The September 2007 issue of F&D looks at the growth of cities and the trend toward urbanization. Within the next year, for the first time in history, more than 50 percent of the world's population will be living in urban rather than rural areas. What are the economic implications of this urban revolution? Economists generally agree that urbanization, if handled well, holds great promise for higher growth and a better quality of life. But as the lead article tells us, the flip side is also true: if handled poorly, urbanization could not only impede development but also give rise to slums. Other articles in this series look at poverty as an urban phenomenon in the developing world and the development of megacities and what this means for governance, funding, and the provision of services. Another group of articles discusses the challenge of rebalancing growth in China. 'People in Economics' profiles Harvard economist Robert Barro; 'Country Focus' looks at the challenges facing Mexico, and 'Back to Basics' takes a look at real exchange rates.
This paper reviews the resurgence of Latin America. The paper highlights that much of the region has witnessed a swift and robust recovery from the successive financial crises of 2001–02. Within two years, the region’s economic growth reached 5.6 percent in 2004, a 24-year high. Growth rates of about 4 percent in 2005 and 3¾ percent projected for 2006 are well above historical averages. Mexico and South American countries have gained, in particular, from the surge in fuel, food, and metals prices, and have generally been able to exploit these opportunities by expanding production.
For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.
Abstract
The past century has been marked by rapid advances in human welfare. People in most parts of the world are healthier and are living longer. While this trend is likely to continue, hopes are fading in some regions where progress slowed or stopped in the1990s, primarily as a result of the AIDS epidemic. This compilation of articles published over the past five years in the pages of F&D looks at the important links between health and economic progress. Articles range over a variety of topics, from the Millennium Development Goals and their health-related targets for 2015 to the economics of tobacco control. Several articles examine the impact of AIDS and the global reaction, while others look at debt and the intellectual property aspects of health care.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the macroeconomics of HIV/AIDS. The paper highlights that the mortality and morbidity associated with AIDS make it unlike most other types of sickness and disease. The paper describes the most common approaches used in accounting for growth in the context of an HIV/AIDS epidemic. The impact of HIV/AIDS on education and the accumulation of human capital is discussed. The paper also discusses the impact of HIV/AIDS on the public sector, and elaborates certain demographic events specific to the HIV/AIDS pandemic.
For the latest thinking about the international financial system, monetary policy, economic development, poverty reduction, and other critical issues, subscribe to Finance & Development (F&D). This lively quarterly magazine brings you in-depth analyses of these and other subjects by the IMF’s own staff as well as by prominent international experts. Articles are written for lay readers who want to enrich their understanding of the workings of the global economy and the policies and activities of the IMF.
Abstract
It is now 20 years since the first cases of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) were discovered in sub-Saharan Africa. At the beginning of the third decade of the global pandemic, AIDS has reversed gains in life expectancy and improvements in child mortality in many countries; mortality among the population aged 15–49 has increased manyfold, even in countries with modest epidemics.1 AIDS is the leading cause of mortality among adults (WHO, 2004). According to estimates by the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS), as of the end of 2003, over 20 million people had died of AIDS. Some 38 million people are estimated to be living with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the virus that causes AIDS, the overwhelming majority of whom—over 90 percent—are in the developing world.
Abstract
Any discussion of the impact of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) on health care systems must distinguish between treatment of the opportunistic illnesses associated with AIDS and treatment directed at the underlying cause, namely, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Treatment of opportunistic illnesses can alleviate suffering but typically extends life by only months. Treatment that controls the HIV in the patient’s body, called antiretroviral therapy or ART, can be much more successful, adding years to life expectancy.
Abstract
In many countries, the HIV/AIDS epidemic has attained a scale at which the impact on the economy and, even more broadly, on societies, is both evident and very serious. Through its broad economic impact, HIV/AIDS thus becomes an issue for macroeconomic analysis, and policies to prevent the spread of the virus have direct implications for key economic indicators such as economic growth and income per capita,1 and for economic development more generally. However, because the impact is very uneven across individuals or households, an analysis that captures only the main aggregate economic variables would miss many of the microeconomic effects of HIV/AIDS on living standards, which also matter for public policy and which, in turn, affect the main aggregate economic variables, for example through the accumulation of physical and human capital.
Abstract
In his book Plagues and Peoples, McNeill (1976) views history as the interplay between an array of parasites and their human hosts—a struggle in which communicable diseases and human responses to them have profound social, economic, and cultural effects. Following the outbreak of the AIDS epidemic in the 1980s, humanity must now contend with a new great plague, the scale and character of which will surely put McNeill’s thesis to the test. One vital lesson to be drawn from his account is that any attempt to understand the effects of the AIDS epidemic must take a long-term perspective. That is a salient feature of the approach we adopt here: we will argue that, from modest beginnings, the economic damage caused by AIDS can assume catastrophic proportions over the long run, and thereby threaten the social fabric itself.