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International Monetary Fund
and
World Bank
The outlook for Low-Income Countries (LICs) is gradually improving, but they face persistent macroeconomic vulnerabilities, including liquidity challenges due to high debt service. There is significant heterogeneity among LICs: the poorest and most fragile countries have faced deep scarring from the pandemic, while those with diversified economies and Frontier Markets are faring better. Achieving inclusive growth and building resilience are essential for LICs to converge with more advanced economies and meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Building resilience will also be critical in the context of a more shock-prone world. This requires both decisive domestic actions, including expanding and better targeting Social Safety Nets (SSNs), and substantial external support, including adequate financing, policy advice, capacity development and, where needed, debt relief. The Fund is further stepping up its support through targeted policy advice, capacity building, and financing.
Zixuan Huang
,
Amina Lahreche
,
Mika Saito
, and
Ursula Wiriadinata
E-money development has important yet theoretically ambiguous consequences for monetary policy transmission, because nonbank deposit-taking e-money issuers (EMIs) (e.g., mobile network operators) can either complement or substitute banks. Case studies of e-money regulations point to complementarity of EMIs with banks, implying that the development of e-money could deepen financial intermediation and strengthen monetary policy transmission. The issue is further explored with panel data, on both monthly (covering 21 countries) and annual (covering 47 countries) frequencies, over 2001 to 2019. We use a two-way fixed effect estimator to estimate the causal effects of e-money development on monetary policy transmission. We find that e-money development has accompanied stronger monetary policy transmission (measured by the responsiveness of interest rates to the policy rate), growth in bank deposits and credit, and efficiency gains in financial intermediation (measured by the lending-to-deposit rate spread). Evidence is more pronounced in countries where e-money development takes off in a context of limited financial inclusion. This paper highlights the potential benefits of e-money development in strengthening monetary policy transmission, especially in countries with limited financial inclusion.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Uganda’s Fifth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Economic recovery continues to gain strength following a rapid decline in inflation, favorable agriculture and robust industrial and services activity. Fiscal financing and foreign portfolio flows are facing headwinds amid tight global financial conditions and the passage of the Anti-Homosexuality Act in May 2023. The authorities are implementing fiscal consolidation to contain vulnerabilities, maintaining a moderately tight monetary stance in the face of upside risks to inflation and undertaking reforms to improve governance and reduce corruption. All September 2023 quantitative performance criteria were met, as well as most June 2023 indicative targets (ITs). Preliminary data suggest that the December 2023 IT for net credit to government and inflation were met but the IT for net international reserves was missed. Four out of seven structural benchmarks for the current review were met on or before test dates, and one was completed with a delay.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Uganda has committed to an ambitious climate change mitigation and adaption agenda. To achieve this, the country has developed a sound framework to enhance climate change sensitivity across public financial and public investment management. The framework clearly allocates responsibilities, enhances coordination, and requires the identification of climate expenses in the budget documentation. However, gaps remain in some key regulations, primarily on project appraisal, and some initiatives are in early stages of implementation and need further guidance and training. The Climate Public Investment Management Assessment proposes reforms across multiple areas, underscoring as priority areas project appraisal and selection, and budgeting and portfolio management.
Arturo Navarro
,
Matthew K Quillinan
,
Jyoti Rahman
,
Natalia Salazar
,
Eivind Tandberg
, and
Tjeerd Tim
Uganda has committed to an ambitious climate change mitigation and adaption agenda. To achieve this, the country has developed a sound framework to enhance climate change sensitivity across public financial and public investment management. The framework clearly allocates responsibilities, enhances coordination, and requires the identification of climate expenses in the budget documentation. However, gaps remain in some key regulations, primarily on project appraisal, and some initiatives are in early stages of implementation and need further guidance and training. The Climate Public Investment Management Assessment proposes reforms across multiple areas, underscoring as priority areas project appraisal and selection, and budgeting and portfolio management.