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Aly Abdou
,
Olivier Basdevant
,
Elizabeth David-Barrett
, and
Mihaly Fazekas
Public procurement can be highly vulnerable to corruption. This paper outlines a methodology and results in assessing corruption risks in public procurement and their impact on relative prices, using large databases on government contracts and tenders. Our primary contribution is to analyze how price differential in public procurement contracts can be explained by corruption risk factor (aggregated in a synthetic corruption risk index). While there are intrinsic limitations to our study (price differentials can come from structural reasons, such as a limited number of potential suppliers) it still provides a guiding tool to assess where corruption risks would have the biggest budgetary impact. Such analysis helps inform mitigating policies owing to the granular data used.
Maria Borga
,
Achille Pegoue
,
Mr. Gregory M Legoff
,
Alberto Sanchez Rodelgo
,
Dmitrii Entaltsev
, and
Kenneth Egesa
Maria Borga
,
Achille Pegoue
,
Mr. Gregory M Legoff
,
Alberto Sanchez Rodelgo
,
Dmitrii Entaltsev
, and
Kenneth Egesa

This paper presents estimates of the carbon emissions of FDI from capital formation funded by FDI and the production of foreign-controlled firms. The carbon intensity of capital formation financed by FDI has trended down, driven by reductions in the carbon intensity of electricity generation. Carbon emissions from the operations of foreign-controlled firms are greater than those from their capital formation. High emission intensities were accompanied by high export intensities in mining, transport, and manufacturing. Home country policies to incentivize firms to meet strict emissions standards in both their domestic and foreign operations could be important to reducing emissions globally.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The authorities have reacted to the COVID-19 crisis in an appropriate manner, including through increased spending on health and a rollout of the vaccination program. Nevertheless, the deterioration of socio-economic indicators during the pandemic could create scars that would significantly lower growth if left unaddressed.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

1. Our Ugandan authorities appreciate the constructive engagement with staff during the recent Article IV consultations and first review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, and broadly share staffs assessment. We also appreciate staffs Selected Issues Papers, which provide helpful backing analysis.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

1. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated Uganda’s development challenges. The growth recovery of 2017–18— which started reversing the slowing per capita income growth observed since 2011—came to a halt in FY19/20 following a collapse in external demand and stringent lockdown measures introduced to alleviate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. By June 2021, Uganda’s poverty ratio worsened, formal employment fell, subsistence agriculture increased, private savings declined, child labor rose, and schools remained closed (Box 1). If left unaddressed, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic could create scars that would significantly lower potential growth, in the face of the continuing challenge to create at least 600,000 jobs per year for Uganda’s growing population.

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Uganda is prone to natural disasters that climate change is making more frequent and impactful. Besides the direct damages to lives and livelihoods, the effects of disasters, such as floods and droughts, extend to the wider economy. As recognized by the Third National Development Plan, climate adaptation and preparedness are essential to ensure the resilience of the population and the economy to extreme weather events. Debt-Investment-Growth-Natural-Disasters (DIGNAD) model simulations underscore that building adaptation infrastructure can reduce by two thirds the GDP losses at the trough triggered by a disruptive disaster and almost halve the resulting fiscal gap. Given the financial challenges posed by scaling up adaptation, international support—and scaling up capacity to access donor funds—is required to meet ambitious adaptation plans.