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Europe > Ukraine

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Cover Staff Climate Notes
Energy Transition and Geoeconomic Fragmentation: Implications for Climate Scenario Design
Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini
,
Pierpaolo Grippa
,
William Oman
, and
Sha Yu
The transition to a low-carbon economy, which is needed to mitigate climate change and meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals, has been affected by the supply chain and energy supply disruptions that originated during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent energy crisis and exacerbation of geopolitical tensions. These developments, and the broader context of the ongoing “polycrisis,” can affect future decarbonization scenarios. This reflects three main factors: (1) pullbacks in climate mitigation policies and increased carbon lock-in in fossil fuel infrastructure and policymaking; (2) the decreasing likelihood of continuous cost reduction in renewable energy technologies; and (3) the likely intensification of macroeconomic shocks amid increasing geoeconomic fragmentation, and the associated policy responses. In this context, the note assesses the implications of the polycrisis for hypothetical scenarios used to assess climate-related financial risks. Following an analysis of the channels through which these effects are likely to materialize over short- and long-term horizons and some policy implications, the note proposes potential adjustments to the design of the climate scenarios used by financial institutions, central banks, and financial sector supervisors and regulators within their risk management frameworks.
Keywords:
Climate scenarios; polycrisis; climate risks; carbon lock-in; risk assessment; geoeconomic fragmentation; energy transition; energy security; disorderly transition; trade multilateralism; fossil fuel development; IMF staff climate note; IMF staff climate NOTE 2023/003; climate scenario; Renewable energy; Climate policy; Climate change; Non-renewable resources; Global; Central America; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Chasing the Sun and Catching the Wind: Energy Transition and Electricity Prices in Europe
Mr. Serhan Cevik
and
Keitaro Ninomiya
European power markets are in the midst of unprecedented changes, with a record-breaking surge in energy prices.This paper investigates the impact of green power resources on the level and volatility of wholesale electricity prices at a granular level, using monthly observations for a panel of 24 European countries over the period 2014–2021 and alternative estimation methods including a panel quantile regression approach. We find that renewable energy is associated with a significant reduction in wholesale electricity prices in Europe, with an average impact of 0.6 percent for each 1 percentage points increase in renewable share. We also find evidence for a nonlinear effect—that is, higher the share of renewables, the greater its effect on electricity prices. On the other hand, while quantile estimation results are mixed with regards to the impact of renewables on the volatility of electricity prices, we obtain evidence that renewable energy has a negative effect on volatility at the highest quantiles. Overall, our analysis indicates that policy reforms can help accelerate the green transition while minimizing the volatility in electricity prices.
Keywords:
Energy transition; renewables; electiricity prices; panel quantile regression; Europe; electricity price; quantile estimation result; electricity generation; dampening effect; Electricity; Renewable energy; Renewable resources; Oil prices; Global
Cover Shifting Commodity Markets in a Globalized World
Shifting Commodity Markets in a Globalized World

Abstract

A survey of the complex and intertwined set of forces behind the various commodity markets and the interplay between these markets and the global economy. Summarizes a rich set of facts combined with in-depth analyses distillated in a nontechnical manner. Includes discussion of structural trends behind commodities markets, their future implications, and policy implications.

Keywords:
BOOK; price; metal; demand; oil price; natural gas; food security; commodities supercycle; metal market; food price; Natural gas sector; Oil; Metals; Non-renewable resources; Oil prices; Global; Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific; North America; price differential; mining research; energy market; Caribbean; South America
Cover Fiscal Policy Formulation and Implementation in Oil-Producing Countries
Fiscal Policy Formulation and Implementation in Oil-Producing Countries
Mr. Jeffrey M. Davis
,
Ms. Annalisa Fedelino
, and
Mr. Rolando Ossowski

Abstract

Countries with large oil resources can benefit substantially from them. However, despite their huge natural resources, many oil producers have had disappointing growth, widespread poverty, and continuing vulnerability to oil price and other external shocks. Fiscal policy can play a central role indetermining the extent to which a country benefits from its oil wealth. This book brings together studies that provide analysis and findings on fiscal policy issues in oil-producing countries from a diverse international perspective. A key focus for the authors is how to manage oil resources in a way that contributes to a stable macroeconomic environment, sustainable growth, and poverty reduction.

Keywords:
BOOK; government; price; spot price; oil revenue; national government; oil price risk; oil fund; product price subsidy; Oil; Oil prices; gas and mining taxes; Global; Asia and Pacific; Middle East; Africa; Western Europe; Caribbean
Cover A Study Guide to The Fabric of Reform
A Study Guide to The Fabric of Reform
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This guide is designed to facilitate classroom use of The Fabric of Reform, a 30-minute educational video created by the International Monetary Fund. It is intended for use with students in economics and international relations courses at the secondary and postsecondary levels.

Keywords:
MTU; student; access report; CFA franc; country profile; country; IMF's contribution; rates to the rate; free market work; countries fare; Mali's government; classroom use; market forces; Agricultural commodities; Monetary unions; Currencies; Natural resources; Africa; West Africa; Global; Trade policy