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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 13 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable
Omer Faruk Akbal
,
Mr. Seung M Choi
,
Mr. Futoshi Narita
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.
Keywords:
Developing economies; fragile and conflict-affected states; GDP; low-income countries; nowcasting; sub-Saharan Africa; GDP statistic; panel Nowcasting; data availability; growth data; annex II; data availablity; Commodity prices; Purchasing power parity; Data collection; Export fluctuations; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Search Externalities in Firm-to-Firm Trade
I develop a model of firm-to-firm search and matching to show that the impact of falling trade costs on firm sourcing decisions and consumer welfare depends on the relative size of search externalities in domestic and international markets. These externalities can be positive if firms share information about potential matches, or negative if the market is congested. Using unique firm-to-firm transaction-level data from Uganda, I document empirical evidence consistent with positive externalities in international markets and negative externalities in domestic markets. I then build a dynamic quantitative version of the model and show that, in Uganda, a 25% reduction in trade costs led to a 3.7% increase in consumer welfare, 12% of which was due to search externalities.
Keywords:
Firm-to-Firm Trade; VAT Data; Search-and-Matching; Importing; transport cost reduction; buyer-supplier search; search externality; welfare gains from trade; consumer welfare; Imports; Labor market frictions; Search models; Value-added tax; East Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of South Sudan: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sector Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Mission has been undertaken to support the Bank of South Sudan (BSS) in improving external sector statistics (ESS). The recommendations made during the 2018 mission for the recording of oil exports and transactions with Sudan under the Transitional Financial Agreement were implemented by the BSS. The mission worked toward enhancing the inter-agency cooperation by meeting with selected public sector bodies, providing them with an overview of the balance of payments and the data that the BSS will request from them. Before the end of the mission, requested data from one of the entities, the Civil Aviation Authority was provided. A work program was developed to conduct a visitor expenditure survey and a preliminary International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity template was submitted to IMF’s Statistics Department for review. In order to support progress in the various work areas, the mission recommended a detailed one-year action plan, with the several priority recommendations carrying weight to make headway in improving ESS reliability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; center; bill; import invoice; import entry; BSS compiler; BSS staff; balance of payments compiler; goods imports; Imports; External sector statistics; Interest payments; Government debt management; Africa; Fiscal accounting and reporting
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Seventh Review Under the Policy Support Instrument-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The economy has performed reasonably well in a complex environment. Growth slowed marginally in FY15/16, reflecting muted sentiment in an election year and adverse global and regional developments. Growth should nudge up in FY16/17 to 5 percent, low compared to past performance and regional peers. Credit to the private sector has stalled, and non-performing loans (NPLs) have increased, also reflecting domestic government arrears. The current account deficit is fully financed. The Shilling has stabilized after a sharp depreciation in 2015, and international reserve coverage remains adequate.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; government; scaling-up of infrastructure investment; deficit target; fell short; supply and use tables; core inflation; East AFRITAC mission; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Toward a Monetary Union in the East African Community: Asymmetric Shocks, Exchange Rates, and Risk-Sharing Mechanisms
Mr. Paulo Drummond
,
Mr. Ari Aisen
,
Mr. Emre Alper
,
Ms. Ejona Fuli
, and
Mr. Sébastien Walker
This paper examines how susceptible East African Community (EAC) economies are to asymmetric shocks, assesses the value of the exchange rate as a shock absorber for these countries, and reviews adjustment mechanisms that would help ensure a successful experience under a common currency. The report draws on analysis of recent experiences and examines likely future changes in the EAC economies.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; EAC country; interest rate; demand shock; monetary union; EAC economy; Exch. rate; partner state; Exchange rates; Monetary unions; Exchange rate arrangements; Currencies; Supply shocks; West Africa; East Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
When and Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation? The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease and Growth
International Monetary Fund
We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchange rate on economic growth, the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. However, there is no evidence in the literature that Dutch disease reduces overall economic growth. Policy responses should aim at adequately managing the boom and the risks associated with it.
Keywords:
WP; natural resource; DD effect; exchange rate appreciation; open economy; DD shock; real exchange rate; Dutch disease; growth; exchange rate overvaluation; exchange rate volatility; learning by doing; exchange rate intervention; DD phenomenon; undervalued exchange rate; Dutch disease effects; overvalued exchange rate; DD model; Real exchange rates; Natural resources; Exchange rates; Asia and Pacific; Caribbean; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: 2008 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument: Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Public Information Notice and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund
The staff report for Uganda’s combined 2008 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument is presented. Building on a foundation of two decades of sound policies, Uganda achieved an impressive economic performance, with high growth, low inflation, and steady poverty reduction. The deteriorating economic environment could expose weaknesses in banks’ risk management practices, gaps in home-host supervisory arrangements, operational risks as financial innovation outpaces banks’ systems and controls, and increasing risk appetite owing to intensifying competition from the surge of new banks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; pose downside risk; Uganda; debt; monetary policy; Uganda's economy; fiscal policy tool; IMF's framework; inflation trend; Exchange rates; Monetary statistics; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: First Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Modifications to Assessment Criteria: Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund
The staff report for the First Review under the Policy Support Instrument and Modifications to Assessment Criteria discusses Uganda’s medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF). The MTEF aims at higher public savings based on spending restraint and a rising domestic revenue ratio. The Bank of Uganda (BOU) will rely on a combination of foreign exchange sales and open market operations to sterilize liquidity. Better and more extensive transport networks and expansion of the pool of long-term savings are also critical for sustainable economic growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; debt management strategy; PSI-supported program; assistance; strategy; Executive Board discussion; IMF's framework; inflation objective; Balance of payments statistics; Monetary statistics; Government finance statistics; Financial statistics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financing Uganda'S Poverty Reduction Strategy: Is Aid Causing More Pain Than Gain?
Ms. Mwanza Nkusu
Uganda's market-friendly development strategy and poverty reduction agenda have attracted large financial inflows, including aid. During 2000-02, concerns about a possible aid-induced Dutch disease were heightened by widening macroeconomic imbalances and an upward trend in the real effective exchange rate (REER). This paper shows that the REER remained broadly stable during a 10-year period and nontraditional exports increased remarkably, contrary to the predictions of the Dutch disease model. Also, economic growth was strong. This good performance is attributed to sound macroeconomic policies and important structural reforms, which have allowed an increased use of available production factors.
Keywords:
WP; right; Uganda; ODA; terms of trade; REER; Foreign aid; exchange rates; economic growth; and poverty; ODA flow; terms of trade shock; Uganda shilling; savings-investment balance; ODA inflow; Real effective exchange rates; Exports; Dutch disease; Real exchange rates; Poverty reduction strategy
Cover External Debt Statistics
External Debt Statistics
Guide for Compilers and Users
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This Guide provides clear, up-to-date guidance on the concepts, definitions, and classifications of the gross external debt of the public and private sectors, and on the sources, compilation techniques, and analytical uses of these data. The Guide supersedes the previous international guidance on external debt statistics available in External Debt: Definition, Statistical Coverage, and Methodology (known as the Gray Book), 1988. The Guides conceptual framework derives from the System of National Accounts 1993 and the fifth edition of the IMFs Balance of Payments Manual(1993). Preparation of the Guide was undertaken by an Inter-Agency Task Force on Finance Statistics, chaired by the IMF and involving representatives from the BIS, the Commonwealth Secretariat, the European Central Bank, Eurostat, the OECD, the Paris Club Secretariat, UNCTAD, and the World Bank.

Keywords:
M&G; debt; debt liability; short-term debt; liability; interest cost; security transaction; security taker; debt position; Securities; Financial derivatives; Loans; Currencies; Global; West Africa; Africa; Southern Africa; East Africa; unit of account; External sector statistics