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Africa > Uganda

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Front Matter
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

IMF Country Report No. 24/77

Keywords:
inflation risk; B. minimizing inflation; inflation outlook; transparency policy; development expenditure; Inflation; Fiscal consolidation; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Uganda’s Fifth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Economic recovery continues to gain strength following a rapid decline in inflation, favorable agriculture and robust industrial and services activity. Fiscal financing and foreign portfolio flows are facing headwinds amid tight global financial conditions and the passage of the Anti-Homosexuality Act in May 2023. The authorities are implementing fiscal consolidation to contain vulnerabilities, maintaining a moderately tight monetary stance in the face of upside risks to inflation and undertaking reforms to improve governance and reduce corruption. All September 2023 quantitative performance criteria were met, as well as most June 2023 indicative targets (ITs). Preliminary data suggest that the December 2023 IT for net credit to government and inflation were met but the IT for net international reserves was missed. Four out of seven structural benchmarks for the current review were met on or before test dates, and one was completed with a delay.
Keywords:
government debt service; inflation risk; excise duty regime; inflation outlook; authorities' effort; ECF program; financing risk; Inflation; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Credit; Imports; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Statement by Mr. Willie Nakunyada and Ms. Gonaya Basutli on Uganda March 6, 2024
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Introduction

Keywords:
ECF arrangement; governance reform; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Inclusive growth; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

1. The Ugandan economy continues to strengthen amidst increased downside risks. While the post-pandemic economic recovery has broadened, the passing of the Anti-Homosexuality Act (AHA) in May 2023, currently under review by the Constitutional Court following legal challenges, has complicated the external financing landscape. In particular, the World Bank (WB) has suspended new loans and put in place safeguard measures to ensure non-discrimination, that are likely to impact the pace of implementation of current projects (Box 1). More recently, the U.S. Government issued a business advisory cautioning private investors against financial and reputational risks stemming from corruption and human rights restrictions in Uganda and removed Uganda from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). These actions have increased downside risks, including for external financing.

Keywords:
cash management; IMF staff calculation; headline inflation; upside inflation risk; IMF obligation
Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Uganda: Technical Assistance Report-PFM Climate Assessment: Public Investment and Fiscal Risks Management
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Uganda has committed to an ambitious climate change mitigation and adaption agenda. To achieve this, the country has developed a sound framework to enhance climate change sensitivity across public financial and public investment management. The framework clearly allocates responsibilities, enhances coordination, and requires the identification of climate expenses in the budget documentation. However, gaps remain in some key regulations, primarily on project appraisal, and some initiatives are in early stages of implementation and need further guidance and training. The Climate Public Investment Management Assessment proposes reforms across multiple areas, underscoring as priority areas project appraisal and selection, and budgeting and portfolio management.
Keywords:
Uganda; public investment; climate change; public finance
Cover High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Uganda: PFM Climate Assessment: Public Investment and Fiscal Risks Management
Arturo Navarro
,
Matthew K Quillinan
,
Jyoti Rahman
,
Natalia Salazar
,
Eivind Tandberg
, and
Tjeerd Tim
Uganda has committed to an ambitious climate change mitigation and adaption agenda. To achieve this, the country has developed a sound framework to enhance climate change sensitivity across public financial and public investment management. The framework clearly allocates responsibilities, enhances coordination, and requires the identification of climate expenses in the budget documentation. However, gaps remain in some key regulations, primarily on project appraisal, and some initiatives are in early stages of implementation and need further guidance and training. The Climate Public Investment Management Assessment proposes reforms across multiple areas, underscoring as priority areas project appraisal and selection, and budgeting and portfolio management.
Keywords:
Public investment; climate change; public finance
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines tax policy and administrative changes in Eastern African Community (EAC) countries with a view to benchmark Kenya’s experience and draw lessons for future tax reforms. Using granular data from a new IMF database on tax measures announced during 1988–2022, it concludes that EAC policymakers frequently changed their tax system and administrations by announcing tax packages that typically consisted of measures to narrow the tax base and strengthen tax administrative practices. Kenya appeared to be one of the EAC countries that most frequently announced and introduced such changes, which might have played a significant role in explaining the reduction in the tax-to-gross domestic product ratio experienced by the country since 2014. The conclusions of this note are subject to caveats, as the frequency of tax measures is not an indicator of the actual revenue impact of such measures. Looking at the frequency of changes, however, can help identify reform episodes providing a sense of their duration and comprehensiveness.
Keywords:
public sector balance sheet methodology; exchange rate shock; public sector balance sheet vulnerability; public sector balance sheet approach; HM Treasury; EAC policymaker; Tax-to-GDP ratio; Financial statements; Exchange rates; Public sector; Fiscal risks; Global; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Rwanda: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper revisits Rwanda’s options to create fiscal space to meet long-term development challenges. It examines strategies and options for a credible and comprehensive domestic revenue mobilization. The paper analyzes the driving factors of past reform successes and use an original dataset to highlight the benefits of implementing comprehensive tax reforms over selective reforms. The paper concludes that selective measures tend to yield protracted loss of revenue while measures implemented comprehensively lead to increases in revenue in the medium term. This stresses the need for an integrated approach to fiscal policy reform coordination to maximize long-term revenue benefits. For Rwanda, a comprehensive strategy for increasing tax revenues by adjusting rates, broadening the domestic tax base, improving tax compliance, and curbing tax evasion is the way forward. The strategy should shift higher tax burden from low-income households to higher income wealth cohorts with the view to advancing distributional fairness against growing inequality.
Keywords:
climate agenda; NDC financing; monetary policy transmission; financing option; implementation framework; Climate finance; Natural disasters; Central bank policy rate; Value-added tax; Global; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Front Matter
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

IMF Country Report No. 23/229

Keywords:
monetary policy stance; fiscal policy tightening; inflation projection; IMF arrangement; transparency policy; Financial sector stability; Inflation; Revenue mobilization; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of a Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Uganda’s Fourth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, the Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion and Modification of a Performance Criterion and the Financing Assurance Review. The program aims to support the near-term response to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and boost inclusive private sector-led long-term growth. Reforms focus on creating fiscal space for priority social spending, preserving debt sustainability, strengthening governance and reducing corruption, and enhancing the monetary and financial sector frameworks. The Ugandan economy is projected to grow by 5.5 percent in FY 22/23 and 6 percent in FY 23/24. Inflation has been declining and is expected to reach the Bank of Uganda’s medium-term target of 5% core inflation by end-2023. A stronger tightening of global financial conditions would constrain the availability of syndicated loans and weigh on financial sector stability. Fiscal consolidation and tight monetary policy remain essential to keep debt on a sustainable path. Structural reforms will need to continue focusing on strengthening governance and anticorruption frameworks, enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, and boosting financial inclusion.
Keywords:
FX reserves-financed government import; core inflation; steadfast adherence; excise duty regime; monetary policy implementation; Credit; Debt sustainability; Global