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Africa > Uganda

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable
Omer Faruk Akbal
,
Mr. Seung M Choi
,
Mr. Futoshi Narita
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.
Keywords:
Developing economies; fragile and conflict-affected states; GDP; low-income countries; nowcasting; sub-Saharan Africa; GDP statistic; panel Nowcasting; data availability; growth data; annex II; data availablity; Commodity prices; Purchasing power parity; Data collection; Export fluctuations; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Front Matter
Brandon Buell
,
Reda Cherif
,
Carissa Chen
,
Jiawen Tang
, and
Nils Wendt
Keywords:
model prediction; table of table; Kenya GDP; Google search trend; Google trend search term; Factor models; Time series analysis; Machine learning; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Impact of COVID-19: Nowcasting and Big Data to Track Economic Activity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Brandon Buell
,
Reda Cherif
,
Carissa Chen
,
Jiawen Tang
, and
Nils Wendt
The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the critical need for detailed, timely information on its evolving economic impacts, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where data availability and lack of generalizable nowcasting methodologies limit efforts for coordinated policy responses. This paper presents a suite of high frequency and granular country-level indicator tools that can be used to nowcast GDP and track changes in economic activity for countries in SSA. We make two main contributions: (1) demonstration of the predictive power of alternative data variables such as Google search trends and mobile payments, and (2) implementation of two types of modelling methodologies, machine learning and parametric factor models, that have flexibility to incorporate mixed-frequency data variables. We present nowcast results for 2019Q4 and 2020Q1 GDP for Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Ghana, and argue that our factor model methodology can be generalized to nowcast and forecast GDP for other SSA countries with limited data availability and shorter timeframes.
Keywords:
model prediction; quantile plot; ML model; GDP YoY; data variable; YoY percent change; Factor models; Machine learning; Time series analysis; Spot exchange rates; Mobile banking; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Finance & Development
Front Matter
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department

FINANCE AND DEVELOPMENT

Keywords:
FD; F&D; data bias; data economy; big data analytics; Afordable internet access; location data; digital ID; expansionary monetary policy; community currency; government policy; COVID-19; Cyber risk; Migration; Financial inclusion; Global; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Asia and Pacific; public goods; widening inequality; inflation revival; policymaking benchmark; pandemic's disruption; Central Bank digital currencies; Technological innovation
Cover Finance & Development
The Global Cyber Threat
Cyber threats to the financial system are growing, and the global community must cooperate to protect it
Tim Maurer
and
Arthur Nelson

In February 2016, hackers targeted the central bank of Bangladesh and exploited vulnerabilities in SWIFT, the global financial system’s main electronic payment messaging system, trying to steal $1 billion. While most transactions were blocked, $101 million still disappeared. The heist was a wake-up call for the finance world that systemic cyber risks in the financial system had been severely underestimated.

Keywords:
FD; F&D; data bias; data economy; big data analytics; Afordable internet access; location data; digital ID; expansionary monetary policy; community currency; government policy; COVID-19; Cyber risk; Migration; Financial inclusion; Global; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Asia and Pacific; financial services firm; technology company; world s government; global financial system fuel risk; government actor; Financial sector; Financial sector stability
Cover IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics
IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics
Annual Report 2018
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

Abstract

The 2018 Annual Report of the IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics provides an overview of trends in global balance of payments statistics.

Keywords:
BY; BOP; term id; work program; term; IMF Committee; IE coverage; research agenda
Cover IMF Working Papers
Using Administrative Data to Enhance Policymaking in Developing Countries: Tax Data and the National Accounts
Lisbeth Rivas
and
Mr. Joe Crowley
Statistical agencies worldwide are increasingly turning to new data sources, including administrative data, to improve statistical coverage. Administrative data can significantly enhance the quality of national statistics and produce synergies with tax administration and other government agencies, supporting better decision making, policy advice, and economic performance. Compared to economic censuses and business surveys, administrative data are less burdensome to collect and produce more timely, detailed, and accurate data with better coverage. This paper specifically explores the use of value added tax and income tax records to enhance the compilation of national accounts statistics.
Keywords:
WP; enterprise; information; tax; tax data; reporting burden; Administrative Data; National Accounts; Value Added Tax; tax authorities; tax authority; pay as you earn; Value-added tax; Personal income; Income and capital gains taxes; Data collection; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Technical Assistance Report-Initiating the Stock-Taking of the Public Investment Program
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses the initiation of the stock-taking of the public investment program in Uganda. This stock-taking will provide a basis for better budgeting by providing information on the existing multi-year project commitments, and the incremental recurrent costs for operation and maintenance of the assets delivered. It will also identify a basic information structure for each project and subsequently collect a data baseline, providing a foundation for more robust project monitoring. It will aid the management of the overall project portfolio. By identifying the scale of existing multi-annual commitments, it will avoid adding projects to the investment pipeline, which cannot be financed under the Medium Term Expenditure Framework.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; PIP information; project data need; information reliability; input restriction; project template; project information; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Public investment spending; Budget planning and preparation; Data collection; Stocks
Cover Finance & Development
The Dark Side of Technology: The benefits of the digital age are tempered by the risks

Finance and Development, September 2016

Keywords:
FD; F&D; bank; economy; drive-through teller; firm; emerging market; social media; toll cybercrime; market-intelligence firm; global financial system; JPMorgan Chase; Emerging technologies; Social networks; Cyber risk; Securities; Global
Cover Finance & Development
Straight Talk: Knowledge as a Public Good - The IMF is using technology to boost understanding of economic policy issues
Ms. Sharmini Coorey

Finance and Development, September 2016

Keywords:
FD; F&D; bank; economy; drive-through teller; firm; emerging market; IMF expert; IMF training; capacity building work; IMF's Institute for Capacity Development; classroom training; Social networks; Information systems and platforms; Debt sustainability analysis; Technology transfer; Global