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Africa > Uganda

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable
Omer Faruk Akbal
,
Mr. Seung M Choi
,
Mr. Futoshi Narita
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.
Keywords:
Developing economies; fragile and conflict-affected states; GDP; low-income countries; nowcasting; sub-Saharan Africa; GDP statistic; panel Nowcasting; data availability; growth data; annex II; data availablity; Commodity prices; Purchasing power parity; Data collection; Export fluctuations; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Brandon Buell
,
Reda Cherif
,
Carissa Chen
,
Jiawen Tang
, and
Nils Wendt
The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the critical need for detailed, timely information on its evolving economic impacts, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where data availability and lack of generalizable nowcasting methodologies limit efforts for coordinated policy responses. This paper presents a suite of high frequency and granular country-level indicator tools that can be used to nowcast GDP and track changes in economic activity for countries in SSA. We make two main contributions: (1) demonstration of the predictive power of alternative data variables such as Google search trends and mobile payments, and (2) implementation of two types of modelling methodologies, machine learning and parametric factor models, that have flexibility to incorporate mixed-frequency data variables. We present nowcast results for 2019Q4 and 2020Q1 GDP for Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Ghana, and argue that our factor model methodology can be generalized to nowcast and forecast GDP for other SSA countries with limited data availability and shorter timeframes.
Keywords:
model prediction; quantile plot; ML model; GDP YoY; data variable; YoY percent change; Factor models; Machine learning; Time series analysis; Spot exchange rates; Mobile banking; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics
IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics
Annual Report 2018
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Abstract

The 2018 Annual Report of the IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics provides an overview of trends in global balance of payments statistics.

Keywords:
BY; BOP; term id; work program; term; IMF Committee; IE coverage; research agenda
Cover IMF Working Papers
Using Administrative Data to Enhance Policymaking in Developing Countries: Tax Data and the National Accounts
Lisbeth Rivas
and
Mr. Joe Crowley
Statistical agencies worldwide are increasingly turning to new data sources, including administrative data, to improve statistical coverage. Administrative data can significantly enhance the quality of national statistics and produce synergies with tax administration and other government agencies, supporting better decision making, policy advice, and economic performance. Compared to economic censuses and business surveys, administrative data are less burdensome to collect and produce more timely, detailed, and accurate data with better coverage. This paper specifically explores the use of value added tax and income tax records to enhance the compilation of national accounts statistics.
Keywords:
WP; enterprise; information; tax; tax data; reporting burden; Administrative Data; National Accounts; Value Added Tax; tax authorities; tax authority; pay as you earn; Value-added tax; Personal income; Income and capital gains taxes; Data collection; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Technical Assistance Report-Initiating the Stock-Taking of the Public Investment Program
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the initiation of the stock-taking of the public investment program in Uganda. This stock-taking will provide a basis for better budgeting by providing information on the existing multi-year project commitments, and the incremental recurrent costs for operation and maintenance of the assets delivered. It will also identify a basic information structure for each project and subsequently collect a data baseline, providing a foundation for more robust project monitoring. It will aid the management of the overall project portfolio. By identifying the scale of existing multi-annual commitments, it will avoid adding projects to the investment pipeline, which cannot be financed under the Medium Term Expenditure Framework.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; PIP information; project data need; information reliability; input restriction; project template; project information; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Public investment spending; Budget planning and preparation; Data collection; Stocks
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes: Data Module, Response by the Authorities, and Detailed Assessment Using the Data Quality Assessment Framework
International Monetary Fund
This Report on the Observance of Standards And Codes (ROSC) on data module for Uganda provides an assessment of Uganda’s macroeconomic statistics against the recommendations of the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) complemented by an assessment of data quality based on the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework. This ROSC data module contains the main observations covering four macroeconomic data sets, namely national accounts, the consumer price index (CPI), government finance statistics (GFS), and balance of payments (BOP). It also provides an overview of the dissemination practices compared with the GDDS.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; data; central government; sc; balance of payments statistics; UNHS result; transactions report; MFPED web site; position return; hard copy; UBOS to MFPED; GFS data; Balance of payments statistics; Government finance statistics; Data collection; Data processing; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Africa; Africa
Cover Can the Poor Influence Policy? Participatory Poverty Assessments in the Developing World
Can the Poor Influence Policy? Participatory Poverty Assessments in the Developing World
Ms. Caroline M Kende-Robb

Abstract

The second edition of this book outline show to include the poor using the Participatory Poverty Assessment (PPA) method. This method was developed by the World Bank in partnerships with NGOs, governments, and academic institutions, and has been implemented in over 60 countries worldwide duringthe last decade. This book also draws on new PPA case examples. Joint publication with the World Bank.

Keywords:
BOOK; poverty assessment; policy; government; country; poverty analysis; research team; PPA result; government poverty agency; PPA impact; Poverty reduction; Poverty reduction strategy; Poverty reduction and development; Budget planning and preparation; Africa; Eastern Europe; East Asia