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International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Anke Hoeffler
,
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
, and
Mr. Paul Collier
This paper sets flight capital in the context of portfolio choice, focusing upon the proportion of private wealth that is held abroad. There are large regional differences in this proportion, ranging from 5 percent in South Asia to 40 percent in Africa. We explain cross-country differences in portfolio choice by variables that proxy differences in the risk-adjusted rate of return on capital. We apply the results to four policy questions: how the East Asian crisis affected domestic capital outflows; herd effects; the effect of the IMF-World Bank debt relief initiative for heavily-indebted poor countries (HIPC) on capital repatriation; and why so much of Africa’s private wealth is held outside the continent.
Jean-Pierre Briffaut
,
Mr. George Iden
,
Mr. Peter C. Hayward
,
Mr. Tonny Lybek
,
Mr. Hassanali Mehran
,
Mr. Piero Ugolini
, and
Mr. Stephen M Swaray

Abstract

This study takes stock of progress made so far in the financial sectors of sub-saharan African countries. It recommends further reforms and specific measures in the areas of supervision, development of monetary operations and financial markets, external sector liberalization, central bank autonomy and accountability, payments system, and central bank accounting and auditing.

Mr. Noureddine Krichene
In a case study of Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda, this paper finds that bilateral real exchange rates revert to a long-term equilibrium in line with purchasing power parities, implying that these countries constitute an integrated trading zone, their markets are interdependent and arbitrage works efficiently, and intraregional competitiveness is preserved. These findings are partly explained by the flexibility of nominal exchange rates and prices and the absence of long-term productivity differences among these countries. To strengthen market integration, foster private sector development, and enhance growth prospects, the paper emphasizes the importance of increased trade, competitive labor markets, flexible exchange rates, and convergence of macroeconomic and structural policies.
Mr. George A Mackenzie
and
Mr. Peter Stella

Abstract

Central banks and other public financial institutions act as agents of fiscal policy in many countries. Their "quasi-fiscal" operations and activities can affect the overall public sector balance without affecting the budget deficit as conventionally measured, may also have important allocative effects, and increase the effective size of the public sector. This paper analyzes the macroeconomic and financial effects of such quasi-fiscal activities, as well as the taxes, subsidies, and other expenditures that such activities introduce outside the budget. Measurement and accounting issues are addressed, and policy recommendations are offered.

Mr. Amor Tahari
,
Mr. M. Nowak
,
Mr. Michael T. Hadjimichael
, and
Mr. Robert L. Sharer

Abstract

Over the past two decades, sub-Saharan Africa has lagged behind other regions in economic performance. The important overall indicators of performance, however, mask wide differences among countries. On the whole, countries that effectively implemented comprehensive adjustment and reform programs showed better results. Their experiences demonstrate that an expansion in private saving and investment is key to achieving gains in real per capita GDP. The four papers included in this publication provide a cross country analysis that assesses empirically the role of publlic policies in stimulating private saving and investment in the region in 1986-92 and describe the adjustment experiences of Ghana (1983-91), Senegal (1978-1993), and Uganda (1987-94).

Ms. Hema R. De Zoysa
,
Mr. Robert L. Sharer
, and
Mr. Calvin A McDonald

Abstract

This paper explores not only the recent adjustment efforts but also the prospects for Uganda in the medium term. It provides an overview of recent economic performance with respect to growth, saving, and investment, and provides an analysis of Uganda's external adjustment efforts. The paper surveys fiscal adjustment and the prospects for a sustainable fiscal position, public enterprise reform, and army demobilization.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.

International Monetary Fund
This Background Paper presents a long-term perspective on investment and output performance in Uganda, beginning after the country gained independence in the early 1960s. Against the background of long-term trends in savings, investment, and output, the paper describes the initial conditions that led to the adoption of adjustment policies. The macroeconomic policy mix, together with important structural policies, is analyzed and the outcomes are assessed for 1987–94, during which Uganda pursued an ongoing adjustment program supported by successive arrangements with the IMF under the structural adjustment facility and the enhanced structural adjustment facility.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Les Perspectives de l'économie mondiale (PEM) présentent des analyses de l'évolution économique mondiale à court et moyen termes, préparées par les principaux économistes du FMI. Elles constituent une ressource respectée, centrale et fiable d'informations fouillées et équilibrées, permettant aux décideurs et aux dirigeants du monde entier de prendre le recul nécessaire. Publiées deux fois par an, les Perspectives de l’économie mondiale présentent sous une forme claire et pratique les perspectives en matière de croissance, d’inflation, de commerce international et d’emploi, et s'intéressent également à d'autres domaines économiques. Chaque numéro des PEM se penche sur les problèmes qui touchent les pays avancés, émergents et en développement. Les banques centrales, les économistes, les institutions financières, les chefs d’entreprises, les gouvernements, les groupes de réflexion et les chercheurs attendent avec impatience cette étude sans pareille de la situation actuelle et de ce qui se prépare.