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Africa > Uganda

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Front Matter
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

IMF Country Report No. 24/290
Keywords:
transparency policy; BoU recapitalization; core inflation; expenditure discipline; IMF's article; Oil production; Inflation; International reserves; Fiscal space; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines tax policy and administrative changes in Eastern African Community (EAC) countries with a view to benchmark Kenya’s experience and draw lessons for future tax reforms. Using granular data from a new IMF database on tax measures announced during 1988–2022, it concludes that EAC policymakers frequently changed their tax system and administrations by announcing tax packages that typically consisted of measures to narrow the tax base and strengthen tax administrative practices. Kenya appeared to be one of the EAC countries that most frequently announced and introduced such changes, which might have played a significant role in explaining the reduction in the tax-to-gross domestic product ratio experienced by the country since 2014. The conclusions of this note are subject to caveats, as the frequency of tax measures is not an indicator of the actual revenue impact of such measures. Looking at the frequency of changes, however, can help identify reform episodes providing a sense of their duration and comprehensiveness.
Keywords:
public sector balance sheet methodology; exchange rate shock; public sector balance sheet vulnerability; public sector balance sheet approach; HM Treasury; EAC policymaker; Tax-to-GDP ratio; Financial statements; Exchange rates; Public sector; Fiscal risks; Global; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Working Papers
Improving Crop Yields in Sub-Saharan Africa - What Does the East African Data Say
Mr. Alun H. Thomas
Recent micro level data from East Africa is used to benchmark aggregate data and assess the role of agricultural inputs in explaining variation in crop yields on smallholding plots. Fertilizer, improved seeds, protection against erosion and pesticides improve crop yields in Rwanda and Ethiopia, but not Uganda, possibly associated with lack of use there. With all positive yield determinants in place, wheat and maize yields could increase fourfold. The data hints at the negative effect of climate change on yields and the benefits of accompanying measures to mitigate its adverse impact (access to finance and protection against erosion). The adverse effect of crop damage on yields varies between 12/13 percent (Rwanda, Uganda) to 36 percent (Ethiopia). Protection against erosion and investment financing mitigate these effects considerably.
Keywords:
WP; yield; crop; crop yield; Rwanda; Ethiopia; East Africa; inputs; crop damage; yield determinant; Ethiopia crop; aggregate yield data; Agroindustries; Consumption; Agricultural sector; Agricultural commodities; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Climate change
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ghana: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses growth strategy for Ghana. Ghana has achieved impressive development gains over the last decades, with rising incomes, lower poverty, and better health, education, and gender outcomes. However, growth has recently become less inclusive, with high inequality and slower poverty reduction. In order to address these challenges, the authorities are pursuing a “Ghana beyond Aid” development strategy centered around agricultural modernization and export-led industrialization. Accelerating productivity growth calls for fostering competition, improving the business environment, strengthening human capital, taking advantage of growing regional markets and industrial policies that prioritize sectors that can export and innovate and where Ghana could achieve economies of scale. Consistent and predictable government policies can help increase long-term investment and improve public spending effectiveness. A key lesson from growth accelerations in other countries is that it is crucial to achieve economies of scale. In most cases, rapid economic growth required achieving export success in specific sectors.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Ghana; asset; bank; industry; liability; per capita income; public sector; bank intermediation cost; structural change; gas assets; banking system; extractive industry; processing industries in Ghana; value chain; exposure to the commodity cycle; government balance sheet; bank profitability; Financial statements; Public sector; Commercial banks; Business enterprises; Nonperforming loans; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Statement by Mr. Mkwezalamba, Executive Director for Uganda and Ms. Gasasira-Manzi, Advisor to the Executive Director, July 7, 2017
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

2017 Article IV Consultation and Eighth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director Uganda

Keywords:
ISCR; CR; core inflation; rate; report; private sector imports; infrastructure development plan; credit growth; revenue mobilization strategy; government plan; Inflation; Credit; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Inflation targeting; Food production
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation and Fourth Review of the Policy Support Instrument—Debt Sustainability Analysis
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

KEY ISSUES Backed by sound policies, economic performance since the 2013 Article IV Consultation has been positive. In response to fiscal stimuli and credit recovery, growth is picking up from the low levels that followed the credit-boom-and-bust-cycle. Careful central bank policies kept inflation low and the financial sector stable, despite shilling volatility. Lower export demand and high infrastructure-related imports widened the current account deficit, but reserves and debt remain at comfortable levels. Performance under the PSI is on track. All end-December 2014 quantitative assessment criteria and most indicative targets and structural benchmarks were met. Key highlights include an exceptionally strong revenue performance and progress in public financial management. The inflation targeting mechanism triggered consultations with staff as average core inflation fell below the inner limit of the band. Risks to the program stem from the upcoming election, regional unrest, and capacity constraints. The envisaged policy mix should achieve further economic gains in the fiscal year starting in July. Despite the election, the authorities are committed to keeping fiscal policy within a budget that favors large infrastructure investment and sustains tax revenue collections in the context of low inflation. They also intend to closely oversee the spillovers and feedback loops between the real economy and the financial sector.1 The planned oil production, infrastructure upgrades, and regional integration bring encouraging medium-term prospects for growth and employment. The strategy will be supported by foreign direct investment; enhanced domestic revenue mobilization through additional tax collection and efforts to improve access to bank services; and increased borrowing at non-concessional but favorable terms. Staff recommends conclusion of the 2015 Article IV Consultation and supports the authorities’ request to complete the fourth PSI review. It also supports the authorities’ decision to modify two end-June 2015 ACs and to increase the continuous ceiling on the contracting or guaranteeing of new nonconcessional debt.

Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; core inflation; current account; government; real GDP; GDP deflator; long-term debt; GDP increase; dollar GDP growth; public debt-to-GDP ratio; Oil production; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Debt sustainability; GDP ratio
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Role of Productivity, Transportation Costs, and Barriers to Intersectoral Mobility in Structural Transformation
Cem Karayalcin
and
Mihaela Pintea
The process of economic development is characterized by substantial reallocations of resources across sectors. In this paper, we construct a multi-sector model in which there are barriers to the movement of labor from low-productivity traditional agriculture to modern sectors. With the barrier in place, we show that improvements in productivity in modern sectors (including agriculture) or reductions in transportation costs may lead to a rise in agricultural employment and through terms-oftrade effects may harm subsistence farmers if the traditional subsistence sector is larger than a critical level. This suggests that policy advice based on the earlier literature needs to be revised. Reducing barriers to mobility (through reductions in the cost of skill acquisition and institutional changes) and improving the productivity of subsistence farmers needs to precede policies designed to increase the productivity of modern sectors or decrease transportation costs.
Keywords:
WP; subsistence farming; terms of trade; Structural transformation; Subsistence agriculture; multi-sector models; Economic development; Transportation costs; transportation cost; agriculture sector; productivity improvement; modern agriculture; productivity difference; excess demand; improvement result; Agricultural sector; Productivity; Transportation; Manufacturing; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Departmental Papers
Réforme des subventions énergétiques en Afrique subsaharienne: expériences et enseignements
Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne
and
Mr. Mumtaz Hussain
La réforme des subventions énergétiques est un problème important et difficile pour les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne. Un nombre relativement important d’études théoriques et empiriques ont été consacrées à cette question. Si ce rapport s’inspire de ces études, il examine toutefois plus précisément la situation des pays d’Afrique subsaharienne de manière à répondre aux questions suivantes: pourquoi est-il important de réduire les subventions énergétiques? Quelles sont les difficultés que pose la réforme des subventions énergétiques? Quel est le meilleur moyen de procéder à une telle réforme? Ce rapport se fonde sur diverses sources d’information sur les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne et notamment des évaluations quantitatives, des enquêtes et des études de cas particulières (mais standardisées).
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; fuel subsidy; average cost; retail price; subsidy reform; unit price
Cover Departmental Papers
Energy Subsidy Reform in Sub-Saharan Africa: Experiences and Lessons
Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne
and
Mr. Mumtaz Hussain
The reform of energy subsidies is an important but challenging issue for sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. There is a relatively large theoretical and empirical literature on this issue. While this paper relies on that literature, too, it tailors its discussion to SSA countries to respond to the following questions: Why it is important to reduce energy subsidies? What are the difficulties involved in energy subsidy reform? How best can a subsidy reform be implemented? This paper uses various sources of information on SSA countries: quantitative assessments, surveys, and individual (but standardized) case studies.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; fuel subsidy; average cost; retail price; subsidy reform; unit price; SSA country; Energy subsidy; fixed charge; federal government; opportunity cost; Energy subsidies; Fuel prices; Tariffs; Electricity; Inflation; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East and Central Asia; Global; West Africa
Cover Policy Papers
Case Studies on Energy Subsidy Reform—Lessons and Implications - Supplement
International Monetary Fund
This supplement presents country case studies reviewing energy subsidy reform experiences, which are the basis for the reform lessons identified in the main paper. The selection of countries for the case studies reflects the availability of data and of previously documented evidence on country-specific reforms. The 22 country case studies were also chosen to provide cases from all regions and a mix of outcomes from reform. The studies cover 19 countries, including seven from sub-Saharan Africa, two in developing Asia, three in the Middle East and North Africa, four in Latin America and the Caribbean, and three in Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS. The case studies are organized by energy product, with 14 studies of the reform of petroleum product subsidies, seven studies of the reform of electricity subsidies, and a case study of subsidy reform for coal. The larger number of studies on fuel subsidies reflects the wider availability of data and past studies for these reforms. The structure of each case study is similar, with each one providing the context of the reform and a description of the reforms; discussion of the impact of the reform on energy prices or subsidies and its success or failure; mitigating measures that were implemented in an attempt to generate public support for the reform and offset adverse effects on the poor; and, finally, identification of lessons for designing reforms.
Keywords:
PP; exchange rate; fuel price; private sector; rate of return; stabilization fund; subsidy reform; transfer program; reform program; Fuel prices; Tariffs; Inflation; Energy subsidies; Electricity; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa