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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses that Uganda has made impressive development gains and achieved the Millennium Development Goal on halving poverty ahead of schedule. However, going forward, Uganda must create over 600,000 jobs per year to keep up with its growing population, while making further progress on poverty reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals. The authorities’ development strategy centers on infrastructure and a nascent oil sector. If investments proceed as planned, growth could range between 6 and 7 percent over the next five years. It is important to adopt an effective fiscal anchor and strengthen the budget process to become more binding for fiscal outcomes. It is also recommended to support human capital development and make growth more inclusive by improving the efficiency of public services and providing adequate budget allocations for social sectors. The consultation also suggests strengthening implementation and institutions of the governance and anti-corruption framework. Ensure that the Anti-Money Laundering/Countering the Financing of Terrorism regime is brought in line with international standards.
Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne
and
Mr. Mumtaz Hussain
La réforme des subventions énergétiques est un problème important et difficile pour les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne. Un nombre relativement important d’études théoriques et empiriques ont été consacrées à cette question. Si ce rapport s’inspire de ces études, il examine toutefois plus précisément la situation des pays d’Afrique subsaharienne de manière à répondre aux questions suivantes: pourquoi est-il important de réduire les subventions énergétiques? Quelles sont les difficultés que pose la réforme des subventions énergétiques? Quel est le meilleur moyen de procéder à une telle réforme? Ce rapport se fonde sur diverses sources d’information sur les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne et notamment des évaluations quantitatives, des enquêtes et des études de cas particulières (mais standardisées).
Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne
and
Mr. Mumtaz Hussain
The reform of energy subsidies is an important but challenging issue for sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. There is a relatively large theoretical and empirical literature on this issue. While this paper relies on that literature, too, it tailors its discussion to SSA countries to respond to the following questions: Why it is important to reduce energy subsidies? What are the difficulties involved in energy subsidy reform? How best can a subsidy reform be implemented? This paper uses various sources of information on SSA countries: quantitative assessments, surveys, and individual (but standardized) case studies.
International Monetary Fund
This supplement presents country case studies reviewing energy subsidy reform experiences, which are the basis for the reform lessons identified in the main paper. The selection of countries for the case studies reflects the availability of data and of previously documented evidence on country-specific reforms. The 22 country case studies were also chosen to provide cases from all regions and a mix of outcomes from reform. The studies cover 19 countries, including seven from sub-Saharan Africa, two in developing Asia, three in the Middle East and North Africa, four in Latin America and the Caribbean, and three in Central and Eastern Europe and the CIS. The case studies are organized by energy product, with 14 studies of the reform of petroleum product subsidies, seven studies of the reform of electricity subsidies, and a case study of subsidy reform for coal. The larger number of studies on fuel subsidies reflects the wider availability of data and past studies for these reforms. The structure of each case study is similar, with each one providing the context of the reform and a description of the reforms; discussion of the impact of the reform on energy prices or subsidies and its success or failure; mitigating measures that were implemented in an attempt to generate public support for the reform and offset adverse effects on the poor; and, finally, identification of lessons for designing reforms.
International Monetary Fund
Economic growth has recovered, but higher food and fuel prices have sparked a sharp rise in inflation. Monetary policy has been tightened to contain core inflation and effects of the food and fuel price shocks. The government has allowed for scaling up of infrastructure investment spending. The programmed adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies will help put Uganda on a more sustainable medium-term trajectory. Eliminating tax exemptions and incentives will address the revenue gap. The planned oil revenue management framework is encouraging.
Jie Yang
and
Dan Nyberg
Despite substantial debt relief to HIPC Initiative completion point countries, long-term debt sustainability remains a challenge. This paper examines a number of structural factors affecting external debt sustainability. It shows that in HIPC completion point countries (i) the export base broadly remains narrow; (ii) fiscal revenue mobilization lags behind in some countries; and (iii) policy and institutional frameworks are still relatively weak. Achieving and maintaining longterm debt sustainability in completion point countries will require continued structural reforms, timely donor support, and close monitoring of new non-concessional borrowing.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa's prospects have deteriorated somewhat and the risks have increased, according to this report. Growth in the region is projected to dip to 6 percent in 2008 and 2009. The fall is due mainly to the global food and fuel price shock, which has weighed particularly on growth in oil-importing countries, and to the global financial market turmoil, which has slowed global growth and demand for Africa's exports. Inflation is expected to rise to 12 percent in 2008, mainly on account of the food and fuel price shock. As a result of rising prices, particularly of food, poverty may well be on the increase in 2008. In 2009, inflation should ease to 10 percent, helped by recent commodity price declines. There are significant risks to the outlook related to a potentially deeper and longer period of global financial turmoil and resulting slowdown in global activity, and substantial uncertainty concerning commodity prices.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The region's prospects continue to be promising, but global developments pose increased risks to the outlook. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa should again average about 6½ percent in 2008 with oil exporters leading the way; meanwhile, growth in oil importers is expected to taper off, though only modestly. With food and energy prices still rising, inflation is projected to average about 8½ percent this year for countries in the region, setting aside Zimbabwe. Risks in 2008 are tilted to the downside, but the region is better placed today to withstand a worsening of the global environment.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The region's prospects look strong. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa should reach 6 percent in 2007 and 6¾ percent in 2008. The economic expansion is strongest in oil exporters but cuts across all country groups. This would extend a period of very good performance. In recent years, sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing its strongest growth and lowest inflation in over 30 years.