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Africa > Uganda

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uganda has navigated the post pandemic recovery well due to sound macroeconomic policies. The economic recovery is strengthening with low inflation, favorable agricultural production, and strong industrial and services activity. While public debt is sustainable, low tax revenues constrain Uganda’s fiscal policy space. Strengthening domestic revenue mobilization and budgetary and cash management practices are key to securing a durable fiscal space. The Bank of Uganda’s tight monetary policy stance has helped anchor inflation expectations and counter external sector pressures. Going forward, monetary policy should remain data driven to ensure price stability and further financial deepening. Continued flexibility of the exchange rate is important to build up adequate foreign exchange reserves. Uganda should continue its efforts to create fiscal space through revenue mobilization and better expenditure discipline, vigilant monetary policy, and exchange rate flexibility, using future oil revenue to address growth impediments and improve social development while advancing governance reform and financial inclusion. Addressing governance deficiencies and regulatory burdens and enhancing regional trade integration are critical to unlocking Uganda’s growth potential.
Keywords:
IMF staff calculation; NDP IV; inflation expectation; fiscal consolidation effort; core inflation; data dependent; headline inflation; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Debt sustainability; Global; Africa; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

We analyze macro-financial linkages in Uganda using the “from-whom-to-whom” balance sheet approach (BSA) framework.2 While the banking sector, which dominates the Ugandan financial system, remains fundamentally sound, there are pockets of vulnerabilities resulting from the growing sovereign-bank nexus and cross-border exposures of the NFC sector which require close vigilance.
Keywords:
sovereign-bank nexus; sector credit; bank deposits-to-GDP; government-bank nexus; bank Deposits-to-GDP; Interest payments; Government debt management; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Staff Report for the 2024 Article IV Consultation—Debt Sustainability Analysis
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

UGANDA
Keywords:
GDP deflator; localcurrency government securities; Ugandan authorities; authorities transition; short-term debt; Contingent liabilities; Debt sustainability analysis; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of a Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Uganda’s Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, the Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of a Performance Criterion and the Financing Assurance Review. The program aims to support the near-term response to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and boost inclusive private sector-led long-term growth. Reforms focus on creating fiscal space for priority social spending, preserving debt sustainability, strengthening governance and reducing corruption, and enhancing the monetary and financial sector frameworks. The Ugandan economy is projected to grow by 5.5 percent in FY 22/23 and 6 percent in FY 23/24. Inflation has been declining and is expected to reach the Bank of Uganda’s medium-term target of 5% core inflation by end-2023. A stronger tightening of global financial conditions would constrain the availability of syndicated loans and weigh on financial sector stability. Fiscal consolidation and tight monetary policy remain essential to keep debt on a sustainable path. Structural reforms will need to continue focusing on strengthening governance and anticorruption frameworks, enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, and boosting financial inclusion.
Keywords:
FX reserves-financed government import; core inflation; steadfast adherence; excise duty regime; monetary policy implementation; Credit; Debt sustainability; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of a Performance Criterion—Debt Sustainability Analysis
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

UGANDA

Keywords:
mitigating debt risk; exports threshold; burden indicator; service-to-exports ratio; dynamics equation; Contingent liabilities; Debt service ratios; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of a Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

1. Macroeconomic outlook. The economy is recovering from shocks induced by the war in Ukraine and the Ebola outbreak, which affected tourism. Robust industrial activity and services have supported growth while unfavorable weather conditions for agriculture have improved. Inflation appears to have peaked. Thanks to a strong public health effort, the recent Ebola outbreak was declared concluded in January. The growth outlook is slightly more favorable in the near-term relative to the combined 2nd and 3rd reviews, while the end-2023 and FY23/24 inflation projections have been marked down. The current account deficit remains elevated and external financial conditions continue to be tight, reflecting the uncertain outlook for global financial conditions and risk sentiment. The global financial market turmoil that began in March could further tighten external financial conditions if it persists, and the conflict in Sudan could hurt exports and exert further pressure on the balance of payments.

Keywords:
monetary policy stance; core inflation; budget support; financing needs; IMF obligation; Credit; Imports; International reserves; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Second and Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement; and Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Rephasing of Access; Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Uganda’s Second and Third Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Rephasing of Access. The Ugandan authorities are persevering in their reforms despite facing multiple shocks from an unfavorable external environment and new public health challenges. The authorities remain committed to implementing reforms supported by the ECF. Maintaining macroeconomic stability, improving budget composition, and reducing government financing needs will help boost private sector growth and improve people’s livelihoods. Continued resolute and timely implementation of structural reforms, including anticorruption and governance measures, remains key for the success of the program. The Ebola outbreak, rising security challenges, and further spillovers from the war in Ukraine represent the main risks. Uganda’s moderate level of public debt and continued access to concessional financing would provide space to achieve program objectives. A structural benchmark on the asset declaration regime was converted into a prior action for the review and has been met.
Keywords:
data release; energy price shock; staff appraisal; high frequency indicator; core inflation; Inflation; Credit; Imports; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Second and Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement; and Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion and Rephasing of Access; Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

1. Macro outlook. The recovery from the pandemic is expected to continue, but the outlook has become more challenging in recent months. Growth has slowed because of weakening domestic demand and spillovers from the war in Ukraine. Inflation has increased, reflecting drought and higher imported commodity prices, such as food, fuel and fertilizer. Price pressures have broadened to services and goods beyond fuel and food.

Keywords:
headline inflation; core inflation; transfer program; social spending; IMF obligation; Credit; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: 2021 Article IV Consultation and First Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests for Modifications of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The authorities have reacted to the COVID-19 crisis in an appropriate manner, including through increased spending on health and a rollout of the vaccination program. Nevertheless, the deterioration of socio-economic indicators during the pandemic could create scars that would significantly lower growth if left unaddressed.
Keywords:
vis-à-vis nonresident; asset declaration regime; economic reform reform program; business-centric reform; excise duty regime; COVID-19; Credit; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Staff Report for the 2021 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria—Debt Sustainability Analysis
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

The authorities have reacted to the COVID-19 crisis in an appropriate manner, including through increased spending on health and a rollout of the vaccination program. Nevertheless, the deterioration of socio-economic indicators during the pandemic could create scars that would significantly lower growth if left unaddressed.

Keywords:
debt burden indicator; mitigating debt risk; exports threshold; debt transparency; dynamics equation; Contingent liabilities; Government debt management; Debt sustainability; Global; Africa; sustainability framework