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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 3 of 3 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Heterogeneous Effects of Uncertainty on Trade
Ibrahim Nana
,
Rasmané Ouedraogo
, and
Sampawende J Tapsoba
This paper empirically investigates the relationship between uncertainty and trade. We use a gravity model for 143 countries over the 1980-2021 period to assess the impact of uncertainty on bilateral trade. We confirm that, in general, uncertainty has a negative impact on trade. The findings suggest that a one standard deviation increase in global uncertainty is associated with a decline in bilateral trade by 4.5 percent, with fuel and industrial products trade being the most impacted. This negative impact is observed for uncertainty on both sides of the border, with a higher impact of uncertainty from the importing country. The article goes deeper into the analysis and shows that deeper trade integration (horizontal integration) mitigates the negative impact of uncertainty on trade. In contrast, higher participation in global value chains (vertical integration) amplifies the negative effect of uncertainty on trade. We find that geopolitical tensions amplify the deterrent effect of uncertainty on trade. Finally, the result is heterogeneous across income levels, regions, and resource endowment: (a) uncertainty has a negative impact on bilateral trade between Emerging Markets and Developing Economies and Advanced Economies; however, (b) at the regional level, Africa and Europe’s intraregional trade decrease as uncertainty surges. (c) Evidence shows that non-resources-rich countries are more at risk.
Keywords:
Trade; Uncertainty; Geopolitics; Global Value Chains; Gravity model; trade decrease; sectoral trade; bilateral trade; importing country; resource endowment; Plurilateral trade; Exports; Imports; Gravity models; COVID-19; Global; Middle East; Europe; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Structural Reforms and Firms’ Productivity: Evidence from Developing Countries
Wilfried A. Kouamé
and
Mr. Sampawende J Tapsoba
This paper assesses the effects of structural reforms on firm-level productivity for 37 developing countries from 2006 to 2014 period. It takes advantage of the IMF Monitoring of Fund Arrangements dataset for reform indexes and the World Bank Enterprise Surveys for firm-level productivity. The paper highlights the following results. Structural reforms such as financial, fiscal, real sector, and trade reforms, significantly improve firm-level productivity. Interestingly, real sector reforms have the most sizeable effects on firm-level productivity. The relationship between structural reforms and firm-level productivity is nonlinear and shaped by some firms’ characteristics such as the financial access, the distortionary environment, and the size of firms. The pace of structural reforms matters since being a “strong reformer” is associated with a clear productivity dividend for firms. Finally, except for financial and trade reforms, all structural reforms under consideration are bilaterally complementary in improving firm-level productivity. These findings are robust to several sensitivity checks.
Keywords:
WP; standard deviation; firm-level productivity; structural reform; productivity gain; Structural Reforms; Productivity; Developing countries; firm level; growth potential; firms benefit; productivity gains; firms' characteristic; Labor productivity; Business environment; Global; Middle East; East Asia; North Africa; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Stand-By Arrangement: Review Under the Emergency Financing Mechanism
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the two-year Stand-By-Arrangement for Ukraine under the Emergency Financing Mechanism. Output growth is turning negative on the back of a large terms-of-trade shock and the ongoing credit crunch. The deterioration of the economic and financial situation is contributing to an increase in program implementation risks. Policy implementation is in line with the program. The authorities have introduced a flexible exchange rate regime, tightened monetary policy, and have taken measures to contain the 2008 government deficit.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; hryvnia; bank share; bank recapitalization scheme; bank recapitalization program; public finance; goods terms of trade; terms-of-trade shock; exchange rate volatility; credit portfolio; Exchange rate flexibility; Exchange rates; Currencies; Exchange rate arrangements; Exchange rate policy; Western Europe; Global