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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 18 items for :

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  • Energy: General x
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Cover Staff Climate Notes
Energy Transition and Geoeconomic Fragmentation: Implications for Climate Scenario Design
Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini
,
Pierpaolo Grippa
,
William Oman
, and
Sha Yu
The transition to a low-carbon economy, which is needed to mitigate climate change and meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals, has been affected by the supply chain and energy supply disruptions that originated during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent energy crisis and exacerbation of geopolitical tensions. These developments, and the broader context of the ongoing “polycrisis,” can affect future decarbonization scenarios. This reflects three main factors: (1) pullbacks in climate mitigation policies and increased carbon lock-in in fossil fuel infrastructure and policymaking; (2) the decreasing likelihood of continuous cost reduction in renewable energy technologies; and (3) the likely intensification of macroeconomic shocks amid increasing geoeconomic fragmentation, and the associated policy responses. In this context, the note assesses the implications of the polycrisis for hypothetical scenarios used to assess climate-related financial risks. Following an analysis of the channels through which these effects are likely to materialize over short- and long-term horizons and some policy implications, the note proposes potential adjustments to the design of the climate scenarios used by financial institutions, central banks, and financial sector supervisors and regulators within their risk management frameworks.
Keywords:
Climate scenarios; polycrisis; climate risks; carbon lock-in; risk assessment; geoeconomic fragmentation; energy transition; energy security; disorderly transition; trade multilateralism; fossil fuel development; IMF staff climate note; IMF staff climate NOTE 2023/003; climate scenario; Renewable energy; Climate policy; Climate change; Non-renewable resources; Global; Central America; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guyana: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guyana
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Following the pandemic-induced recession in 2020, economic growth recovered in 2021, with non-oil GDP growth reaching 4.6 percent, despite being negatively impacted by floods. Inflation increased markedly since 2021 owing to the floods and supply-side disruptions, as well as continually rising fuel and food prices. Oil production increased and will ramp up substantially over the medium term.
Keywords:
IMF FSAP; Guyanese authorities; climate change policy framework; capital investment; anti-corruption framework; Oil; External sector statistics; Global; Caribbean
Cover Shifting Commodity Markets in a Globalized World
Shifting Commodity Markets in a Globalized World

Abstract

A survey of the complex and intertwined set of forces behind the various commodity markets and the interplay between these markets and the global economy. Summarizes a rich set of facts combined with in-depth analyses distillated in a nontechnical manner. Includes discussion of structural trends behind commodities markets, their future implications, and policy implications.

Keywords:
BOOK; price; metal; demand; oil price; natural gas; food security; commodities supercycle; metal market; food price; Natural gas sector; Oil; Metals; Non-renewable resources; Oil prices; Global; Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific; North America; price differential; mining research; energy market; Caribbean; South America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: 2014 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Press Release
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
KEY ISSUES Context: Solid growth in recent years, supported by high oil prices and output, has boosted living standards. This year, the economy is slowing down, in large part because of weaker domestic and external demand, and regional tensions. Inflation is expected to accelerate temporarily due to the devaluation of the tenge (February 2014). Enhancing the policy architecture and promoting a business environment unencumbered by the state remain key challenges for Kazakhstan to become a dynamic emerging market economy and ensure durable and balanced long-term growth. The recent reappointment of Prime Minister Massimov was accompanied by the authorities’ commitment to speeding up structural reforms. In this context, the government is strengthening its links with the multilateral development banks (MDBs). The May 29 signing of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), with Russia and Belarus, is not expected to have near-term economic effects; medium-term effects will depend on how the Union’s rules and regulations will be implemented. Focus of consultation and key recommendations: Amid uncertain external and domestic environments, the consultation focused on policy measures to mitigate shocks and achieve the authorities’ short- and medium-term objectives, in particular: (i) restoring confidence and stability in the post-devaluation environment; (ii) resolving the nonperforming loans (NPL) problem, in line with the recent FSAP recommendations; (iii) bolstering the monetary and fiscal policy frameworks, as recommended last year; and (iv) accelerating structural reforms, including the implementation of industrialization and diversification policies carefully and transparently. Previous consultation: During the 2013 Article IV Consultation, Directors encouraged the authorities to take advantage of the positive outlook to strengthen the macroeconomic policy architecture, including by (i) showing greater determination to addressing the high level of NPLs; (ii) following through on the planned introduction of a new policy interest rate to enhance the transmission mechanism of monetary policy; and (iii) revamping the medium-term fiscal framework through improved coverage and transparency. Since then, the authorities have been more resolute in dealing with the NPL problem. However, progress in strengthening the monetary and fiscal policy frameworks has been slow.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; fiscal policy framework; exchange rate; government
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
KEY ISSUES Context: Solid growth in recent years, supported by high oil prices and output, has boosted living standards. This year, the economy is slowing down, in large part because of weaker domestic and external demand, and regional tensions. Inflation is expected to accelerate temporarily due to the devaluation of the tenge (February 2014). Enhancing the policy architecture and promoting a business environment unencumbered by the state remain key challenges for Kazakhstan to become a dynamic emerging market economy and ensure durable and balanced long-term growth. The recent reappointment of Prime Minister Massimov was accompanied by the authorities’ commitment to speeding up structural reforms. In this context, the government is strengthening its links with the multilateral development banks (MDBs). The May 29 signing of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), with Russia and Belarus, is not expected to have near-term economic effects; medium-term effects will depend on how the Union’s rules and regulations will be implemented. Focus of consultation and key recommendations: Amid uncertain external and domestic environments, the consultation focused on policy measures to mitigate shocks and achieve the authorities’ short- and medium-term objectives, in particular: (i) restoring confidence and stability in the post-devaluation environment; (ii) resolving the nonperforming loans (NPL) problem, in line with the recent FSAP recommendations; (iii) bolstering the monetary and fiscal policy frameworks, as recommended last year; and (iv) accelerating structural reforms, including the implementation of industrialization and diversification policies carefully and transparently. Previous consultation: During the 2013 Article IV Consultation, Directors encouraged the authorities to take advantage of the positive outlook to strengthen the macroeconomic policy architecture, including by (i) showing greater determination to addressing the high level of NPLs; (ii) following through on the planned introduction of a new policy interest rate to enhance the transmission mechanism of monetary policy; and (iii) revamping the medium-term fiscal framework through improved coverage and transparency. Since then, the authorities have been more resolute in dealing with the NPL problem. However, progress in strengthening the monetary and fiscal policy frameworks has been slow.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; fiscal policy framework; exchange rate; government; private sector; near-term fiscal policy stance; headline inflation; banking sector recovery; Exchange rates; Oil; Exports; Central Asia; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Europe
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, June 2007
Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo
IMF research summaries on (1) oil market developments and the global economy (by Selim Elekdag), and (2) credit booms (by Marco Terrones); country study on India (by Helene Poirson); call for papers for November 2007 Jacques Polak Eighth Annual Research Conference; listing of contents of Vol. 54, Issue No. 2 of IMF Staff Papers; listing of recent IMF Working Papers; and listing of visiting scholars at the IMF during April-June 2007
Keywords:
IRB; credit boom; draft paper; work-in-progress draft; market; policy relevance; proposal to the Program Committee; Credit booms; Oil prices; Oil; Exchange rates; Credit; Global; Central and Eastern Europe; Asia and Pacific; Middle East and Central Asia; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Russian Federation: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; FSU country; CIS country; oil revenue; oil price; consumption rule
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Russian Federation: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Russia’s large oil and gas reserves play a key role in its economic development. As with many other large oil exporters, Russia’s energy wealth is also posing numerous challenges to macroeconomic management. Although fiscal policy has saved a large part of the oil windfall in the Oil Stabilization Fund (OSF), this has not been guided by a consistent long-term framework. The framework is illustrated with numerical simulations of different fiscal spending rules that are consistent with sustainable paths of consumption out of oil and gas wealth over time.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; FSU country; CIS country; oil revenue; oil price; consumption rule; w Russia; Oil prices; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Exports; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for India reports that rapid growth is presenting new challenges to macroeconomic policy, although ensuring the sustainability of this growth requires broad-based fiscal and structural reforms. Higher world oil prices present risks in both the near and medium term. In the short-term, higher oil prices combined with robust domestic demand threaten to push inflation higher. Over the longer-term, permanently higher oil prices can depress growth and widen fiscal imbalances, in particular if the economy is not allowed to adjust to new price levels.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; India; price; government; liberalization; state; oil price; borrowing regime; price liberalization; government of India; credit growth; inflation differential; country authorities; Oil prices; Credit; Inflation; Oil; Loans; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Kazakhstan underlies growth of the non-oil sector, fiscal management of oil wealth, and bank credit growth. The share of tradables in the non-oil sector has declined significantly, both in terms of value added and employment, while many nontradable activities, especially services and construction, have expanded. Kazakhstan can sustain non-oil deficits of more than 5 percent of GDP in the near term without reducing the value of oil wealth. Recent developments in the pattern of bank lending and borrowing have led to increased exposure to the property sector and international financial markets.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; tenge; exchange rate; deficit; revenue; purchasing power parity; oil sector; oil wealth; bank lending; sector growth; growth path; CIS economy; Real exchange rates; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Bank credit; Global