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Europe > Ukraine

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Designing Expenditure Policy Conditionality in IMF-Supported Programs
Emine Hanedar
and
Zsuzsa Munkacsi
This gap-filling paper provides granular advice on how to design quantitative and structural conditionality of IMF-supported programs in six expenditure policy areas: social assistance, energy subsidies, pension spending, health spending, education spending, and wage bill management. Such granular advice is based on a stocktaking exercise: an analysis of 105 programs approved between 2002 and July 2021 containing a ca. 1400 conditions. Conditions are key to identify outcomes or actions seen as critical for program success or monitoring, and so are essential for financial support countries can receive from the Fund.
Keywords:
IMF-supported programs; conditionality; expenditure policy; social assistance; energy subsidies; pension spending; health spending; education spending; wage bill management; policy conditionality; policy area; IMF working papers; reform plan; E. public health spending; Health care spending; Caribbean; North Africa; Middle East; East Africa; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sierra Leone: Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights Sierra Leone’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy. The Government of Sierra Leone (GoSL) has launched a new Medium-Term National Development Plan (MTNDP). Crucial lessons have been learned in the implementation of the previous plan 2019-2023 that are important for the current acceleration and transformative plan to deliver a resilient and robust economy for Sierra Leone by 2030. Accordingly, five national goals for 2030 have been identified to accelerate efforts toward achieving the country’s vision of becoming an inclusive and green middle-income country by 2039. One of the goals is to create 500,000 jobs for the youth (with at least a 30% representation of women), including skilled and unskilled, long term, as well as seasonal jobs across all sectors by 2030 (directly related to Big 5.3). While the agriculture industry experienced modest growth, its reliance on the domestic market has impeded the ability to expand agricultural exports.
Keywords:
government ministry; Medium-Term National Development Plan; government of Sierra Leone; Sierra Leone economy; Development secretary Mr. Peter Sam-Kpakra; Public sector; Global; Africa; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Heterogeneous Effects of Uncertainty on Trade
Ibrahim Nana
,
Rasmané Ouedraogo
, and
Sampawende J Tapsoba
This paper empirically investigates the relationship between uncertainty and trade. We use a gravity model for 143 countries over the 1980-2021 period to assess the impact of uncertainty on bilateral trade. We confirm that, in general, uncertainty has a negative impact on trade. The findings suggest that a one standard deviation increase in global uncertainty is associated with a decline in bilateral trade by 4.5 percent, with fuel and industrial products trade being the most impacted. This negative impact is observed for uncertainty on both sides of the border, with a higher impact of uncertainty from the importing country. The article goes deeper into the analysis and shows that deeper trade integration (horizontal integration) mitigates the negative impact of uncertainty on trade. In contrast, higher participation in global value chains (vertical integration) amplifies the negative effect of uncertainty on trade. We find that geopolitical tensions amplify the deterrent effect of uncertainty on trade. Finally, the result is heterogeneous across income levels, regions, and resource endowment: (a) uncertainty has a negative impact on bilateral trade between Emerging Markets and Developing Economies and Advanced Economies; however, (b) at the regional level, Africa and Europe’s intraregional trade decrease as uncertainty surges. (c) Evidence shows that non-resources-rich countries are more at risk.
Keywords:
Trade; Uncertainty; Geopolitics; Global Value Chains; Gravity model; trade decrease; sectoral trade; bilateral trade; importing country; resource endowment; Plurilateral trade; Exports; Imports; Gravity models; COVID-19; Global; Middle East; Europe; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Shifting and Steepening of Phillips Curves During the Pandemic Recovery: International Evidence and Some Theory
Tryggvi Gudmundsson
,
Chris Jackson
, and
Rafael A Portillo
We study the global inflation surge during the pandemic recovery and the implications for aggregate and sectoral Phillips curves. We provide evidence that Phillips curves shifted up and steepened across advanced economies, and that differences in the inflation response across sectors imply the relative price of goods has been pro-cyclical this time around rather than a-cyclical as during previous cycles. We show analytically that these three features emerge endogenously in a two-sector new-Keynesian model when we introduce unbalanced recoveries that run against a supply constraint in the goods sector. A calibrated exercise shows that the resulting changes to the output-inflation relation are quantitatively important and improve the model's ability to replicate the inflation surge during this period.
Keywords:
Inflation; Phillips Curves; COVID-19; inflation surge; output-inflation relation; sectoral Phillips curves; inflation response; goods price; Output gap; Business cycles; Economic recession; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cote d'Ivoire: Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Côte d'Ivoire’s poverty reduction and growth strategy. The macroeconomic framework has been sound, with low inflation, a sustainable public sector, a robust banking system and a balanced external position. Poverty in Côte d'Ivoire has been steadily decreasing since 2016, continuing the trend observed since early 2011. Access to electricity has improved throughout the national territory. Actions have been undertaken to enhance the economy’s productivity through the strengthening of infrastructure and governance. In particular, Côte d’Ivoire is committed to advancing equality between men and women in all areas of public and private life, in order to empower women economically, socially, and politically and achieve a more egalitarian society. The government has undertaken to step up actions in favor of girls' education, increase access rates.
Keywords:
Ivorian government; government plan; Ivorian authority; government's Social Program; medium-term development strategy; social action; Climate change; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover Policy Papers
Thirteenth Periodic Monitoring Report on The Status of Management Implementation Plans in Response to Board-Endorsed IEO Recommendations
International Monetary Fund. Office of Internal Audit
Overall, progress has been made since the Twelfth PMR on actions in response to eight IEO evaluations, with the pace of implementation being faster on actions October 31, 2023 THIRTEENTH PERIODIC MONITORING REPORT 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND contained in the MIP in Response to the Executive Board-Endorsed Categorization of Open Actions in Management Implementation Plans. It is also worth mentioning that many open actions depend on the implementation of some important reviews/key steps that are expected to be completed in or soon after December 2023, such as the Capacity Development (CD) Strategy Review, the issuance of a new CD Guidance Note, an update of the Small Developing States Staff Guidance Note (SDS-SGN), the Operational Guidance Note (OGN) on Program Design and Conditionality, and a Board paper on Bank-Fund collaboration.
Keywords:
IEO evaluation; transparency policy; IEO recommendation; strategy review; Thirteenth PMR; Institutional View on capital flows; Capital flows; COVID-19; Capital account; Global; East Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; Caribbean; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Working Papers
Revisiting Covid Scarring in Emerging Markets
Chris Jackson
and
Jason Lu
The Covid-19 pandemic is expected to result in large and persistent losses in economic output, known as scarring. These losses were expected to be more severe in Emerging Markets than in Advanced Economies. This paper examines the impact of Covid on output in Emerging Markets so far and its implications for projections of economic scarring. While Covid has had a material impact on activity, the recovery has been stronger than initially expected. We find that these positive data surprises have over time been treated increasingly as transitory rather than a signal for the state of scarring. Second, we show that the composition of output losses has been qualitatively different from past last shocks. History suggests that the main driver of scarring is weak productivity. Covid losses, however, have so far been more skewed to employment with a smaller than usual impact on productivity. We argue that these findings suggest that scarring, while substantial, may be ultimately less severe than initially feared, at least over the medium term. We provide alternative sets of medium-term projections to indicate potential magnitudes.
Keywords:
COVID-19; scarring; medium-term output; Emerging Markets; output loss; GDP growth data; revisiting Covid; POST-Covid GDP loss; scarring estimate; Total factor productivity; Employment; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Wages; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of The Cumulative Access Limits Under The Rapid Financing Instrument and The Rapid Credit Facility
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The IMF extended the temporarily higher Cumulative Access Limits under the Fund’s Emergency Financing instruments, the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) under the General Resources Account, and the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust. This extension ensures that the Fund can continue to support member countries that accessed Fund’s emergency financing during COVID-19 pandemic in case of renewed emergency situations. The temporarily higher cumulative access limits under the RFI will be maintained until end-June 2024 when most RFI recipients will have repaid a significant part of their past emergency financing. The temporarily higher cumulative access limits under the RCF will be maintained until the completion of the 2024/25 comprehensive review of the Fund’s concessional facilities and financing, given the longer repayment schedule for RCF financing.
Keywords:
Cumulative Access Limits; Rapid Financing Instrument; Rapid Credit Facility; LND window; UCT-quality program; RCF ES window; FSW financing; RFI recipient; FSW relative; FSW experience; Emergency assistance; COVID-19; Balance of payments need; Credit; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, April 2023
Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa, April 2023
The Big Funding Squeeze
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

A funding squeeze has hit the region hard. Persistent global inflation and tighter monetary policies have led to higher borrowing costs for sub-Saharan African countries and have placed greater pressure on exchange rates. Indeed, no country has been able to issue a Eurobond since spring 2022.The interest burden on public debt is rising, owing to a greater reliance on expensive market-based funding combined with a long-term decline in aid budgets. The lack of financing affects a region that is already struggling with elevated macroeconomic imbalances. Public debt and inflation are at levels not seen in decades, with double-digit inflation present in about half of the countries—eroding household purchasing power and striking at the most vulnerable. In this context, the economic recovery has been interrupted. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa will decline to 3.6 percent this year. Amid a global slowdown, activity is expected to decelerate for a second year in a row. Still, this headline figure masks significant variation across the region. The funding squeeze will also impact the region’s longer-term outlook. A shortage of funding may force countries to reduce resources for critical development sectors like health, education, and infrastructure, weakening the region’s growth potential.

Keywords:
Geoeconomic fragmentation; trade; debt; foreign direct investment; aid; economic growth; exchange rate; currency depreciation; foreign exchange; international reserves; inflation; public debt; trade balance; Africa; US dollar strength; climate change; green transition; foreign aid; multilateral development banks; concessional finance; funding squeeze; financing condition; exchange rate pressure; anchored inflation; inflation expectation; emergency financing facilities; stickier-than-expected inflation; sub-Saharan Africa address; financing environment; countercyclical financing; monetary policy tightening; inflation projection; Exchange rates; Climate finance; Food prices; Fiscal consolidation; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Temporary Modifications to The Fund’s Annual and Cumulative Access Limits
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
,
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
In light of current elevated uncertainty and challenges in the global economy, the IMF has temporarily increased the limits on access in the Fund’s General Resources Account (GRA) to 200 percent of a member’s quota annually and 600 percent of quota cumulatively (from 145 and 435 percent of quota previously, respectively, last set in 2016). These changes will be in place for 12 months and, if circumstances warrant, the Executive Board may consider extending them further before their expiration. Regarding the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT), the paper proposes that the Executive Board reviews PRGT access limits once sufficient subsidy resources have been pledged to the PRGT. The impact on GRA resources and risks to the Fund from the proposed changes are expected to be manageable.
Keywords:
access limit; executive board review PRGT access; PRGT resource; PRGT access metrics; concessional financing arm; Credit; COVID-19; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Credit risk; Debt sustainability; Global