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Africa > Uganda

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Front Matter
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Keywords:
development program; United Nations population fund; Uganda shilling; IMF executive directors; SDG index; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Electricity; Global
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Uganda: Technical Assistance Report-The Cost of Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals in Human Capital and Infrastructure Development
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
The mission estimates that making substantial progress in critical SDG sectors in Uganda would require additional annual spending of about 18.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. Relative to low-income developing countries (LIDCs), additional spending in Uganda is higher in the social sectors and lower in the infrastructure sectors (Figure). Overall, Uganda’s additional spending is above the median LIDC and similar to the median Sub-Saharan African (SSA) country. (This analysis is an assessment of the spending to achieve a high performance in selected SDGs in Uganda and does not include an examination of options to finance the spending needs.) • Health—expanding the supply of medical staff. Total health care spending is low (4.2 percent of GDP) relative to peers, and there is substantial room to increase the efficiency of spending: health outcomes are below those of several other countries with similar spending. Overall, we estimate that total health care spending would have to gradually increase by an additional 7.4 percent of GDP in 2030 relative to today’s spending, to deliver superior health care outcomes. A major contributor to the additional cost is the need to substantially increase the supply of doctors—more than 16-fold—and to nearly triple the number of other health personnel. • Education—strengthening both quality and quantity of services. Uganda’s young population—60 percent are school-aged, a higher share than in the East African Community (EAC) and LIDC peers—combined with a relatively low enrollment rate, means that the country needs to invest in getting its children into schools. However, just as important is improving the currently low level of educational quality. Toward this goal, class sizes need to fall by hiring more teachers, thus bringing the student-teacher ratio down from 28 to 19. Public spending, currently well below LIDC and EAC averages, would need to triple as a share of GDP to help deliver on these goals. We estimate that Uganda’s total expenditures on education would need to increase by an additional 6.7 percent of GDP from its current level of 7.1 percent of GDP. • Water and sanitation—aiming at safely managed water and sanitation for all. Uganda is below regional and income-group peers in water and sanitation standards. In particular, while there has been progress in water provision, sanitation services have hardly improved in the past two decades, and its provision is lower than most countries in the subregion. Closing the water and sanitation gaps will require an additional annual spending of 1.1 percent of GDP, including maintenance costs to counteract depreciation. The bulk of the cost burden comes from safely managed water in rural areas, given the relatively high unit cost of such facilities and the large rural population unserved by this type of facility. • Electricity—investing in transmission and distribution networks to increase access. The vast majority of Uganda’s electricity is generated by renewable energy (hydropower). Overall electricity consumption per capita, at 83kilowatt-hour (kWh), strongly lags LIDCs and is below what would be expected given its level of GDP per capita. Transmission and distribution networks need to catch up with installed capacity, which, at 1,347 megawatts (MW), is far ahead of peak demand at 793 MW. We estimate that expanding current access, serving the future population through 2030, and increasing consumption in line with economic growth, will require annual investments reaching 0.4 percent of GDP in 2030. • Roads—gradually increasing rural access. Raising access to roads from its current level of 53 percent of the rural population to 75 percent by 2030 will require about 20.4 thousand additional kilometers of all-weather roads. While rural road access is higher than LIDCs, road quality lags subregional peers, thus the expansion of access will also need to include upgrading of roads in that are in poor condition. We estimate that this will require annual investments of 2.8 percent of GDP in 2030.
Keywords:
Uganda; Sustainable Development Goals; Social Spending; Infrastructure Spending.; EU-International Monetary Fund; IMF resident Representative; IMF team; FAD department; SDG index; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Aggregate Shocks and the Formation of Preferences and Beliefs
Paola Giuliano
and
Antonio Spilimbergo
A growing body of work has shown that aggregate shocks affect the formation of preferences and beliefs. This article reviews evidence from sociology, social psychology, and economics to assess the relevance of aggregate shocks, whether the period in which they are experienced matters, and whether they alter preferences and beliefs permanently. We review the literature on recessions, inflation experiences, trade shocks, and aggregate non-economic shocks including migrations, wars, terrorist attacks, pandemics, and natural disasters. For each aggregate shock, we discuss the main empirical methodologies, their limitations, and their comparability across studies, outlining possible mechanisms whenever available. A few conclusions emerge consistently across the reviewed papers. First, aggregate shocks impact many preferences and beliefs, including political preferences, risk attitudes, and trust in institutions. Second, the effect of shocks experienced during young adulthood is stronger and longer lasting. Third, negative aggregate economic shocks generally move preferences and beliefs to the right of the political spectrum, while the effects of non-economic adverse shocks are more heterogeneous and depend on the context.
Keywords:
trade shock; inflation experience; effect of shock; economic shock; beliefs to the right; Economic recession; Natural disasters; Migration; Inflation; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues Paper analyzes potential macro-financial risks from cross-sectoral exposures in Uganda by leveraging on the Balance Sheet Approach framework. It presents evidence on the macro-financial linkages in Uganda using the Network Map and Financial Input-Output approaches. On the one hand, the Network Map analysis shows the cross-sectoral exposures in which potential build-up of macro-financial vulnerabilities may arise. On the other hand, the Financial Input-Output tool simulates relevant scenarios in the context of Ugandan economy such as currency depreciation and increases in government interest payments on debt held by banks. The purpose of the scenario exercises is to strengthen the monitoring of the developments in key economic sectors in Uganda. While the banking sector, which dominates the Ugandan financial system, remains fundamentally sound, there are pockets of vulnerabilities resulting from the growing sovereign-bank nexus and cross-border exposures of the Near Field Communication technology sector which require close vigilance.
Keywords:
B. monetary policy framework; reducing job search time; policy rate; youth employment trend; NFC sector; C. youth employment trend; Policy rate response; bank Lending rate; Central bank policy rate; Exchange rates; Women; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uganda has navigated the post pandemic recovery well due to sound macroeconomic policies. The economic recovery is strengthening with low inflation, favorable agricultural production, and strong industrial and services activity. While public debt is sustainable, low tax revenues constrain Uganda’s fiscal policy space. Strengthening domestic revenue mobilization and budgetary and cash management practices are key to securing a durable fiscal space. The Bank of Uganda’s tight monetary policy stance has helped anchor inflation expectations and counter external sector pressures. Going forward, monetary policy should remain data driven to ensure price stability and further financial deepening. Continued flexibility of the exchange rate is important to build up adequate foreign exchange reserves. Uganda should continue its efforts to create fiscal space through revenue mobilization and better expenditure discipline, vigilant monetary policy, and exchange rate flexibility, using future oil revenue to address growth impediments and improve social development while advancing governance reform and financial inclusion. Addressing governance deficiencies and regulatory burdens and enhancing regional trade integration are critical to unlocking Uganda’s growth potential.
Keywords:
IMF staff calculation; NDP IV; inflation expectation; fiscal consolidation effort; core inflation; data dependent; headline inflation; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Debt sustainability; Global; Africa; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Reducing Informality to Raise Productivity and Promote Inclusion in Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

This paper leverages the 2015 International Labor Organization (ILO) School to Work Transition Survey (SWTS) for Uganda to examine the determinants facilitating the transition of youth workers from informal to formal employment. SWTS enables analysis using micro data pertaining to youth’s prevailing conditions. The analysis indicates that fostering private sector led growth, investing in education and skills development, implementing targeted programs and, advancing gender parity are essential strategies to mitigate informality.
Keywords:
employment opportunity; youth labor market experience; School to Work Transition Survey; job quality; employment outcome; Employment; Informal employment; Labor markets; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Social and Economic Programs and Gender Inclusion
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Across several social and economic dimensions Uganda scores relatively well in sub-Saharan Africa in terms of gender gaps. Yet, despite a progressive institutional framework, women continue facing higher poverty and vulnerability, lower education opportunities, and obstacles to acquiring productive assets. While existing social protection and economic (i.e. poverty-reducing) programs do not show gender exclusion given the need to close the remaining gaps in opportunities and outcomes consideration could be given to strengthening direct gender targeting and increasing programmatic support.
Keywords:
fund staff estimate; OWC program; gender policy framework; NUSAF program; revolving fund; Gender inequality; Financial inclusion; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Policy Papers
Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects for Low-Income Countries—2024—Online Annexes
International Monetary Fund
and
World Bank

MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND PROSPECTS FOR LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES—2024—ONLINE ANNEXES

Keywords:
transfer program; poverty alleviation impact; benefit increase scenario; benefit adequacy; benefit level; Poverty reduction
Cover Policy Papers
Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects For Low-Income Countries—2024
International Monetary Fund
and
World Bank
The outlook for Low-Income Countries (LICs) is gradually improving, but they face persistent macroeconomic vulnerabilities, including liquidity challenges due to high debt service. There is significant heterogeneity among LICs: the poorest and most fragile countries have faced deep scarring from the pandemic, while those with diversified economies and Frontier Markets are faring better. Achieving inclusive growth and building resilience are essential for LICs to converge with more advanced economies and meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Building resilience will also be critical in the context of a more shock-prone world. This requires both decisive domestic actions, including expanding and better targeting Social Safety Nets (SSNs), and substantial external support, including adequate financing, policy advice, capacity development and, where needed, debt relief. The Fund is further stepping up its support through targeted policy advice, capacity building, and financing.
Keywords:
Low-Income Countries; Heterogeneity; Debt vulnerability; Resilience building; Inclusive growth towards SDGs; Financing needs and external support; Social Safety Nets; poverty rate; means testing; poverty gap; aggregate poverty gap; SSNS spending; prospects in low-income countries; poverty threshold exit poverty; reform scenario; transparency policy; FAD financing tool; financial support; Poverty reduction; Household consumption; Inflation; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Front Matter
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

IMF Country Report No. 24/77

Keywords:
inflation risk; B. minimizing inflation; inflation outlook; transparency policy; development expenditure; Inflation; Fiscal consolidation; Credit; Global