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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 21 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Brandon Buell
,
Reda Cherif
,
Carissa Chen
,
Jiawen Tang
, and
Nils Wendt
The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the critical need for detailed, timely information on its evolving economic impacts, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where data availability and lack of generalizable nowcasting methodologies limit efforts for coordinated policy responses. This paper presents a suite of high frequency and granular country-level indicator tools that can be used to nowcast GDP and track changes in economic activity for countries in SSA. We make two main contributions: (1) demonstration of the predictive power of alternative data variables such as Google search trends and mobile payments, and (2) implementation of two types of modelling methodologies, machine learning and parametric factor models, that have flexibility to incorporate mixed-frequency data variables. We present nowcast results for 2019Q4 and 2020Q1 GDP for Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Ghana, and argue that our factor model methodology can be generalized to nowcast and forecast GDP for other SSA countries with limited data availability and shorter timeframes.
Keywords:
model prediction; quantile plot; ML model; GDP YoY; data variable; YoY percent change; Factor models; Machine learning; Time series analysis; Spot exchange rates; Mobile banking; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Search Externalities in Firm-to-Firm Trade
I develop a model of firm-to-firm search and matching to show that the impact of falling trade costs on firm sourcing decisions and consumer welfare depends on the relative size of search externalities in domestic and international markets. These externalities can be positive if firms share information about potential matches, or negative if the market is congested. Using unique firm-to-firm transaction-level data from Uganda, I document empirical evidence consistent with positive externalities in international markets and negative externalities in domestic markets. I then build a dynamic quantitative version of the model and show that, in Uganda, a 25% reduction in trade costs led to a 3.7% increase in consumer welfare, 12% of which was due to search externalities.
Keywords:
Firm-to-Firm Trade; VAT Data; Search-and-Matching; Importing; transport cost reduction; buyer-supplier search; search externality; welfare gains from trade; consumer welfare; Imports; Labor market frictions; Search models; Value-added tax; East Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of South Sudan: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sector Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Mission has been undertaken to support the Bank of South Sudan (BSS) in improving external sector statistics (ESS). The recommendations made during the 2018 mission for the recording of oil exports and transactions with Sudan under the Transitional Financial Agreement were implemented by the BSS. The mission worked toward enhancing the inter-agency cooperation by meeting with selected public sector bodies, providing them with an overview of the balance of payments and the data that the BSS will request from them. Before the end of the mission, requested data from one of the entities, the Civil Aviation Authority was provided. A work program was developed to conduct a visitor expenditure survey and a preliminary International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity template was submitted to IMF’s Statistics Department for review. In order to support progress in the various work areas, the mission recommended a detailed one-year action plan, with the several priority recommendations carrying weight to make headway in improving ESS reliability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; center; bill; import invoice; import entry; BSS compiler; BSS staff; balance of payments compiler; goods imports; Imports; External sector statistics; Interest payments; Government debt management; Africa; Fiscal accounting and reporting
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses that Uganda has made impressive development gains and achieved the Millennium Development Goal on halving poverty ahead of schedule. However, going forward, Uganda must create over 600,000 jobs per year to keep up with its growing population, while making further progress on poverty reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals. The authorities’ development strategy centers on infrastructure and a nascent oil sector. If investments proceed as planned, growth could range between 6 and 7 percent over the next five years. It is important to adopt an effective fiscal anchor and strengthen the budget process to become more binding for fiscal outcomes. It is also recommended to support human capital development and make growth more inclusive by improving the efficiency of public services and providing adequate budget allocations for social sectors. The consultation also suggests strengthening implementation and institutions of the governance and anti-corruption framework. Ensure that the Anti-Money Laundering/Countering the Financing of Terrorism regime is brought in line with international standards.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; exchange rate; government; infrastructure project; Uganda; management practice; debt metrics; DFID balance of payments module 2; Sta mission; oil sector investment; accommodative monetary policy stance; government intervention; Contingent liabilities; Public investment spending; Government debt management; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Africa; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: 2017 Article IV Consultation and Eighth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uganda’s recent economic performance has been sound, notwithstanding a slowdown in growth. Real GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 3.9 percent in FY2016/17, reflecting domestic factors and external headwinds, including the drought in the Horn of Africa. The banking sector remains well-capitalized overall. However, elevated nonperforming loans have constrained bank lending which contributed to the growth slowdown. Food price inflation increased owing to the drought, but core inflation was 5.1 percent in May 2017, in line with the Bank of Uganda’s target. The outlook is broadly favorable. With steadfast policy implementation and assuming improved weather conditions, growth could accelerate to 5 percent in FY2017/18.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; core inflation; rate; report; food price inflation; payment arrears; inflation outlook; staff appraisal; Bank of Uganda's Monetary Policy Committee; Arrears; Credit; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Seventh Review Under the Policy Support Instrument-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The economy has performed reasonably well in a complex environment. Growth slowed marginally in FY15/16, reflecting muted sentiment in an election year and adverse global and regional developments. Growth should nudge up in FY16/17 to 5 percent, low compared to past performance and regional peers. Credit to the private sector has stalled, and non-performing loans (NPLs) have increased, also reflecting domestic government arrears. The current account deficit is fully financed. The Shilling has stabilized after a sharp depreciation in 2015, and international reserve coverage remains adequate.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; government; scaling-up of infrastructure investment; deficit target; fell short; supply and use tables; core inflation; East AFRITAC mission; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Sixth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for a One-Year Extension-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper review Uganda’s economic performance under the program supported by the Policy Support Instrument. Despite sluggish growth in credit to the private sector, GDP growth has been supported by the implementation of large public investments. Inflation has started to decelerate toward the medium-term target, allowing for monetary policy easing. Adverse weather developments, regional and global-political and economic uncertainties, and post-election fiscal pressures may challenge the achievement of short-term growth and inflation objectives. However, provided progress on structural reforms is accelerated, the medium-term outlook remains positive, supported by future oil production, increased regional integration and inter-regional trade, and implementation of significant infrastructure projects.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy easing; Act amendment; Uganda's economy; Uganda's program; core inflation; inflation consultation clause; Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Government finance statistics; Global; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
VAR meets DSGE: Uncovering the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Low-Income Countries
Ms. Grace B Li
,
Mr. Stephen A. O'Connell
,
Mr. Christopher S Adam
,
Mr. Andrew Berg
, and
Mr. Peter J Montiel
VAR methods suggest that the monetary transmission mechanism may be weak and unreliable in low-income countries (LICs). But are structural VARs identified via short-run restrictions capable of detecting a transmission mechanism when one exists, under research conditions typical of these countries? Using small DSGEs as data-generating processes, we assess the impact on VAR-based inference of short data samples, measurement error, high-frequency supply shocks, and other features of the LIC environment. The impact of these features on finite-sample bias appears to be relatively modest when identification is valid—a strong caveat, especially in LICs. However, many of these features undermine the precision of estimated impulse responses to monetary policy shocks, and cumulatively they suggest that “insignificant” results can be expected even when the underlying transmission mechanism is strong.
Keywords:
WP; monetary policy; interest rate; transmission mechanism; Monetary Transmission Mechanism; Low Income Countries; Vector Autoregression Methods; Monte Carlo Methods; monetary policy shock; LIC environment; GDP gap; inflation rate; interest rate target; estimation environment; monetary policy effect; research environment; LIC context; features of the estimation environment; exchange-rate elasticity; monetary policy rule; Vector autoregression; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; Structural vector autoregression; Supply shocks; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Waiver of an Assessment Criterion and Modification of Assessment Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Uganda’s Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and Request for Waiver of an Assessment Criterion and Modification of Assessment Criteria. The economy of Uganda has fared well in a difficult environment. Program performance under the PSI was generally positive. All end-June and continuous quantitative assessment criteria were observed, with one exception, and so were most indicative targets. Inflation remained within the bands of the consultation clause. An unprecedented increase in tax revenue was a key achievement. However, further progress on structural reforms is needed. The authorities are rightly adjusting the policy mix. The IMF staff recommends completing the fifth review under the PSI.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; policy credibility; GDP; core inflation; policy efficacy; supply and use tables; East AFRITAC; compilation methodology; shilling depreciation; Depreciation; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uganda’s recent economic performance has been favorable. Real GDP growth is projected at 5.24 percent for FY2014/15 supported by a fiscal stimulus and a recovery in private consumption. Annual core inflation increased to 4.75 percent in May, from very depressed levels, mainly fueled by the shilling depreciation pass-through. The current account deficit is set to widen to about 9 percent of GDP reflecting increasing capital goods imports, but international reserves remain adequate. The outlook is promising. Growth is estimated at 5.75 percent in FY2015/16 and an average 6.25 percent over the medium-term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; core inflation; current account; government; real GDP; medium term inflation target; inflation targeting framework; East AFRITAC; inflation consultation clause; authorities' monetary policy; Inflation; Infrastructure; Global; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa