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Africa > Uganda

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Uganda’s Fifth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Economic recovery continues to gain strength following a rapid decline in inflation, favorable agriculture and robust industrial and services activity. Fiscal financing and foreign portfolio flows are facing headwinds amid tight global financial conditions and the passage of the Anti-Homosexuality Act in May 2023. The authorities are implementing fiscal consolidation to contain vulnerabilities, maintaining a moderately tight monetary stance in the face of upside risks to inflation and undertaking reforms to improve governance and reduce corruption. All September 2023 quantitative performance criteria were met, as well as most June 2023 indicative targets (ITs). Preliminary data suggest that the December 2023 IT for net credit to government and inflation were met but the IT for net international reserves was missed. Four out of seven structural benchmarks for the current review were met on or before test dates, and one was completed with a delay.
Keywords:
government debt service; inflation risk; excise duty regime; inflation outlook; authorities' effort; ECF program; financing risk; Inflation; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Credit; Imports; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Rwanda: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper revisits Rwanda’s options to create fiscal space to meet long-term development challenges. It examines strategies and options for a credible and comprehensive domestic revenue mobilization. The paper analyzes the driving factors of past reform successes and use an original dataset to highlight the benefits of implementing comprehensive tax reforms over selective reforms. The paper concludes that selective measures tend to yield protracted loss of revenue while measures implemented comprehensively lead to increases in revenue in the medium term. This stresses the need for an integrated approach to fiscal policy reform coordination to maximize long-term revenue benefits. For Rwanda, a comprehensive strategy for increasing tax revenues by adjusting rates, broadening the domestic tax base, improving tax compliance, and curbing tax evasion is the way forward. The strategy should shift higher tax burden from low-income households to higher income wealth cohorts with the view to advancing distributional fairness against growing inequality.
Keywords:
climate agenda; NDC financing; monetary policy transmission; financing option; implementation framework; Climate finance; Natural disasters; Central bank policy rate; Value-added tax; Global; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Front Matter
Ms. Katherine Baer
,
Ms. Margaret Cotton
,
Elizabeth Gavin
,
Cindy Negus
, and
Katrina R Williams
Keywords:
Gender inequality; Tax law
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Gender and Revenue Administration: Principles and Practices
Ms. Katherine Baer
,
Ms. Margaret Cotton
,
Elizabeth Gavin
,
Cindy Negus
, and
Katrina R Williams
This technical note provides an overview of current issues and ideas that revenue administrations can consider regarding gender equality. It discusses the interactions between revenue administrations and gender equality and explores how revenue administrations can administer gender-sensitive tax laws effectively and apply a gender lens when administering tax or trade laws with a view to reducing barriers for women’s employment, entrepreneurship, and trade. It also provides practical considerations for a revenue administration in building gender perspectives in reform plans and shares several examples that highlight targeted measures that have led to positive outcomes in several countries.
Keywords:
fiscal reform; gender equality; gender-sensitive tax laws; inclusive growth; revenue administration; revenue recovery; sustainable growth; gender lens; sex discrimination-law; administering tax; staff distribution; administration staff; Women; Gender inequality; Gender diversity; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of a Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Uganda’s Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, the Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of a Performance Criterion and the Financing Assurance Review. The program aims to support the near-term response to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and boost inclusive private sector-led long-term growth. Reforms focus on creating fiscal space for priority social spending, preserving debt sustainability, strengthening governance and reducing corruption, and enhancing the monetary and financial sector frameworks. The Ugandan economy is projected to grow by 5.5 percent in FY 22/23 and 6 percent in FY 23/24. Inflation has been declining and is expected to reach the Bank of Uganda’s medium-term target of 5% core inflation by end-2023. A stronger tightening of global financial conditions would constrain the availability of syndicated loans and weigh on financial sector stability. Fiscal consolidation and tight monetary policy remain essential to keep debt on a sustainable path. Structural reforms will need to continue focusing on strengthening governance and anticorruption frameworks, enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, and boosting financial inclusion.
Keywords:
FX reserves-financed government import; core inflation; steadfast adherence; excise duty regime; monetary policy implementation; Credit; Debt sustainability; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of a Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

1. Macroeconomic outlook. The economy is recovering from shocks induced by the war in Ukraine and the Ebola outbreak, which affected tourism. Robust industrial activity and services have supported growth while unfavorable weather conditions for agriculture have improved. Inflation appears to have peaked. Thanks to a strong public health effort, the recent Ebola outbreak was declared concluded in January. The growth outlook is slightly more favorable in the near-term relative to the combined 2nd and 3rd reviews, while the end-2023 and FY23/24 inflation projections have been marked down. The current account deficit remains elevated and external financial conditions continue to be tight, reflecting the uncertain outlook for global financial conditions and risk sentiment. The global financial market turmoil that began in March could further tighten external financial conditions if it persists, and the conflict in Sudan could hurt exports and exert further pressure on the balance of payments.

Keywords:
monetary policy stance; core inflation; budget support; financing needs; IMF obligation; Credit; Imports; International reserves; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Nigeria’s Tax Revenue Mobilization: Lessons from Successful Revenue Reform Episodes: Nigeria
Il Jung
This paper has identified four episodes of large and sustained revenue mobilizations in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and found common lessons from the episodes. Although there is no one-size-fits-all strategy, we can find a tax reform path suitable to Nigeria’s circumstances. Based on these cross-country experiences, this paper recommends: (i) implementing a package reform of tax administration and tax policy measures; (ii) focusing mainly on indirect tax (VAT and excise) reforms and tax incentive rationalizations; (iii) undertaking tax administration measures for improving compliance by strengthening taxpayer segmentation and automation; and (iv) launching social dialogue with key stakeholders as well as high-level political commitment.
Keywords:
undertaking tax administration; tax revenue mobilization; package reform; Nigeria's tax reform; tax incentive rationalization; Excises; Value-added tax; Consumption taxes; Tax administration core functions; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Central Bank Transparency Code Review
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper on Uganda discusses Central Bank Transparency Code Review. The Bank of Uganda (BOU) is implementing transparency practices that are broadly aligned with the good practices for central banks. The BOU continues to improve communication of its monetary policy framework in a transparent manner, but there is room to enhance transparency by disclosing policy deliberations. The BOU has improved macroprudential policies and the analytical framework aimed at mitigating systemic risks, but decisions leading to macroprudential actions are not explained. The anti-corruption legal framework in Uganda applies to the BOU, however no details are disclosed in the public domain as to how it is applied and enforced with respect to the BOU. The BOU should consider compiling and developing a policy on confidentiality that includes the reasons underlying the choices it has made on disclosure or nondisclosure. The mission found that BOU’s transparency practices largely conform to various dimensions of transparency as information is disseminated through several channels.
Keywords:
BOU website; BOU communications policy; transparency practice; BOU endeavor; BOU transparency; BOU department; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Financial sector stability; Revenue administration transparency and accountability; Macroprudential policy; International reserves; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nigeria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents stylized facts about food insecurity in Nigeria, investigates its drivers in a cross-country setting, and assesses the role of policies. The paper describes regional aspects of Nigeria’s food insecurity and compares the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 and the war in Ukraine on food security in Nigeria and other countries. It also provides an overview of agricultural production and consumption in Nigeria. The paper investigates the drivers of food security using an empirical cross-country framework including demand, supply, and price factors, and offers thoughts on policies to improve agricultural yields and production. The important role of inputs is evident in the policy experience of comparator countries. Nigeria has achieved a substantial increase in agricultural production associated with its policies but some have been less successful. Import dependency for key staples has not fallen and the cost of these agricultural products remains driven by international prices. Further, central bank credit to the agricultural sector has not succeeded in increasing production beyond the stimulus of high rainfall and high food prices.
Keywords:
EIU FOOD INSECURITY index; World wheat price inflation; tax revenue mobilization; food supply; fuel subsidy reform; food price inflation; Mobile banking; Financial inclusion; Food security; Excises; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Central Bank Transparency Code Review
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

This paper on Uganda discusses Central Bank Transparency Code Review. The Bank of Uganda (BOU) is implementing transparency practices that are broadly aligned with the good practices for central banks. The BOU continues to improve communication of its monetary policy framework in a transparent manner, but there is room to enhance transparency by disclosing policy deliberations. The BOU has improved macroprudential policies and the analytical framework aimed at mitigating systemic risks, but decisions leading to macroprudential actions are not explained. The anti-corruption legal framework in Uganda applies to the BOU, however no details are disclosed in the public domain as to how it is applied and enforced with respect to the BOU. The BOU should consider compiling and developing a policy on confidentiality that includes the reasons underlying the choices it has made on disclosure or nondisclosure. The mission found that BOU’s transparency practices largely conform to various dimensions of transparency as information is disseminated through several channels.

Keywords:
BOU website; BOU disclosure; communications policy; transparency practice; BOU communication; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Revenue administration transparency and accountability