses on regional integration in the EAC and argues that the establishment of a time table for the eliminating the sensitive-products list and establishing a supranational legal framework for resolving trade disputes are important reforms that should foster regional integration.

Keywords:
BOOK; East African Community; monetary policy; country; market; EAC country; financial market; convergence criteria; EAC member states; market infrastructure; Monetary unions; Exchange rates; Real exchange rates; Currencies; Stock markets; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa; East Africa; Africa; EAC region; EAC banking systems; resident representative; Exchange rate flexibility
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Third Review Under the Policy Support Instrument, Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of an Assessment Criterion, and Request for Modification of Assessment Criteria: Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund
This paper presents key findings of the Third Review for Uganda under the policy support instrument. Monetary policy has been tightened significantly to reduce core inflation, supported by a contractionary fiscal stance. All but one of the seven quantitative assessment criteria were met at end-June; most structural benchmarks were met, although several with delay. Tighter monetary and fiscal policies in the near term aim to reduce inflation rapidly, while medium-term policies strive to create fiscal space to support stepped-up public infrastructure investment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; disinflation effort; monetary policy; authority; fiscal policy; EAC partner state; IMF's framework; government finances; macroeconomic fundamentals; safeguards policy; X. exchange rate arrangement; credit growth; Inflation; Budget planning and preparation; Arrears; Commercial banks; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Second Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Waiver of Assessment Criteria: Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda.
International Monetary Fund
Economic growth has recovered, but higher food and fuel prices have sparked a sharp rise in inflation. Monetary policy has been tightened to contain core inflation and effects of the food and fuel price shocks. The government has allowed for scaling up of infrastructure investment spending. The programmed adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies will help put Uganda on a more sustainable medium-term trajectory. Eliminating tax exemptions and incentives will address the revenue gap. The planned oil revenue management framework is encouraging.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; fiscal policy; debt; deficit; investment project selection; exchange rate; medium term trade balance deficit; debt-burden indicator; macroeconomic fundamentals; Budget planning and preparation; Oil; Inflation; Global; North Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Should African Monetary Unions Be Expanded? An Empirical Investigation of the Scope for Monetary Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa
Mr. Xavier Debrun
,
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
, and
Mr. Paul R Masson
This paper develops a full-fledged cost-benefit analysis of monetary integration, and applies it to the currency unions actively pursued in Africa. The benefits of monetary union come from a more credible monetary policy, while the costs derive from real shock asymmetries and fiscal disparities. The model is calibrated using African data. Simulations indicate that the proposed EAC, ECOWAS, and SADC monetary unions bring about net benefits to some potential members, but modest net gains and sometimes net losses for others. Strengthening domestic macroeconomic frameworks is shown to provide some of the same improvements as monetary integration, reducing the latter’s relative attractiveness.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; monetary policy; CFA franc
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya, Uganda, and United Republic of Tanzania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for Kenya, Uganda, and United Republic of Tanzania highlights their private sector credit markets, identifies their main obstacles in promoting credit to the private sector, and suggests a reform strategy. If the East African Community (EAC) countries decide to pursue a coordinated approach to investment incentives, one possible solution would be to agree on a Code of Conduct for Investment Incentives and Company Income Taxation. A transparent tax system with a broad base would reduce the demand by investors for tax holidays.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; investment incentive; investment; EAC country; EAC member; tax incentive; member country; private sector credit; Investment incentives; Tariffs; Tax incentives; Credit; Customs unions; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; East Asia; Central Asia; South Asia