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Teresa R Curristine
,
Isabell Adenauer
,
Virginia Alonso-Albarran
,
John Grinyer
,
Koon Hui Tee
,
Claude P Wendling
, and
Delphine Moretti
This Note provides guidance on developing and implementing a medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF). MTFFs aim to promote fiscal discipline and sustainability, transparency, and better-informed fiscal decisions. An MTFF comprises a set of institutional arrangements for prioritizing, presenting, reporting, and managing fiscal aggregates - revenue, expenditure, balance, and debt - generally over a three-to-five-year period. It incorporates a fiscal strategy, medium-term projections of key macroeconomic variables and fiscal aggregates, and ceilings on total expenditure to guide subsequent annual budgets. By introducing a medium-term perspective into fiscal and budgetary decision making, MTFFs provide a clearer understanding of the impact, trade-offs, and risks of policy choices. MTFFs contribute to enhancing transparency and accountability by communicating the government’s medium-term fiscal goals, policies, and fiscal performance. Ultimately, clarity on medium-term fiscal plans and on their effective implementation can bolster confidence in the government’s ability to manage its finances prudently and competently. In addition to providing guidance on how to design an MTFF and the institutional and technical arrangements needed to support implementation, the Note discusses key challenges and presents country examples from across the globe by income group and concludes with lessons learned.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines tax policy and administrative changes in Eastern African Community (EAC) countries with a view to benchmark Kenya’s experience and draw lessons for future tax reforms. Using granular data from a new IMF database on tax measures announced during 1988–2022, it concludes that EAC policymakers frequently changed their tax system and administrations by announcing tax packages that typically consisted of measures to narrow the tax base and strengthen tax administrative practices. Kenya appeared to be one of the EAC countries that most frequently announced and introduced such changes, which might have played a significant role in explaining the reduction in the tax-to-gross domestic product ratio experienced by the country since 2014. The conclusions of this note are subject to caveats, as the frequency of tax measures is not an indicator of the actual revenue impact of such measures. Looking at the frequency of changes, however, can help identify reform episodes providing a sense of their duration and comprehensiveness.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Uganda’s Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, the Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of a Performance Criterion and the Financing Assurance Review. The program aims to support the near-term response to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and boost inclusive private sector-led long-term growth. Reforms focus on creating fiscal space for priority social spending, preserving debt sustainability, strengthening governance and reducing corruption, and enhancing the monetary and financial sector frameworks. The Ugandan economy is projected to grow by 5.5 percent in FY 22/23 and 6 percent in FY 23/24. Inflation has been declining and is expected to reach the Bank of Uganda’s medium-term target of 5% core inflation by end-2023. A stronger tightening of global financial conditions would constrain the availability of syndicated loans and weigh on financial sector stability. Fiscal consolidation and tight monetary policy remain essential to keep debt on a sustainable path. Structural reforms will need to continue focusing on strengthening governance and anticorruption frameworks, enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, and boosting financial inclusion.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Uganda has achieved significant improvements in public investment management over the last few years. The new IMF Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) report shows that Uganda is well ahead of its comparators in many aspects of public investment management, in particular in institutional design. A number of important measures have been undertaken, including giving the Development Committee a strong role as a gatekeeper for new investment proposals, the establishment of the Projects Analysis and Public Investment Department, and development of guidelines and manuals to improve the quality of project preparation and appraisal. Many reforms are fairly recent and are not fully institutionalized, so there is a clear need to continue and to further strengthen public investment management in Uganda. The IMF and other development partners are active partners to the government in pursuing these reforms.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance report discusses options to revamp the 2013 Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA), taking into account the challenges posed by the current context in Maldives. The government has not met the FRA’s numerical targets for fiscal deficits and public debt. In order to ensure fiscal sustainability and enhance transparency, the Maldivian authorities are committed to introducing a new FRA in 2021. The Government needs firm and credible targets for debt and fiscal deficits in its debt-reduction efforts; however, past experiences of noncompliance with the numerical fiscal rules has undermined its credibility. A principles-based approach, accompanied by strong accountability requirements, would provide the authorities with the flexibility to respond to adverse macroeconomic developments. The new FRA would clearly define the specific roles of Parliament and the Auditor General in the fiscal responsibility framework. This report suggests enhancing fiscal oversight by strengthening the role of Parliament and the Auditor General. The report also identifies several areas of public financial management that should be addressed in other PFM laws for the successful implementation of the new FRA.
Mr. Ian Lienert
This paper examines the institutional arrangements of the macro-fiscal function in 16 African countries. Most ministries of finance (MoFs) have established a macro-fiscal department or unit, but their functions, size, structure and outputs vary considerably. Based on a survey, we present data on staff size, functional scope and the forecasting performance of macro-fiscal departments and identify common challenges in the countries reviewed. Some MoFs perform many macro-fiscal functions, but actions of various kinds are needed to strengthen their macro-fiscal departments. This paper provides some guidance for policy-makers in the region for enhancing the quality and scope of macro-fiscal outputs.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Mission has been undertaken to support the Bank of South Sudan (BSS) in improving external sector statistics (ESS). The recommendations made during the 2018 mission for the recording of oil exports and transactions with Sudan under the Transitional Financial Agreement were implemented by the BSS. The mission worked toward enhancing the inter-agency cooperation by meeting with selected public sector bodies, providing them with an overview of the balance of payments and the data that the BSS will request from them. Before the end of the mission, requested data from one of the entities, the Civil Aviation Authority was provided. A work program was developed to conduct a visitor expenditure survey and a preliminary International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity template was submitted to IMF’s Statistics Department for review. In order to support progress in the various work areas, the mission recommended a detailed one-year action plan, with the several priority recommendations carrying weight to make headway in improving ESS reliability.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE) assesses the quality of fiscal reporting in Kenya against the principles set out in the Fiscal Transparency Code. Kenya has experienced a lot of structural and economic changes since 2014. One of the key objectives of this FTE is to estimate Kenya’s balance sheet, and to cover as many as possible of the entities in the public sector. The coverage of Kenya’s reporting of fiscal statistics has improved considerably. The report discusses that Kenya continues to perform well in the overall transparency of its fiscal forecasting and budgeting practices (Pillar II of the Code), which is based on a strong legal framework. It does so against a backdrop of significant ongoing reforms, including far-reaching fiscal devolution to counties, and the introduction of performance-based budgeting. A recent important change in the law is expected to synchronize the submission and approval of the government’s spending proposals and the tax measures in the Finance Bill. The recommendations set out under each of the pillars of this report aim to address several challenges. The report also encourages the authorities to continue with the implementation of the recommendations set out in the 2014 report, on which good or satisfactory progress has been made in about half the cases.