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Africa > Uganda

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that Uganda has navigated the post pandemic recovery well due to sound macroeconomic policies. The economic recovery is strengthening with low inflation, favorable agricultural production, and strong industrial and services activity. While public debt is sustainable, low tax revenues constrain Uganda’s fiscal policy space. Strengthening domestic revenue mobilization and budgetary and cash management practices are key to securing a durable fiscal space. The Bank of Uganda’s tight monetary policy stance has helped anchor inflation expectations and counter external sector pressures. Going forward, monetary policy should remain data driven to ensure price stability and further financial deepening. Continued flexibility of the exchange rate is important to build up adequate foreign exchange reserves. Uganda should continue its efforts to create fiscal space through revenue mobilization and better expenditure discipline, vigilant monetary policy, and exchange rate flexibility, using future oil revenue to address growth impediments and improve social development while advancing governance reform and financial inclusion. Addressing governance deficiencies and regulatory burdens and enhancing regional trade integration are critical to unlocking Uganda’s growth potential.
Keywords:
IMF staff calculation; NDP IV; inflation expectation; fiscal consolidation effort; core inflation; data dependent; headline inflation; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Debt sustainability; Global; Africa; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

We analyze macro-financial linkages in Uganda using the “from-whom-to-whom” balance sheet approach (BSA) framework.2 While the banking sector, which dominates the Ugandan financial system, remains fundamentally sound, there are pockets of vulnerabilities resulting from the growing sovereign-bank nexus and cross-border exposures of the NFC sector which require close vigilance.
Keywords:
sovereign-bank nexus; sector credit; bank deposits-to-GDP; government-bank nexus; bank Deposits-to-GDP; Interest payments; Government debt management; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Staff Report for the 2024 Article IV Consultation—Debt Sustainability Analysis
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

UGANDA
Keywords:
GDP deflator; localcurrency government securities; Ugandan authorities; authorities transition; short-term debt; Contingent liabilities; Debt sustainability analysis; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Staff Report for the 2024 Article IV Consultation—Informational Annex
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

UGANDA
Keywords:
Rebasing construction price indices; oil resource; market Risk regulation; balance sheet account statistics; SDR million; Government finance statistics; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Exchange rate arrangements; Export fluctuations
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

1. The Ugandan economy continues to strengthen amidst increased downside risks. While the post-pandemic economic recovery has broadened, the passing of the Anti-Homosexuality Act (AHA) in May 2023, currently under review by the Constitutional Court following legal challenges, has complicated the external financing landscape. In particular, the World Bank (WB) has suspended new loans and put in place safeguard measures to ensure non-discrimination, that are likely to impact the pace of implementation of current projects (Box 1). More recently, the U.S. Government issued a business advisory cautioning private investors against financial and reputational risks stemming from corruption and human rights restrictions in Uganda and removed Uganda from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). These actions have increased downside risks, including for external financing.

Keywords:
cash management; IMF staff calculation; headline inflation; upside inflation risk; IMF obligation
Cover IMF Working Papers
Front Matter
Felix F. Simione
and
Tara S Muehlschlegel
Keywords:
selected indicator; money usage; Mobile banking; Remittances; Financial inclusion; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Mobile Money, Perception about Cash, and Financial Inclusion: Learning from Uganda’s Micro-Level Data
Felix F. Simione
and
Tara S Muehlschlegel
Will mobile money render cash less dominant over time in Africa? Can it promote financial inclusion? We shed light on these questions by exploring individual-level and nationally representative survey data for Uganda, a country in a region that pioneered mobile money in the world. We use the Propensity Score Matching method to robustly compare mobile money users and non-users across a range of indicators that capture individuals’ perceptions about cash, and the extent to which they remit, save, and borrow money. We present the first evidence that mobile money users, compared to non-users, are more likely to perceive cash as risky and less likely to prefer carrying large amounts of cash. We also confirm that mobile money users are more likely to receive and send remittances, save, and borrow. They also save and borrow larger amounts.
Keywords:
Developing Country; Innovation; Digital Divide; money usage; selected indicator; Propensity Score Matching method; usage treatment; deposit balance; Mobile banking; Remittances; Financial inclusion; Digital financial services; Consumer credit; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable
Omer Faruk Akbal
,
Mr. Seung M Choi
,
Mr. Futoshi Narita
, and
Jiaxiong Yao
Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.
Keywords:
Developing economies; fragile and conflict-affected states; GDP; low-income countries; nowcasting; sub-Saharan Africa; GDP statistic; panel Nowcasting; data availability; growth data; annex II; data availablity; Commodity prices; Purchasing power parity; Data collection; Export fluctuations; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of a Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Uganda’s Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, the Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of a Performance Criterion and the Financing Assurance Review. The program aims to support the near-term response to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and boost inclusive private sector-led long-term growth. Reforms focus on creating fiscal space for priority social spending, preserving debt sustainability, strengthening governance and reducing corruption, and enhancing the monetary and financial sector frameworks. The Ugandan economy is projected to grow by 5.5 percent in FY 22/23 and 6 percent in FY 23/24. Inflation has been declining and is expected to reach the Bank of Uganda’s medium-term target of 5% core inflation by end-2023. A stronger tightening of global financial conditions would constrain the availability of syndicated loans and weigh on financial sector stability. Fiscal consolidation and tight monetary policy remain essential to keep debt on a sustainable path. Structural reforms will need to continue focusing on strengthening governance and anticorruption frameworks, enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, and boosting financial inclusion.
Keywords:
FX reserves-financed government import; core inflation; steadfast adherence; excise duty regime; monetary policy implementation; Credit; Debt sustainability; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of a Performance Criterion—Debt Sustainability Analysis
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

UGANDA

Keywords:
mitigating debt risk; exports threshold; burden indicator; service-to-exports ratio; dynamics equation; Contingent liabilities; Debt service ratios; Global