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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 9 of 9 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Environmental Economics: Government Policy x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Greenflation or Greensulation? The Case of Fuel Excise Taxes and Oil Price Pass-through
JaeBin Ahn
Can a carbon tax reduce inflation volatility? Focusing on fuel excise taxes, this paper provides systematic evidence on their role as a shock absorber that helps mitigating the impact of global oil price shocks on domestic inflation. Exploiting substantial variation in fuel tax rates across 28 OECD countries over the period from 2014 to 2021, a simple idea that a per-unit, specific tax takes up a portion of the product price immune to cost shocks goes a long way toward explaining heterogeneity in the degree of oil price pass-through into domestic inflation across countries. A back-of-the-envelope calculation from the estimation results supports its quantitative significance---differences in fuel tax rates could explain about 30% of the variation in annual headline CPI inflation rates observed between the U.S. and U.K. during the 2021 inflation surge.
Keywords:
Fuel excise tax; gasoline tax; diesel tax; oil price pass-through; retail fuel price; inflation; greenflation; greensulation; inflation volatility; headline CPI inflation rates; oil price shock; back-of-the-envelope calculation; Oil prices; Fuel tax; Fuel prices; Excises; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Carbon Prices and Inflation in the Euro Area
Maximilian Konradt
,
Thomas McGregor
, and
Frederik G Toscani
What is the effect of carbon pricing on inflation? This paper shows empirically that the consequences of the European Union’s Emission Trading System (ETS) and national carbon taxation on inflation have been limited in the euro area, so far. This result is supported by analysis based on a panel local projections approach, as well as event studies based on individual countries. Our estimates suggest that carbon taxes raised the price of energy but had limited effects on overall consumer prices. Since future climate policy will need to be much more ambitious compared to what has been observed so far, including the need for larger increases in carbon prices, possible non-linearities might make extrapolating from historical results difficult. We thus also use input-output tables to simulate the mechanical effect of a carbon tax consistent with the EU’s ‘Fit-for-55’ commitments on inflation. The required increase of effective carbon prices from around 40 Euro per ton of CO2 in 2021 to around 150 Euro by 2030 could raise annual euro area inflation by between 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points. It is worth noting that the energy price increases caused by the rise in the effective carbon price to 150 Euro is substantially smaller than the energy price spike seen in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine.
Keywords:
Green transition; carbon taxes; climate policy; inflation; energy price spike; EU ETS price; European Union's Emission Trading System; headline inflation; EU ETS; price level; Carbon tax; Greenhouse gas emissions; Consumer prices; Europe; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Policies to Address Climate Change: Ukraine
Geoffrey N. Keim
and
Mariia Sydorovych
While the near-term priorities are national defense and macroeconomic stabilization, gradually incorporating climate change considerations into policy design will become increasingly important after the war and into the long term. As regards climate change adaptation, investments will need to be made with a view to maintain long-term debt sustainability. Policy reforms will also be needed to move to a low-emissions economy to deliver international commitments and achieve the broader objective of European Union accession. Potential exists to deliver on climate priorities alongside implementing recovery and reconstruction efforts, while maintaining macroeconomic stability, and ensuring social protection and equity.
Keywords:
Ukraine; climate change; carbon pricing; debt sustainability; address climate change; climate change adaptation; B. GHG emission; long-term debt sustainability; policy reform; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate finance; Europe
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Energy Transition and Geoeconomic Fragmentation: Implications for Climate Scenario Design
Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini
,
Pierpaolo Grippa
,
William Oman
, and
Sha Yu
The transition to a low-carbon economy, which is needed to mitigate climate change and meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals, has been affected by the supply chain and energy supply disruptions that originated during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent energy crisis and exacerbation of geopolitical tensions. These developments, and the broader context of the ongoing “polycrisis,” can affect future decarbonization scenarios. This reflects three main factors: (1) pullbacks in climate mitigation policies and increased carbon lock-in in fossil fuel infrastructure and policymaking; (2) the decreasing likelihood of continuous cost reduction in renewable energy technologies; and (3) the likely intensification of macroeconomic shocks amid increasing geoeconomic fragmentation, and the associated policy responses. In this context, the note assesses the implications of the polycrisis for hypothetical scenarios used to assess climate-related financial risks. Following an analysis of the channels through which these effects are likely to materialize over short- and long-term horizons and some policy implications, the note proposes potential adjustments to the design of the climate scenarios used by financial institutions, central banks, and financial sector supervisors and regulators within their risk management frameworks.
Keywords:
Climate scenarios; polycrisis; climate risks; carbon lock-in; risk assessment; geoeconomic fragmentation; energy transition; energy security; disorderly transition; trade multilateralism; fossil fuel development; IMF staff climate note; IMF staff climate NOTE 2023/003; climate scenario; Renewable energy; Climate policy; Climate change; Non-renewable resources; Global; Central America; Caribbean
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Structural Reforms to Accelerate Growth, Ease Policy Trade-offs, and Support the Green Transition in Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Mrs. Nina Budina
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
,
Ms. Florence Jaumotte
,
Andrea Medici
,
Augustus J Panton
,
Marina M. Tavares
, and
Bella Yao
In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, emerging market and developing economies are grappling with economic scarring, social tension, and reduced policy space. Policy actions are already urgently needed to boost growth in the near term and support the ongoing green transition. At the same time, high public debt and persistently high inflation have constrained policy space, posing difficult policy trade-offs. This Staff Discussion Note focuses on emerging market and developing economies and proposes a framework for prioritization, packaging, and sequencing of macrostructural reforms to accelerate growth, alleviate policy trade-offs, and support the green transition. The note shows that prioritizing the removal of the most binding constraints on economic activity, bundling reforms (governance, business deregulation, and external sector reforms), and appropriate sequencing of other reforms (such as labor market and credit sector reforms) can help front-load reform gains. In emerging market and developing economies with large initial structural gaps, the estimated output effects of such a major reform package are sizable—about 4 percent in two years and 8 percent in four years. Achieving higher growth and lower absolute carbon emissions over time requires a well-designed strategy that includes both macrostructural and green reforms.
Keywords:
policy trade-off; climate policy stringency; policy space; policy action; developing economy; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Structural reforms; Climate policy; Greenhouse gas emissions; Global; Caribbean
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Impact of High Energy Prices on Germany’s Potential Output
Miss Yushu Chen
,
Ting Lan
,
Ms. Aiko Mineshima
, and
Jing Zhou
The surge in energy prices since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reduced the energy-intensive sector’s production in Germany, although the non-energy intensive sector’s production has held up thanks in part to firms’ efforts to improve energy efficiency. Energy prices are expected to remain elevated in the foreseeable future, compared to pre-war levels, adversely affecting firms’ productivity and thus lowering Germany’s potential output. Economic modeling suggests that this effect could be around 1¼ percent of GDP in staff’s baseline, with some uncertainty around this estimate, depending on the ultimate magnitude of the energy price shock and the degree to which increased energy efficiency can mitigate it. Policies can promote effective adjustment to the shock by increasing productivity and maintaining strong price incentives to conserve energy and invest in renewable energy production.
Keywords:
Germany; energy prices; energy efficiency; productivity; potential output; potential growth; directed technical change; price effect; price signal; surge in energy price; effect favor; optimization problem; energy efficiency response; Energy conservation; Fuel prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Market for Brown Assets To Make Finance Green
Mr. Domenico Fanizza
and
Laura Cerami
This paper proposes a market solution to enhance the role of the financial sector in the green transition. Developing a secondary market for “brown exposures” can allow banks to dispose more quickly of stranded assets thereby increasing their capacity to finance green investments. Furthermore, newly created instruments – the brown assets backed securities (B-ABS) - can expand the diversification opportunities for specialized green investors and, thus, attract additional resources for new green investments. The experience of the secondary market for non-performing loans suggests that targeted policy and regulatory measures can simultaneously support the development of the secondary market for brown assets and green finance.
Keywords:
Green finance; financial innovation; greenium; financial sector; climate change; market solution; experience of the secondary market; green transition; policy simulation; Climate finance; Nonperforming loans; Securities markets; Climate policy; Global; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
The Managing Director’s Update on the FY 2023 Work Program of the Executive Board
International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
The membership is facing significant challenges, including high inflation, rising food and energy insecurity, elevated debt levels, tightening financial conditions, volatile capital flows and exchange rates, and intensifying geopolitical fragmentation. To this end, the Executive Board Work Program focuses on policy responses and bilateral and multilateral advice to stabilize the global economy and build resilience, critical financial assistance to those countries most affected by these shocks, and capacity development support to help implement policy advice. More than ever, the Fund has a key role to play in promoting international cooperation and collaborative solutions to shared challenges, including those related to climate, digitalization, and inclusion.
Keywords:
surveillance policy agenda; fund policy; surveillance agenda; executive board executive board meeting; resilience agenda; IMF lending toolkit; Digitalization; Development strategy; Climate policy; Global
Cover World Economic Outlook, October 2022
World Economic Outlook, October 2022
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Abstract

Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades. The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024. Monetary policy should stay the course to restore price stability, and fiscal policy should aim to alleviate the cost-of-living pressures while maintaining a sufficiently tight stance aligned with monetary policy. Structural reforms can further support the fight against inflation by improving productivity and easing supply constraints, while multilateral cooperation is necessary for fast-tracking the green energy transition and preventing fragmentation.

Keywords:
growth; growth outlook; global recession; adverse scenario; output gap; output losses; COVID-19; pandemic; scarring; inflation; core inflation; inflation expectations; monetary policy; financial conditions; debt distress; sovereign spreads; fiscal policy; disinflation; food and energy prices; Russian gas supplies; pandemic; war in Ukraine; current account; dollar strength; capital flows; China real estate sector; fragmentation; multilateral cooperation; climate change; climate policies; Wages; wage dynamics; wage-price spirals; inflation; labor markets; expectations; monetary policy; interest rates; nominal wages; real wages; unemployment; tightness; supply-demand imbalances; COVID-19; pandemic; recovery; de-anchoring; Phillips curve; pass-through; demand shocks; supply shocks; supply-chain shocks; sectoral shocks; monetary policy shocks; cost-push shocks; expectations formation; rational expectations; adaptive expectations; adaptive learning; historical episodes; advanced economies; emerging market economies; climate policy; monetary policy; inflation; energy transition; carbon pricing; macroeconomic model; GMMET; output-inflation tradeoff; GHG taxes; green subsidies; green investment; inflation expectation; price inflation; wage-price spiral; wage growth; headline inflation; Carbon tax; Greenhouse gas emissions; Global; Europe; Caribbean; Middle East and Central Asia; Africa