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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 14 items for :

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  • Books and Analytical Papers x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of South Sudan: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sector Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Mission has been undertaken to support the Bank of South Sudan (BSS) in improving external sector statistics (ESS). The recommendations made during the 2018 mission for the recording of oil exports and transactions with Sudan under the Transitional Financial Agreement were implemented by the BSS. The mission worked toward enhancing the inter-agency cooperation by meeting with selected public sector bodies, providing them with an overview of the balance of payments and the data that the BSS will request from them. Before the end of the mission, requested data from one of the entities, the Civil Aviation Authority was provided. A work program was developed to conduct a visitor expenditure survey and a preliminary International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity template was submitted to IMF’s Statistics Department for review. In order to support progress in the various work areas, the mission recommended a detailed one-year action plan, with the several priority recommendations carrying weight to make headway in improving ESS reliability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; center; bill; import invoice; import entry; BSS compiler; BSS staff; balance of payments compiler; goods imports; Imports; External sector statistics; Interest payments; Government debt management; Africa; Fiscal accounting and reporting
Cover IMF Working Papers
Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Mr. Rafael A Portillo
, and
Luis-Felipe Zanna
We study the role of the exchange rate regime, reserve accumulation, and sterilization policies in the macroeconomics of aid surges. Absent sterilization, a peg allows for almost full aid absorption — an increase in the current account deficit net of aid—delivering the same effects as those of a flexible regime but with a necessary increase in inflation. Regardless of the regime, policies that limit absorption—and result in large accumulation of reserves—are welfare reducing: they help reduce the real appreciation (and inflation under the peg), but at the expense of reducing private consumption and investment, and therefore medium-term growth.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; central bank; managed float; Africa; Aid; Exchange Rate Regimes; Reserve Accumulation Policies; Sterilization Policies; Transfer Problem; appreciation pressure; nominal exchange rate; depreciation rate; managed float regime; nominal interest rate; open economy; inflation expectation; real gross domestic product; transmission mechanism; expenditure switching; flexible exchange rate regime; reserve holding; Exchange rate arrangements; Reserves accumulation; Sterilization; Conventional peg; Exchange rate flexibility; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
When and Why Worry About Real Exchange Rate Appreciation? The Missing Link Between Dutch Disease and Growth
International Monetary Fund
We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchange rate on economic growth, the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. However, there is no evidence in the literature that Dutch disease reduces overall economic growth. Policy responses should aim at adequately managing the boom and the risks associated with it.
Keywords:
WP; natural resource; DD effect; exchange rate appreciation; open economy; DD shock; real exchange rate; Dutch disease; growth; exchange rate overvaluation; exchange rate volatility; learning by doing; exchange rate intervention; DD phenomenon; undervalued exchange rate; Dutch disease effects; overvalued exchange rate; DD model; Real exchange rates; Natural resources; Exchange rates; Asia and Pacific; Caribbean; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Departmental Papers
Tanzania: The Story of an African Transition
Mr. Roger Nord
,
Mr. Yuri V Sobolev
,
Mr. David G. Dunn
,
Alejandro Hajdenberg
,
Mr. Niko A Hobdari
,
Samar Maziad
, and
Stéphane Roudet
This volume documents Tanzania’s remarkable turnaround from severe economic distress in 1985, and reviews the economic policies that twenty years later contributed to a successful reversal. Tanzania still faces many policy and reform challenges, despite the many recent economic achievements the country has experienced.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; government; exchange rate; local government; enterprise; production function; trade diversion; monetary policy; private sector; foreign exchange; economic growth; Trade balance; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; Southern Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Welfare Gains of Aid Indexation in Small Open Economies
Anubha Dhasmana
Foreign aid flows to poor, aid-dependent economies are highly volatile and pro-cyclical. Shortfalls in aid coincide with shortfalls in GDP and government revenues. This increases the consumption volatility in aid dependent countries, thereby causing substantial welfare losses. This paper finds that indexing aid flows to exogenous shocks like a change in the terms of trade can significantly improve the welfare of aid-dependent country by lowering its output and consumption volatility. Compared to the benchmark specification with stochastic aid flows, indexation of aid flows to terms of trade shocks can reduce the cost of business cycle fluctuations in the recipient country by four percent of permanent consumption. Moreover, use of indexed aid can allow donors to reduce the aid flows by three percent without lowering the level of welfare in the recipient country.
Keywords:
WP; business cycle; developing country
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Challenges of Scaling Up Aid to Africa
Yongzheng Yang
,
Mr. Robert Powell
, and
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
This paper surveys the economic literature on the scaling-up of aid to Africa. It provides a checklist of issues that need to be considered when preparing a long term macroeconomic projection for a country involving the assumption of a significant increase in aid. Such scaling-up scenarios are most likely to be developed in the context of a country's efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) with the support of the international donor community. The paper stresses that when preparing a scaling-up scenario it is critical to have a detailed understanding of the likely use of additional aid flows.
Keywords:
WP; diminishing returns; crowding in; debt service; private sector; public spending; Aid; Exchange Rate; Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; Governance; nominal exchange rate; production function; exchange rate appreciation; revenue ratio; monetary management; Real exchange rates; Aid flows; Exchange rates; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper assesses the implications of a significant increase in the flow of external financing and grants on real GDP growth in Ethiopia. The paper presents an analysis of the sources of growth during 1991/92–2003/04, as well as an assessment of potential GDP growth. The paper also seeks to assess the historical relationship between foreign aid and the performance of the external sector in Ethiopia to establish whether foreign aid inflows have had an adverse effect on the tradable goods sector in the past.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; goods; potential GDP; appreciation; government; nontradable goods; regime; private sector development; tradable goods sector; trend capital-output ratio; merchandise export; Derg regime; Commercial banks; State-owned banks; Budget planning and preparation; Loans; Europe; Middle East; Eastern Europe; Western Hemisphere; Central Asia; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Local Financial Development and the Aid-Growth Relationship
Ms. Mwanza Nkusu
and
Selin Sayek
With official development assistance (ODA) set to rise as countries strive to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), aid effectiveness remains an important area of development policy. An increasing number of studies support the notion that ODA can contribute to growth in a nonlinear relationship. In this paper, we investigate a new hypothesis regarding this relationship: that deeper financial markets in aid-recipient countries facilitate the management of aid flows, thereby enhancing aid effectiveness. An empirical analysis, using a panel data set, finds robust support for the hypothesis.
Keywords:
WP; financial market; financial market depth; interaction term; Foreign aid; economic growth; poverty; financial development; depth indicator; financial market development; depth measure; Aid flows; Financial sector development; Real exchange rates; Development assistance; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financing Uganda'S Poverty Reduction Strategy: Is Aid Causing More Pain Than Gain?
Ms. Mwanza Nkusu
Uganda's market-friendly development strategy and poverty reduction agenda have attracted large financial inflows, including aid. During 2000-02, concerns about a possible aid-induced Dutch disease were heightened by widening macroeconomic imbalances and an upward trend in the real effective exchange rate (REER). This paper shows that the REER remained broadly stable during a 10-year period and nontraditional exports increased remarkably, contrary to the predictions of the Dutch disease model. Also, economic growth was strong. This good performance is attributed to sound macroeconomic policies and important structural reforms, which have allowed an increased use of available production factors.
Keywords:
WP; right; Uganda; ODA; terms of trade; REER; Foreign aid; exchange rates; economic growth; and poverty; ODA flow; terms of trade shock; Uganda shilling; savings-investment balance; ODA inflow; Real effective exchange rates; Exports; Dutch disease; Real exchange rates; Poverty reduction strategy
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Sustainability in African HIPC Countries: A Policy Dilemma?
Ms. Annalisa Fedelino
and
Alina Kudina
This paper looks at the link between fiscal policy and debt sustainability in a number of African countries participating in the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. The paper finds that, on the basis of current fiscal policies, debt levels will remain unsustainable even after these countries graduate from the HIPC Initiative. This finding has important policy implications. By the very requirements of the HIPC Initiative, these countries are expected to increase significantly their poverty-reducing expenditure-possibly resulting in weaker fiscal primary balances and worsening debt sustainability outlook. As offsetting fiscal tightening may not be viable, ensuring debt sustainability may thus require increased availability of (nondebt-creating) grants. Otherwise, debt sustainability in HIPC countries may prove elusive in the long term.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; Debt sustainability; HIPC Initiative; concessional financing; GDP ratio; HIPC completion point; sustainability threshold; debt level; debt ratio; debt-sustainability target; debt problem; creating flow; Fiscal stance; Exchange rate adjustments; Sub-Saharan Africa