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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 6 of 6 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Georgia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper explores drivers of inflation and monetary policy in Georgia. Inflation spiked in Georgia following the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. A positive output gap indicates that high demand is generating inflationary pressure in the economy. Estimates suggest tighter monetary policy in 2021 helped significantly lower peak inflation in 2022. One response to uncertainty is for monetary policy makers to act more cautiously – responding less vigorously with monetary policy to shocks. Given the challenges in managing inflation in a highly dollarized, small open-economy prone to large external shocks, it is important to look at the drivers of inflation in Georgia, the monetary policy stance including the natural rate, the transmission mechanism including the impact of dollarization, and the appropriate monetary policy path going forward. Using a range of approaches, IMF establish that monetary policy in Georgia is effective, that it is close to neutral, and that heightened uncertainty supports a gradual policy normalization.
Keywords:
commodity import price index; Georgia population projection; trend inflation; IMF staff calculation; inflation projection; Inflation; Labor markets; Unemployment; Employment; Central Asia; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era
Laurence M. Ball
,
Mr. Daniel Leigh
, and
Ms. Prachi Mishra
This paper analyzes the dramatic rise in U.S. inflation since 2020, which we decompose into a rise in core inflation as measured by the weighted median inflation rate and deviations of headline inflation from core. We explain the rise in core with two factors, the tightening of the labor market as captured by the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment, and the pass-through into core from past shocks to headline inflation. The headline shocks themselves are explained largely by increases in energy prices and by supply chain problems as captured by backlogs of orders for goods and services. Looking forward, we simulate the future path of inflation for alternative paths of the unemployment rate, focusing on the projections of Federal Reserve policymakers in which unemployment rises only modestly to 4.4 percent. We find that this unemployment path returns inflation to near the Fed’s target only under optimistic assumptions about both inflation expectations and the Beveridge curve relating the unemployment and vacancy rates. Under less benign assumptions about these factors, the inflation rate remains well above target unless unemployment rises by more than the Fed projects.
Keywords:
Inflation; Covid; Fed project; unemployment path; Fed's target; inflation gap; inflation expectation; Unemployment rate; Unemployment; Labor markets; COVID-19; Baltics
Cover IMF Working Papers
Second-Round Effects of Oil Price Shocks — Implications for Europe’s Inflation Outlook
Chikako Baba
and
Mr. Jaewoo Lee
The pass-through effects of oil price shocks on wage and consumer price inflation vary with the states or structural characteristics of an economy. The effects have declined over time in Europe and been higher in emerging European economies than in advanced economies. The pass-through to wages is found to have been higher when the prevailing level of inflation was higher or when the degrees of unionization and centralized bargaining were higher, while lower under a higher credibility of monetary policy. The effects of oil price shocks on core inflation and inflation expectations are consistent with their effects on wages.
Keywords:
Second-round effects; oil prices; wages; inflation; pass-through; monetary policy; impulse response.; oil price shock; inflation expectation; pass-through effect; oil price inflation; consumer price inflation; Unemployment rate; Nominal effective exchange rate; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey: Volume 28, Issue 11
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Following are edited excerpts from an address given by IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus at the twenty-fourth annual conference of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) in Lisbon, Portugal, on May 25. The full text is available on the IMF’s website (http://www.imf.org).
Keywords:
SV; investor confidence; country; labor market legislation; SDR; IMF's Research Department; IMF survey; IMF staff country; IMF publication service; Defense spending; Metal prices; Copper; Unemployment; Total expenditures; Middle East; Global; Western Hemisphere; Europe; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff papers, Volume 45 No. 2
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper analyzes contagion and volatility with imperfect credit markets. The paper interprets contagion effects as an increase in the volatility of shocks impinging on the economy. The implications of this approach are analyzed in a model in which domestic banks borrow at a premium on world capital markets, and domestic producers borrow at a premium from domestic banks. Financial spreads depend on a markup that compensates lenders, in particular, for the expected cost of contract enforcement. Higher volatility increases financial spreads and the producers’ cost of capital.
Keywords:
SP; paper number; EU country; monetary policy; priority mail delivery; Visa credit cards; dollar wage; Public sector; Unemployment; Wages; Minimum wages; Job destruction; Baltics; Eastern Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Labor Market Institutions and Unemployment Dynamics in Transition Economies
Mr. Pietro Garibaldi
and
Ms. Zuzana Brixiova
This paper studies interactions between labor market institutions and unemployment dynamics in transition economies. It presents a dynamic matching model in which state sector firms endogenously shed labor and private job creation takes time. Two main conclusions arises. First, higher unemployment benefits increase steady-state unemployment, and, during the transition, they reduce the fall in real wages and speed up closure of state enterprises. Second, higher minimum wages can theoretically speed up the elimination of state sector jobs without affecting steady-state unemployment. These results are broadly consistent with existing evidence on the dynamics of unemployment and real wages in transition economies.
Keywords:
WP; private sector; minimum wage; labor market; Unemployment; Transition Economies; Matching Models; state sector job; job-worker pair; replacement ratio; CEE economy; capital gain; private sector job; unemployment insurance system; reservation productivity; wage arrears; opportunity cost; private sector employment; sector job; Public sector; Minimum wages; Unemployment benefits; Productivity; Central and Eastern Europe