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Europe > Ukraine

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Cover Policy Papers
The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda, Spring Meetings 2024: Rebuild, Revive, Renew
International Monetary Fund
The global economy has shown remarkable resilience, and appears headed for a soft landing. But buffers have been eroded, growth prospects are lackluster, and vulnerable countries are at risk of falling further behind. While inflation has fallen, it remains above target in many countries. Against this background, the key policy priorities are to: (i) rebuild buffers; (ii) revive medium-term growth; and (iii) renew the IMF’s commitment to ensure that our policies, lending toolkit, and governance are fit for purpose. Central banks need to finish the job on inflation, carefully managing its descent to target. With a soft landing in sight, policymakers’ focus needs to shift to fiscal consolidation to safeguard public finances. Reviving growth prospects will require accelerating structural reforms and joint efforts by countries to tackle transformational challenges. Firmly grounded in its mandate, working with its members, and in partnership with other international organizations, the IMF will continue to serve its members with policy advice, financial lifelines, and capacity development to help safeguard their economic and financial stability, a foundation for inclusive and sustainable growth.
Keywords:
Policy agenda; IMF surveillance; IMF-WTO dialogue; global Policy agenda; quota resource; lending capacity; Fiscal consolidation; Inclusive growth; Financial sector stability; Financial sector risk; Artificial intelligence; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Is Inflation Good for Business? The Firm-Level Impact of Inflation Shocks in the Baltics, 1997-2021
Serhan Cevik
,
Alice Fan
, and
Sadhna Naik
Using a large panel of firm-level data, this paper provides an analysis of how inflation shocks in the Baltics between 1997 and 2021 affected total factor productivity (TFP), gross profitability, and net fixed investment in nonfinancial sectors. First, we find that inflation and inflation volatility had mixed effects on TFP growth, profitability and net fixed investment in the first year as well as over the medium term, albeit at a dissipating rate. Second, focusing on subsamples, we find that inflation shocks had differential effects on large versus small firms. Third, we explore sectoral heterogeneity in how firms responded to inflation shocks and observe significant variation across tradable and non-tradable sectors. Finally, estimates from a state-dependent model suggest that firms’ response to inflation shocks varied with the state of the economy. The results suggest that nonfinancial firms in the Baltics have been agile in adjusting to inflation shocks, possibly by either transferring higher production costs to consumers or substituting inputs. Given the differences in the level and nature of the recent inflation shock and the sample period on which our analysis is based, empirical findings presented in this paper might not necessarily apply to the latest bout of inflation in the Baltics.
Keywords:
Inflation; firm performance; productivity; profitability; fixed investment; Baltics; Estonia; Latvia; Lithuania; inflation shock; inflation volatility; IMF working paper No. 24/43; nonfinancial firm; impact of inflation; affected total factor productivity; Total factor productivity; Economic recession
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Shifting and Steepening of Phillips Curves During the Pandemic Recovery: International Evidence and Some Theory
Tryggvi Gudmundsson
,
Chris Jackson
, and
Rafael A Portillo
We study the global inflation surge during the pandemic recovery and the implications for aggregate and sectoral Phillips curves. We provide evidence that Phillips curves shifted up and steepened across advanced economies, and that differences in the inflation response across sectors imply the relative price of goods has been pro-cyclical this time around rather than a-cyclical as during previous cycles. We show analytically that these three features emerge endogenously in a two-sector new-Keynesian model when we introduce unbalanced recoveries that run against a supply constraint in the goods sector. A calibrated exercise shows that the resulting changes to the output-inflation relation are quantitatively important and improve the model's ability to replicate the inflation surge during this period.
Keywords:
Inflation; Phillips Curves; COVID-19; inflation surge; output-inflation relation; sectoral Phillips curves; inflation response; goods price; Output gap; Business cycles; Economic recession; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Development Committee: The Managing Director's Written Statement October 2023
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The global economy has shown resilience, but the recovery is slow and uneven. Risks have moderated in recent months but remain tilted to the downside. Headline inflation is about half of its 2022 peak but the decline in core inflation is more gradual. Growth momentum across most low-income and emerging market countries is weakening and achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is becoming increasingly challenging. While restoring price stability, normalizing fiscal policy, and protecting the vulnerable remain near-term policy priorities, policymakers should actively pursue policies that can support sustained growth—including macro-structural reforms and green transition. Multilateral cooperation is critical to address the challenges that hold back global recovery and shadow future prosperity, including risks associated with geoeconomic fragmentation.
Keywords:
growth; multilateral cooperation; emerging market country; policy priority; growth momentum; decline in core inflation; inflation expectation; Inflation; Price stabilization; Climate change; Monetary tightening; Food security; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers from Russia to Neighboring Countries: Transmission Channels and Policy Options
Shant Arzoumanian
This paper studies how output fluctuations in Russia are transmitted internationally. Using vector autoregression (VAR) and dynamic panel models, the paper finds that Russia’s output fluctuations are an important driver of output fluctuations of countries in the region, especially for oil importers, and are transmitted increasingly via trade and market confidence channels. The magnitude of cross-border spillovers is larger for countries with relatively high bilateral trade concentration, low export diversification, and weak external buffers. The paper also finds evidence that stronger public institutional quality- especially in the fiscal area- may help insulate countries from volatility in the Russian sovereign debt market.
Keywords:
Spillovers; international business cycles; trade; remittances; FDI; market confidence; emerging markets; output fluctuation; policy option; spillovers from Russia; CIS economy; Annex I. data definition; Business cycles; Oil prices; Exports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing the Impact of Supply Disruptions on the Global Pandemic Recovery
Harri Kemp
,
Mr. Rafael A Portillo
, and
Marika Santoro
We estimate the role of (pre-Ukraine war) supply disruptions in constraining the Covid-19 pandemic recovery, for several advanced economies and emerging markets, and globally. We rely on two approaches. In the first approach, we use sign-restricted Vector Auto Regressions (SVAR) to identify supply and demand shocks in manufacturing, based on the co-movement of surveys on new orders and suppliers’ delivery times. The effects of these shocks on industrial production and GDP are recovered through a combination of local projection methods and the input-output framework in Acemoglu et al. (2016). In the second approach, we use the IMF’s G20 model to gauge the importance of supply shocks in jointly driving activity and inflation surprises. We find that supply disruptions subtracted between 0.5 and 1.2 percent from global value added during the global recovery in 2021, while also adding about 1 percent to global core inflation that same year.
Keywords:
Supply constraints; manufacturing; output; inflation; supply and demand demand shock; Ukraine war; supply disruption; supply-demand decomposition; inflation deviation; Supply shocks; Economic recovery; Industrial production; Global
Cover Policy Papers
A Strategy for IMF Engagement on Social Spending
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
, and
Review Department
Interest in social spending issues has intensified over the last decade. This reflects concerns about rising inequality and the need to support vulnerable groups, especially in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. In line with this, the Fund has also increased its engagement on social spending issues. This paper outlines a strategy to guide IMF engagement on social spending issues going forward.
Keywords:
PP; spending; spending issue; social spending; fund; effectiveness; IMF surveillance; program policy advice; policy trade-off; Income inequality; Health care spending; Inclusive growth; Social assistance spending; Education spending; Global; IMF engagement; SpendingA strategy; engagement on Social SpendingIMF Executive Board Supports New Strategy for engagement; financing constraint
Cover Policy Papers
IMF Managing Director's Statement to the Development Committee, April 2019
International Monetary Fund
While growth in advanced economies is losing momentum amid trade tensions and policy uncertainty, activity in many emerging and low-income developing countries (EMDEs) has remained more robust, supported by still favorable financing conditions. Differences across EMDEs are large, however, and downside risks are building. Policy priorities include enhancing resilience in response to a more challenging global environment, creating fiscal space for essential development spending, containing debt vulnerabilities, and promoting strong and inclusive growth. Strengthening revenue generating capacity, enhancing public spending efficiency, and addressing infrastructure gaps are critical for reaching the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.
Keywords:
PP; policy; financial support; debt; policy priority; debt limits policy; policy diagnostic; policy uncertainty; IMF support; debt vulnerability; Inclusive growth; Debt sustainability; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Global
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2009
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Crisis Stalls Globalization: Reshaping the World Economy" examines the multiple facets of the recession-from the impact on individual economies to the effect on the global payments imbalances that were partially at the root of the crisis-and offers a variety of suggestions for supporting a recovery and averting future crises. Several IMF studies shed light on the depth of the crisis-including a survey of the sharp drop in trade finance, along with quantitative findings about the direct and indirect costs of the financial turbulence-and debate what is to be done from several angles, including the redesign of the regulatory framework and ways to plug large data gaps to prevent future crises and aid in the creation of early warning systems. Opinion pieces discuss the shifting boundaries between the state and markets, the agenda for financial sector reform, and the governance of global financial markets. The issue also includes a historical perspective to see when restructuring the global financial architecture actually succeeds. "People in Economics" profiles Nouriel Roubini; "Back to Basics" looks at what makes a recession; and "Data Spotlight" examines Latin America's debt.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; market; economy; crisis; recession; price; production reform; trade finance; nursery Ireland; fading textile buyer; lendable funds; Trade finance; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Economic recession; Global; Europe; Asia and Pacific; Eastern Europe; Baltics
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, September 2002
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.
Keywords:
IRB; market; balance sheet variable; TFP growth; capital; IMF research; factor input; monetary policy transmission mechanisms; sustainability issue; portfolio equity stock; Total factor productivity; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Stock markets; Capital flows; Growth accounting; Global; Asia and Pacific; Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Asia