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Africa > Uganda

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 25 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Role of Structural Fiscal Policy on Female Labor Force Participation in OECD Countries
Miyoko Asai
,
Qiaoe Chen
,
Mr. Jiro Honda
,
Xingwei Hu
, and
Qianqian Zhang
This paper examines the role of structural fiscal policies to promote female labor force participation and reduce gender gaps in labor markets in 26 OECD countries from 2000 to 2019. As both female labor force participation and many explanatory/control variables clearly exhibit non-stationarity (potentially leading to spurious regression results), we employ a panel vector error-correction model, in contrast with most previous empirical studies on this matter. Our analyses confirm statistically significant positive impacts of government spending on (1) early childcare and education, (2) active labor market programs, and (3) unemployment benefits, all of which would help encourage women to enter the labor force, while (4) an increase in relative tax rate on second earner could have negative impact on female labor force participation.
Keywords:
Fiscal Policy; Gender; Labor Force; OECD; panel unit root; panel vector error-correction model; robustness test; panel VECM result; female LFPR; age group; regression analysis; positive correlation; standard deviation; Women; Active labor market policies; Gender diversity; Unemployment benefits; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable
Omer Faruk Akbal
,
Mr. Seung M Choi
,
Mr. Futoshi Narita
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.
Keywords:
Developing economies; fragile and conflict-affected states; GDP; low-income countries; nowcasting; sub-Saharan Africa; GDP statistic; panel Nowcasting; data availability; growth data; annex II; data availablity; Commodity prices; Purchasing power parity; Data collection; Export fluctuations; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Brandon Buell
,
Reda Cherif
,
Carissa Chen
,
Jiawen Tang
, and
Nils Wendt
The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the critical need for detailed, timely information on its evolving economic impacts, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where data availability and lack of generalizable nowcasting methodologies limit efforts for coordinated policy responses. This paper presents a suite of high frequency and granular country-level indicator tools that can be used to nowcast GDP and track changes in economic activity for countries in SSA. We make two main contributions: (1) demonstration of the predictive power of alternative data variables such as Google search trends and mobile payments, and (2) implementation of two types of modelling methodologies, machine learning and parametric factor models, that have flexibility to incorporate mixed-frequency data variables. We present nowcast results for 2019Q4 and 2020Q1 GDP for Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Ghana, and argue that our factor model methodology can be generalized to nowcast and forecast GDP for other SSA countries with limited data availability and shorter timeframes.
Keywords:
model prediction; quantile plot; ML model; GDP YoY; data variable; YoY percent change; Factor models; Machine learning; Time series analysis; Spot exchange rates; Mobile banking; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Search Externalities in Firm-to-Firm Trade
I develop a model of firm-to-firm search and matching to show that the impact of falling trade costs on firm sourcing decisions and consumer welfare depends on the relative size of search externalities in domestic and international markets. These externalities can be positive if firms share information about potential matches, or negative if the market is congested. Using unique firm-to-firm transaction-level data from Uganda, I document empirical evidence consistent with positive externalities in international markets and negative externalities in domestic markets. I then build a dynamic quantitative version of the model and show that, in Uganda, a 25% reduction in trade costs led to a 3.7% increase in consumer welfare, 12% of which was due to search externalities.
Keywords:
Firm-to-Firm Trade; VAT Data; Search-and-Matching; Importing; transport cost reduction; buyer-supplier search; search externality; welfare gains from trade; consumer welfare; Imports; Labor market frictions; Search models; Value-added tax; East Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of South Sudan: Technical Assistance Report-Report on External Sector Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Mission has been undertaken to support the Bank of South Sudan (BSS) in improving external sector statistics (ESS). The recommendations made during the 2018 mission for the recording of oil exports and transactions with Sudan under the Transitional Financial Agreement were implemented by the BSS. The mission worked toward enhancing the inter-agency cooperation by meeting with selected public sector bodies, providing them with an overview of the balance of payments and the data that the BSS will request from them. Before the end of the mission, requested data from one of the entities, the Civil Aviation Authority was provided. A work program was developed to conduct a visitor expenditure survey and a preliminary International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity template was submitted to IMF’s Statistics Department for review. In order to support progress in the various work areas, the mission recommended a detailed one-year action plan, with the several priority recommendations carrying weight to make headway in improving ESS reliability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; center; bill; import invoice; import entry; BSS compiler; BSS staff; balance of payments compiler; goods imports; Imports; External sector statistics; Interest payments; Government debt management; Africa; Fiscal accounting and reporting
Cover IMF Working Papers
Using Administrative Data to Enhance Policymaking in Developing Countries: Tax Data and the National Accounts
Lisbeth Rivas
and
Mr. Joe Crowley
Statistical agencies worldwide are increasingly turning to new data sources, including administrative data, to improve statistical coverage. Administrative data can significantly enhance the quality of national statistics and produce synergies with tax administration and other government agencies, supporting better decision making, policy advice, and economic performance. Compared to economic censuses and business surveys, administrative data are less burdensome to collect and produce more timely, detailed, and accurate data with better coverage. This paper specifically explores the use of value added tax and income tax records to enhance the compilation of national accounts statistics.
Keywords:
WP; enterprise; information; tax; tax data; reporting burden; Administrative Data; National Accounts; Value Added Tax; tax authorities; tax authority; pay as you earn; Value-added tax; Personal income; Income and capital gains taxes; Data collection; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Technical Assistance Report-Initiating the Stock-Taking of the Public Investment Program
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the initiation of the stock-taking of the public investment program in Uganda. This stock-taking will provide a basis for better budgeting by providing information on the existing multi-year project commitments, and the incremental recurrent costs for operation and maintenance of the assets delivered. It will also identify a basic information structure for each project and subsequently collect a data baseline, providing a foundation for more robust project monitoring. It will aid the management of the overall project portfolio. By identifying the scale of existing multi-annual commitments, it will avoid adding projects to the investment pipeline, which cannot be financed under the Medium Term Expenditure Framework.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; PIP information; project data need; information reliability; input restriction; project template; project information; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Public investment spending; Budget planning and preparation; Data collection; Stocks
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Seventh Review Under the Policy Support Instrument-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The economy has performed reasonably well in a complex environment. Growth slowed marginally in FY15/16, reflecting muted sentiment in an election year and adverse global and regional developments. Growth should nudge up in FY16/17 to 5 percent, low compared to past performance and regional peers. Credit to the private sector has stalled, and non-performing loans (NPLs) have increased, also reflecting domestic government arrears. The current account deficit is fully financed. The Shilling has stabilized after a sharp depreciation in 2015, and international reserve coverage remains adequate.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; deficit; government; scaling-up of infrastructure investment; deficit target; fell short; supply and use tables; core inflation; East AFRITAC mission; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Government finance statistics; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Capital Account Openness in Low-income Developing Countries: Evidence from a New Database
Mrs. Sarwat Jahan
and
Daili Wang
The relevance of recording and assessing countries’ capital flow management measures is well-recognized, but very few studies have focused on low-income developing countries (LIDCs). A key constraint is the lack of an appropriate index to measure the openness of capital account and its change over time. This paper fills the gap by constructing a de jure index based on information contained in the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. It provides an aggregate index to capture the overall openness of the capital account, and also provides a breakdown of openness for various subcategories of capital flows. The new database covers 164 countries with information on 12 types of asset categories over the period 1996–2013. The index provides the largest coverage of LIDCs among all existing indices and also provides granularity on openness across asset types, direction of flows and residency. The paper examines the link between de jure capital account openness with de facto capital flows and outlines potential applications of this database.
Keywords:
WP; Openness; liberalization; market; Capital account openness; Capital flow management measure; Financial interconnectedness; Low-income developing countries; Capital flows; openness index; capital account; frontier economy; financial market liberalization; index exercise; exchange arrangement; transaction liberalization; Capital account; Capital controls; Foreign direct investment; Capital account liberalization; Asia and Pacific; East Asia; South Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Sixth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for a One-Year Extension-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper review Uganda’s economic performance under the program supported by the Policy Support Instrument. Despite sluggish growth in credit to the private sector, GDP growth has been supported by the implementation of large public investments. Inflation has started to decelerate toward the medium-term target, allowing for monetary policy easing. Adverse weather developments, regional and global-political and economic uncertainties, and post-election fiscal pressures may challenge the achievement of short-term growth and inflation objectives. However, provided progress on structural reforms is accelerated, the medium-term outlook remains positive, supported by future oil production, increased regional integration and inter-regional trade, and implementation of significant infrastructure projects.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy easing; Act amendment; Uganda's economy; Uganda's program; core inflation; inflation consultation clause; Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Government finance statistics; Global; East Africa