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Africa > Uganda

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Front Matter
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

IMF Country Report No. 24/290
Keywords:
transparency policy; BoU recapitalization; core inflation; expenditure discipline; IMF's article; Oil production; Inflation; International reserves; Fiscal space; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Statement by Mr. Mkwezalamba, Executive Director for Uganda and Ms. Gasasira-Manzi, Advisor to the Executive Director, July 7, 2017
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

2017 Article IV Consultation and Eighth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director Uganda

Keywords:
ISCR; CR; core inflation; rate; report; private sector imports; infrastructure development plan; credit growth; revenue mobilization strategy; government plan; Inflation; Credit; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Inflation targeting; Food production
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Selected Issues

Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Uganda; debt; IMF-World Bank debt sustainability framework; baseline debt projection; exchange rate; interest rate; IMF staff calculation; physical capital accumulation; Uganda's investment; productivity decline; Uganda's competitiveness; Human capital; Productivity; Exports; Labor force; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Long-Run Biological Interest Rate for Pay-As-You-Go Pensions in Advanced and Developing Countries
Mr. Masahiro Nozaki
How much of an internal rate of return would a sustainable pay-as-you-go pension system offer current and future generations equally? The answer is the sum of the Long-Run Biological Interest Rates (LBIR), the real-world equivalent of Samuelson’s (1958) biological interest rate, and future productivity growth. Reflecting global population ageing, the median LBIR across 172 countries is as low as 1 percent per year. The LBIRs are particularly low in advanced countries, estimated to be negative in many of them, and require ample financial reserves today or future productivity growth to maintain participation in pension schemes. On the other hand, the LBIRs in less developed regions, such as in sub-Saharan Africa, are relatively high, indicating a potential to use a pay-as-you-go scheme to expand the coverage of public pensions. Raising the retirement age by five years brings up the LBIR by 40 basis points, significantly improving the long-run budget constraint of a pension scheme.
Keywords:
WP; rate of return; life expectancy; LBIR estimate; Pay-as-you-go pension; internal rate of return; pension reform; contribution rate; LBIR level; RCR decrease; replacement rate; medium-fertility variant; median LBIR; Pensions; Aging; Pension spending; Productivity; Retirement; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East; Europe; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Taylor Visits Africa
Carlos Goncalves
Many low-income countries do not use interest rates as their main monetary policy instrument. In East Africa, for instance, targeting money aggregates has been pretty much the rule rather than the exception. Nevertheless, these targets are seldom met and often readjusted according to the economic environment. This opens up the possibility that central banks are de facto pursuing a strategy more akin to a Taylor Rule. Estimations of small-scale models for Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania suggest that these self-styled "monetary targeters" are respecting the Taylor Principle, that is are on average increasing nominal interest rates more than proportionally to inflation. Nevertheless, steep deviations from the Taylor Rule have taken place in Kenya and Tanzania. In Uganda, these errors are much smaller, in fact similar in size to Taylor Rule deviations found for Brazil. More surprisingly, they are smaller than South Africa’s, the continent’s sole long-term inflation targeter.
Keywords:
WP; inflation deviation; interest rate equation; Neutral interest rates; central bank; inflation target; monetary policy tightness; interest rates instrument; deviations from the Taylor Rule; inflation goal; Inflation; Output gap; Interbank rates; Inflation targeting; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review of the Policy Support Instrument—Debt Sustainability Analysis
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

KEY ISSUES Backed by sound policies, economic performance since the 2013 Article IV Consultation has been positive. In response to fiscal stimuli and credit recovery, growth is picking up from the low levels that followed the credit-boom-and-bust-cycle. Careful central bank policies kept inflation low and the financial sector stable, despite shilling volatility. Lower export demand and high infrastructure-related imports widened the current account deficit, but reserves and debt remain at comfortable levels. Performance under the PSI is on track. All end-December 2014 quantitative assessment criteria and most indicative targets and structural benchmarks were met. Key highlights include an exceptionally strong revenue performance and progress in public financial management. The inflation targeting mechanism triggered consultations with staff as average core inflation fell below the inner limit of the band. Risks to the program stem from the upcoming election, regional unrest, and capacity constraints. The envisaged policy mix should achieve further economic gains in the fiscal year starting in July. Despite the election, the authorities are committed to keeping fiscal policy within a budget that favors large infrastructure investment and sustains tax revenue collections in the context of low inflation. They also intend to closely oversee the spillovers and feedback loops between the real economy and the financial sector.1 The planned oil production, infrastructure upgrades, and regional integration bring encouraging medium-term prospects for growth and employment. The strategy will be supported by foreign direct investment; enhanced domestic revenue mobilization through additional tax collection and efforts to improve access to bank services; and increased borrowing at non-concessional but favorable terms. Staff recommends conclusion of the 2015 Article IV Consultation and supports the authorities’ request to complete the fourth PSI review. It also supports the authorities’ decision to modify two end-June 2015 ACs and to increase the continuous ceiling on the contracting or guaranteeing of new nonconcessional debt.

Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; core inflation; current account; government; real GDP; GDP deflator; long-term debt; GDP increase; dollar GDP growth; public debt-to-GDP ratio; Oil production; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Debt sustainability; GDP ratio
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Role of Productivity, Transportation Costs, and Barriers to Intersectoral Mobility in Structural Transformation
Cem Karayalcin
and
Mihaela Pintea
The process of economic development is characterized by substantial reallocations of resources across sectors. In this paper, we construct a multi-sector model in which there are barriers to the movement of labor from low-productivity traditional agriculture to modern sectors. With the barrier in place, we show that improvements in productivity in modern sectors (including agriculture) or reductions in transportation costs may lead to a rise in agricultural employment and through terms-oftrade effects may harm subsistence farmers if the traditional subsistence sector is larger than a critical level. This suggests that policy advice based on the earlier literature needs to be revised. Reducing barriers to mobility (through reductions in the cost of skill acquisition and institutional changes) and improving the productivity of subsistence farmers needs to precede policies designed to increase the productivity of modern sectors or decrease transportation costs.
Keywords:
WP; subsistence farming; terms of trade; Structural transformation; Subsistence agriculture; multi-sector models; Economic development; Transportation costs; transportation cost; agriculture sector; productivity improvement; modern agriculture; productivity difference; excess demand; improvement result; Agricultural sector; Productivity; Transportation; Manufacturing; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The East African Community: Prospects for Sustained Growth
Ms. Catherine McAuliffe
,
Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena
, and
Mr. Masafumi Yabara
The East African Community (EAC) has been among the fastest growing regions in sub-Saharan Africa in the past decade or so. Nonetheless, the recent growth path will not be enough to achieve middle-income status and substantial poverty reduction by the end of the decade—the ambition of most countries in the region. This paper builds on methodologies established in the growth literature to identify a group of countries that achieved growth accelerations and sustained growth to use as benchmarks to evaluate the prospects, and potential constraints, for EAC countries to translate their recent growth upturn into sustained high growth. We find that EAC countries compare favorably to the group of sustained growth countries—macroeconomic and government stability, favorable business climate, and strong institutions—but important differences remain. EAC countries have a smaller share of exports, lower degree of financial deepening, lower levels of domestic savings, higher reliance on donor aid, and limited physical infrastructure and human capital. Policy choices to address some of these shortcomings could make a difference in whether the EAC follows the path of sustained growth or follows other countries where growth upturns later fizzled out. 
Keywords:
WP; EAC country; EAC member; growth acceleration; EAC economy; EAC growth; Accelerated growth; sustained growth; benchmarking; East African Community; sub-Saharan Africa; EAC integration; exchange rate; private sector; common market; Exports; Financial sector; Government debt management; Productivity; Real exchange rates; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Dynamic Implications of Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries
Mr. Ales Bulir
,
Alma Romero-Barrutieta
, and
Jose Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado
The effects of debt relief on incentives to accumulate debt, consume, and invest are an important concern for donors and recipients. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy with a minimum consumption requirement and an endogenous relief probability, we show that excessive debt accumulation is consistent with an anticipation of a future debt relief. Simulations of the calibrated model using 1982-2006 Ugandan data suggest that debt-relief episodes are likely to have only a temporary impact on the level of debt in low-income countries, while being associated with more consumption and less invesment. The long-run debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated to be about twice as high with debt relief than without it.
Keywords:
WP; debt forgiveness; debt-to-GDP ratio; interest rate; Debt relief; general equilibrium model; small open economy; donor debt-relief policy; productivity shock; debt-relief rule; probability value; debt-relief probability; debt-relief lottery; debt-relief shock; debt-relief scenario; policy rule; Consumption; Productivity; Disposable income; Sub-Saharan Africa; debt-relief episode; debt-relief function; IMF Institute
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
Like most Sub-Saharan African countries, Kenya’s economic growth appears to have been primarily driven by factor accumulation. The Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for Kenya examines economic developments and policies. During the last two decades, Kenya has been plagued by pervasive problems of internal conflicts, constitutional crises, and corruption scandals. The governance agenda focuses on several reforms, including upgrading the public budget and financial management systems, strengthening the anticorruption institutions, and improving the judicial framework.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kenya; pay; inflation; TFP growth; wage bill; Reduced-Form inflation equation; development objective; governance agenda; growth performance; bill-to-domestic revenue; Tariffs; Total factor productivity; Wages; Real exchange rates; Imports; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East; Africa; East Asia; Central and Eastern Europe