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Africa > Uganda

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Short-Run Macroeconomics of Aid Inflows: Understanding the Interaction of Fiscal and Reserve Policy
Luis-Felipe Zanna
,
Mr. Andrew Berg
,
Mr. Tokhir N Mirzoev
, and
Mr. Rafael A Portillo
We develop a tractable open-economy new-Keynesian model with two sectors to analyze the short-term effects of aid-financed fiscal expansions. We distinguish between spending the aid, which is under the control of the fiscal authorities, and absorbing the aid-using the aid to finance a higher current account deficit-which is influenced by the central bank's reserves policy when access to international capital markets is limited. The standard treatment of the transfer problem implicitly assumes spending equals absorption. Here, in contrast, a policy mix that results in spending but not absorbing the aid generates demand pressures and results in an increase in real interest rates. It can also lead to a temporary real depreciation if demand pressures are strong enough to threaten external balance. Certain features of low income countries, such as limited participation in domestic financial markets, make a real depreciation more likely by amplifying demand pressures when aid is spent but not absorbed. The results from our model can help understand the recent experience of Uganda, which saw an increase in government spending following a surge in aid yet experienced a real depreciation and an increase in real interest rates.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; exchange rate
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: Fifth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Modification of Assessment Criteria: Staff Report; and Press Release
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Fifth Review under the policy support instrument for Uganda. Strong fundamentals and prudent economic policies of the past give Uganda scope to implement measured countercyclical policies without undermining macroeconomic stability. Monetary policy has been gradually eased in the face of the dry-up in private external financing. In spite of the slowdown-induced shortfall in tax revenue, the fiscal authorities are committed to accelerate and improve execution of investment spending to provide a positive impulse to growth and remove critical bottlenecks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; PSI-supported program; IMF's framework; growth; financial system; Uganda's PSI; core inflation; financial crisis; FAD mission; Budget planning and preparation; International reserves; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kenya: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
Like most Sub-Saharan African countries, Kenya’s economic growth appears to have been primarily driven by factor accumulation. The Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for Kenya examines economic developments and policies. During the last two decades, Kenya has been plagued by pervasive problems of internal conflicts, constitutional crises, and corruption scandals. The governance agenda focuses on several reforms, including upgrading the public budget and financial management systems, strengthening the anticorruption institutions, and improving the judicial framework.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kenya; pay; inflation; TFP growth; wage bill; Reduced-Form inflation equation; development objective; governance agenda; growth performance; bill-to-domestic revenue; Tariffs; Total factor productivity; Wages; Real exchange rates; Imports; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East; Africa; East Asia; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2008, Sub-Saharan Africa
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2008, Sub-Saharan Africa
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa's prospects have deteriorated somewhat and the risks have increased, according to this report. Growth in the region is projected to dip to 6 percent in 2008 and 2009. The fall is due mainly to the global food and fuel price shock, which has weighed particularly on growth in oil-importing countries, and to the global financial market turmoil, which has slowed global growth and demand for Africa's exports. Inflation is expected to rise to 12 percent in 2008, mainly on account of the food and fuel price shock. As a result of rising prices, particularly of food, poverty may well be on the increase in 2008. In 2009, inflation should ease to 10 percent, helped by recent commodity price declines. There are significant risks to the outlook related to a potentially deeper and longer period of global financial turmoil and resulting slowdown in global activity, and substantial uncertainty concerning commodity prices.

Keywords:
REO; oil-exporting country; fuel price; oil-importing country; middle-income country; broad money; WEO database; oil importer; oil exporter; price shock; Dem. rep.; trade balance; growth episode; Exchange rate arrangements; Inflation; Conventional peg; Floating exchange rates; Oil; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; East Africa; Southern Africa; food price inflation; inflation pressure; Food prices; Income; Terms of trade
Cover IMF Working Papers
Beyond Macroeconomic Stability: The Quest for Industrialization in Uganda
Mr. Abebe Aemro Selassie
Uganda has registered one of the most impressive economic turnarounds of recent decades. The amelioration of conflict and wide ranging economic reforms kick-started rapid economic growth that has now been sustained for some 20 years. But there is a strong sense in policy making circles that despite macroeconomic stability and reasonably well functioning markets, economic growth has not translated into significant structural transformation. This paper considers (i) Uganda's record of economic transformation relative to the high growth Asian countries and (ii) the contending explanations as to why more transformation and higher growth has proved elusive.
Keywords:
WP; SG country; exchange rate; per capita income; growth acceleration; economic activity; take-off date
Cover IMF Survey
Boletín del FMI Vol.36, No.06 abril de 2007
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
El Boletín del FMI aborda de manera específica el trabajo del FMI y los grandes temas macroeconómicos y financieros internacionales y ofrece análisis sobre la evolución en los distintos países y regiones y en el mundo; información sobre las operaciones, políticas, reformas y asistencia técnica del FMI; síntesis de las principales investigaciones económicas mundiales; datos fundamentales que no suelen estar disponibles en otras fuentes, e informes sobre debates económicos y financieros que tienen lugar dentro y fuera del FMI. Este boletín de 16 páginas, publicado 12 veces al año, está orientado a una vasta audiencia, que incluye autoridades de política económica, analistas, profesionales del mundo académico y de los medios de difusión y estudiantes. Disponible en inglés, español y francés.
Keywords:
SV; economy; GDP; SDR; Rodrigo de Rato
Cover IMF Survey
Bulletin du FMI vol. 36, n° 6, avril 2007
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
En mettant l’accent sur le travail du FMI et sur les grandes questions macroéconomiques et financières internationales, le Bulletin du FMI présente une analyse des développements nationaux, régionaux et mondiaux, des informations sur le travail, les politiques, les réformes et les activités d'assistance technique du FMI, les conclusions d'études de calibre mondial, des données essentielles qui ne sont souvent pas disponibles ailleurs, ainsi que des rapports sur les discussions économiques et financières au sein du FMI et ailleurs. Publié douze fois par an, ce bulletin de seize pages s'adresse à un large public : dirigeants, analystes, chercheurs, étudiants et journalistes. Disponible en anglais, français et espagnol.
Keywords:
SV; economy; GDP; SDR; Rodrigo de Rato
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 36 Issue 06
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Spring Meetings preview, world outlook, global financial stability, U.S. subprime mortgages, labor globalization, external imbalances, IMF and Africa, wage bill ceilings, policy support instrument, modernizing IMF surveillance, India, Bulgaria, PNoWB.
Keywords:
SV; economy; GDP; SDR; Rodrigo de Rato; IMF survey; IMF quota; IMF publication service; banks in Africa; unit of account of the IMF; Poverty reduction strategy; Inflation; Poverty reduction; Housing prices; Global; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; East Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Uganda: 2006 Article IV Consultation and Staff Report for the 2006 Article IV Consultation, First Review of the Policy Support Instrument, Request for Waiver of Assessment Criteria, and Request for a Three-Year Policy Support Instrument: Staff Report; Public Information Notice and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
International Monetary Fund
This 2006 Article IV Consultation highlights that an acute electricity crisis threatens Uganda’s macroeconomic performance. The regional drought in 2005/06 reduced Uganda’s already inadequate hydropower-generating capacity, resulting in a production gap of nearly one-half of demand. The authorities have requested a new three-year policy support instrument in support of their near- and medium-term policies. The authorities’ main objectives are to sustain macroeconomic stability while tackling the ongoing electricity crisis and addressing other infrastructure deficiencies to alleviate existing constraints on growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; infrastructure bottleneck; PSI-supported program; policy; GDP; Executive Board discussion; government budget strategy; IMF's Policy Support Instrument; Arrears; Infrastructure; Debt relief; Poverty reduction; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Uganda: Managing More Effective Decentralization
Mr. Giorgio Brosio
,
Mr. Ehtisham Ahmad
, and
Ms. Maria Gonzalez
This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. A politically driven and ambitious decentralization program implemented by the authorities since the late 1990s has had mixed results in terms of enhancing service delivery. Paradoxically, concerns with the results of service delivery, partially driven by donors' requirements, have resulted in a deconcentrated system relying on conditional grants and unfunded mandates. This has reduced the incentives, responsibility, and ownership for local authorities to improve service delivery. Crucially, for functions where the local authorities have had full responsibility, better service quality has resulted than in those areas in which there are overlapping responsibilities between the center and the local authorities.
Keywords:
WP; local authorities; service delivery; government tier; expenditure function; government expenditure