Africa > Uganda

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  • National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General x
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Hites Ahir
,
Hendre Garbers
,
Mattia Coppo
,
Mr. Giovanni Melina
,
Mr. Futoshi Narita
,
Ms. Filiz D Unsal
,
Vivian Malta
,
Xin Tang
,
Daniel Gurara
,
Luis-Felipe Zanna
,
Linda G. Venable
,
Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
, and
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
Despite strong economic growth since 2000, many low-income countries (LICs) still face numerous macroeconomic challenges, even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the deceleration in real GDP growth during the 2008 global financial crisis, LICs on average saw 4.5 percent of real GDP growth during 2000 to 2014, making progress in economic convergence toward higher-income countries. However, the commodity price collapse in 2014–15 hit many commodity-exporting LICs and highlighted their vulnerabilities due to the limited extent of economic diversification. Furthermore, LICs are currently facing a crisis like no other—COVID-19, which requires careful policymaking to save lives and livelihoods in LICs, informed by policy debate and thoughtful research tailored to the COVID-19 situation. There are also other challenges beyond COVID-19, such as climate change, high levels of public debt burdens, and persistent structural issues.
Mr. Ian Lienert
This paper examines the institutional arrangements of the macro-fiscal function in 16 African countries. Most ministries of finance (MoFs) have established a macro-fiscal department or unit, but their functions, size, structure and outputs vary considerably. Based on a survey, we present data on staff size, functional scope and the forecasting performance of macro-fiscal departments and identify common challenges in the countries reviewed. Some MoFs perform many macro-fiscal functions, but actions of various kinds are needed to strengthen their macro-fiscal departments. This paper provides some guidance for policy-makers in the region for enhancing the quality and scope of macro-fiscal outputs.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance report proposes a roadmap for completing the process of drafting and adopting an Integrated Legal Framework for Public Financial Management (PFM) in Zambia. The legal framework for PFM in Zambia is fragmented, and much of it is outdated. The government has prioritized a revision of the existing legal framework for PFM and national development planning. This revision will permit a range of important PFM reforms that are ongoing or planned to be incorporated within the legal framework. An updated legal framework would also permit other important improvements in current practices to be incorporated.
Ezequiel Cabezon
and
Mr. Tej Prakash
This paper examines, in a formal econometric framework, the linkages between public financial management and fiscal outcomes in sub-Saharan African countries. Similar analyses have been done for Latin America, Europe, and the United States, but none in the context of low-income countries. Using public financial management indicators, as measured in two recent assessments related to the Heavily-Indebted Poor Countries Initiative, this study shows that improving public financial management leads to better fiscal outcomes, as measured by the overall fiscal balance and external debt levels, after controlling for other characteristics that might alter fiscal outcomes.
International Monetary Fund
This report focuses on IMF Technical Assistance Evaluation—Public Expenditure Management (PEM) Reform in Selected African Countries. Most of the countries examined were colonies of the United Kingdom, inheriting similar and relatively simple budget systems based on an interpretation of the “Westminster model” around the time of independence. Country reviews suggest that PEM problems are widespread and that there are few areas in the PEM systems of the countries covered that do not require strengthening in some way.
Mr. Ian Lienert
This paper assesses the advantages and disadvantages of the French and British public expenditure management systems as used in Africa. The main differences are in budget execution and government accounting. In both francophone and anglophone Africa, there are common weaknesses in the application of the inherited systems, which appear to dominate any distinct features of the individual systems. Desirable reforms in both systems will only be successful if they are accompanied by measures that enhance the accountability of those who operate the systems, including enforcing the rules embodied in existing or reformed regulatory frameworks.
Mr. Ian Lienert
and
Mr. Feridoun Sarraf
This paper examines the merits of the British budget management system that was inherited in Anglophone African countries and which has changed substantially in the United Kingdom since the 1960s. It considers whether the disappointing budgetary performance in Africa is due to weaknesses in the inherited British system, other external influences, or domestic developments. It finds that all three factors have played a role in the widespread problems with budget management systems. Reforms in institutional arrangements are needed, especially in budget execution. Technical reforms will be ineffective unless there are concomitant changes to enhance accountability, improve governance, and increase compliance.
Mr. Steven A Barnett
This paper empirically investigates the relationship between privatization and measures of fiscal and macroeconomic performance. One of the main findings is that privatization proceeds transferred to the budget tend to be saved. Specifically, they are largely used to reduce domestic financing, with little evidence that they are used to finance a larger deficit. However, by construction, this part of the study is restricted to privatization proceeds transferred to the budget, leaving open the question of what happens to those proceeds not transferred to the budget. The other main finding is that total privatization (as opposed to just the proceeds transferred to the budget) is correlated with an improvement in macroeconomic performance as manifested in higher real GDP growth and lower unemployment. However, this result needs to be interpreted cautiously as the evidence is not sufficient to establish causality.