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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Georgian economy has performed strongly in 2022 as adverse spillovers expected from the war in Ukraine have not materialized thus far. Buoyant tourism revenues, a surge in war-related immigration and financial inflows, and a rise in transit trade through Georgia have lifted growth and fiscal revenues, strengthened the current account balance and the lari, and supported reserve accumulation. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting still high commodity prices and strong domestic demand. Growth and inflation are expected to moderate in 2023 with subsiding external inflows, less favorable global economic and financial conditions, smaller fiscal deficits, and a sufficiently tight monetary policy stance. In 2024, growth is projected to converge to its potential rate and inflation is forecast to fall to the NBG’s target.
Ms. Anja Baum
,
Mr. Paulo A Medas
,
Alberto Soler
, and
Mouhamadou Sy
Ensuring that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are efficient and managed prudently is important for economic and social reasons. It is also crucial to contain fiscal risks and reduce the burden on taxpayers from recurrent and large bailouts. Governments need to develop stronger capacity to monitor and mitigate the risks from SOEs. We present a risk tool to benchmark the performance of SOEs relative to their peers and assess their vulnerabilities, including through stress tests. A strategy to mitigate risks requires the right incentives for managers to perform and for government agencies to conduct effective oversight. Incorporating SOEs in overall fiscal targets would promote greater fiscal discipline and transparency.
Ms. Anja Baum
,
Clay Hackney
,
Mr. Paulo A Medas
, and
Mouhamadou Sy
State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are present in key sectors of the economies around the world. While they can provide an important public service, there is widespread concern that their activities are negatively affected by corruption. However, there is limited cross-country analysis on the costs of corruption for SOEs. We present new evidence on how corruption affects the performance of SOEs using firm level data across a large number of countries. One striking result is that SOEs perform as well as private firms in core sectors when corruption is low. Taking advantage of a novel database reforms, we also show that SOE governance reforms can generate significant performance gains.
Christine J. Richmond
,
Ms. Dora Benedek
,
Ezequiel Cabezon
,
Bobana Cegar
,
Mr. Peter Dohlman
,
Michelle Hassine
,
Beata Jajko
,
Piotr Kopyrski
,
Maksym Markevych
,
Mr. Jacques A Miniane
,
Mr. Francisco J Parodi
,
Gabor Pula
,
Mr. James Roaf
,
Min Kyu Song
,
Mariya Sviderskaya
,
Ms. Rima A Turk
, and
Mr. Sebastian Weber
The Central, Eastern, and South Eastern European (CESEE) region is ripe for a reassessment of the role of the state in economic activity. The rapid income convergence with Western Europe of the early 2000s was not always equally shared across society, and it has now slowed dramatically in many countries of the region.
Mr. Serhan Cevik
Literature on whether government spending crowds out or crowds in the private sector is large, but still without an unambiguous conclusion. Using firm-level data from Ukraine, this paper provides a granular empirical investigation to disentangle the impact of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on private firm investment in Ukraine—a large transition economy. Controlling for firm characteristics and systematic differences across sectors, the results indicate that the SOE concentration in a given sector has a statistically significant negative effect on private fixed capital formation, and that the impact of SOEs is stronger in those industries in which SOEs have a more dominant presence. These findings imply that private firms operating in sectors with a high level of SOE concentration invest systematically less than businesses that are not competing directly with SOEs.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Reform of the SOE sector is a high priority for the government. The recently published “National Strategy 2020” promises “state property management reform,” and related reforms in areas such as the organization of government agencies, public procurement, competition policy, and corporate regulation. Reform of the SOE sector also features prominently in the government’s 2014 Coalition Agreement. High levels of direct and indirect state support is adding to the significant fiscal risks emanating from SOE sector, a problem that is being exacerbated by the severe economic situation. In addition, weaknesses in the management of the state’s investment portfolio need to be addressed to help to significantly increase the value of the government’s portfolio of state assets. This will only be possible through improved oversight and governance of the SOE sector.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This paper discusses various public finance management reforms required for state-owned enterprises (SOEs), which is high priority of the government. High levels of direct and indirect state support are adding to the significant risks emanating from the SOE sector, a problem that is being exacerbated by the severe economic situation. There is a need to establish proper corporate governance arrangements through improving performance management frameworks and making SEOs accountable for poor performance, and reinforcing financial and fiscal discipline. Establishing independent Boards of Directors to perform stewardship and oversight function for public sector entities and improving transparency and reporting to the parliament and general public should form the cornerstone of the reform strategy for all SEOs.
Ms. Katrin Elborgh-Woytek
and
Mr. Mark W Lewis
The paper examines the recent privatization experience in Ukraine in the context of the streamlining of Fund structural conditionality. A particular focus is the shift from privatization-related conditionality based on quantitative targets to conditionality aimed at strengthening privatization procedures. The paper examines how this shift was managed in Ukraine and discusses the challenges of applying conditionality to privatization procedures and the implications for country ownership.