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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 33 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Heterogeneous Effects of Uncertainty on Trade
Ibrahim Nana
,
Rasmané Ouedraogo
, and
Sampawende J Tapsoba
This paper empirically investigates the relationship between uncertainty and trade. We use a gravity model for 143 countries over the 1980-2021 period to assess the impact of uncertainty on bilateral trade. We confirm that, in general, uncertainty has a negative impact on trade. The findings suggest that a one standard deviation increase in global uncertainty is associated with a decline in bilateral trade by 4.5 percent, with fuel and industrial products trade being the most impacted. This negative impact is observed for uncertainty on both sides of the border, with a higher impact of uncertainty from the importing country. The article goes deeper into the analysis and shows that deeper trade integration (horizontal integration) mitigates the negative impact of uncertainty on trade. In contrast, higher participation in global value chains (vertical integration) amplifies the negative effect of uncertainty on trade. We find that geopolitical tensions amplify the deterrent effect of uncertainty on trade. Finally, the result is heterogeneous across income levels, regions, and resource endowment: (a) uncertainty has a negative impact on bilateral trade between Emerging Markets and Developing Economies and Advanced Economies; however, (b) at the regional level, Africa and Europe’s intraregional trade decrease as uncertainty surges. (c) Evidence shows that non-resources-rich countries are more at risk.
Keywords:
Trade; Uncertainty; Geopolitics; Global Value Chains; Gravity model; trade decrease; sectoral trade; bilateral trade; importing country; resource endowment; Plurilateral trade; Exports; Imports; Gravity models; COVID-19; Global; Middle East; Europe; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Shifting and Steepening of Phillips Curves During the Pandemic Recovery: International Evidence and Some Theory
Tryggvi Gudmundsson
,
Chris Jackson
, and
Rafael A Portillo
We study the global inflation surge during the pandemic recovery and the implications for aggregate and sectoral Phillips curves. We provide evidence that Phillips curves shifted up and steepened across advanced economies, and that differences in the inflation response across sectors imply the relative price of goods has been pro-cyclical this time around rather than a-cyclical as during previous cycles. We show analytically that these three features emerge endogenously in a two-sector new-Keynesian model when we introduce unbalanced recoveries that run against a supply constraint in the goods sector. A calibrated exercise shows that the resulting changes to the output-inflation relation are quantitatively important and improve the model's ability to replicate the inflation surge during this period.
Keywords:
Inflation; Phillips Curves; COVID-19; inflation surge; output-inflation relation; sectoral Phillips curves; inflation response; goods price; Output gap; Business cycles; Economic recession; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Thirteenth Periodic Monitoring Report on The Status of Management Implementation Plans in Response to Board-Endorsed IEO Recommendations
International Monetary Fund. Office of Internal Audit
Overall, progress has been made since the Twelfth PMR on actions in response to eight IEO evaluations, with the pace of implementation being faster on actions October 31, 2023 THIRTEENTH PERIODIC MONITORING REPORT 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND contained in the MIP in Response to the Executive Board-Endorsed Categorization of Open Actions in Management Implementation Plans. It is also worth mentioning that many open actions depend on the implementation of some important reviews/key steps that are expected to be completed in or soon after December 2023, such as the Capacity Development (CD) Strategy Review, the issuance of a new CD Guidance Note, an update of the Small Developing States Staff Guidance Note (SDS-SGN), the Operational Guidance Note (OGN) on Program Design and Conditionality, and a Board paper on Bank-Fund collaboration.
Keywords:
IEO evaluation; transparency policy; IEO recommendation; strategy review; Thirteenth PMR; Institutional View on capital flows; Capital flows; COVID-19; Capital account; Global; East Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; Caribbean; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Working Papers
Revisiting Covid Scarring in Emerging Markets
Chris Jackson
and
Jason Lu
The Covid-19 pandemic is expected to result in large and persistent losses in economic output, known as scarring. These losses were expected to be more severe in Emerging Markets than in Advanced Economies. This paper examines the impact of Covid on output in Emerging Markets so far and its implications for projections of economic scarring. While Covid has had a material impact on activity, the recovery has been stronger than initially expected. We find that these positive data surprises have over time been treated increasingly as transitory rather than a signal for the state of scarring. Second, we show that the composition of output losses has been qualitatively different from past last shocks. History suggests that the main driver of scarring is weak productivity. Covid losses, however, have so far been more skewed to employment with a smaller than usual impact on productivity. We argue that these findings suggest that scarring, while substantial, may be ultimately less severe than initially feared, at least over the medium term. We provide alternative sets of medium-term projections to indicate potential magnitudes.
Keywords:
COVID-19; scarring; medium-term output; Emerging Markets; output loss; GDP growth data; revisiting Covid; POST-Covid GDP loss; scarring estimate; Total factor productivity; Employment; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Wages; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of The Cumulative Access Limits Under The Rapid Financing Instrument and The Rapid Credit Facility
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The IMF extended the temporarily higher Cumulative Access Limits under the Fund’s Emergency Financing instruments, the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) under the General Resources Account, and the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust. This extension ensures that the Fund can continue to support member countries that accessed Fund’s emergency financing during COVID-19 pandemic in case of renewed emergency situations. The temporarily higher cumulative access limits under the RFI will be maintained until end-June 2024 when most RFI recipients will have repaid a significant part of their past emergency financing. The temporarily higher cumulative access limits under the RCF will be maintained until the completion of the 2024/25 comprehensive review of the Fund’s concessional facilities and financing, given the longer repayment schedule for RCF financing.
Keywords:
Cumulative Access Limits; Rapid Financing Instrument; Rapid Credit Facility; LND window; UCT-quality program; RCF ES window; FSW financing; RFI recipient; FSW relative; FSW experience; Emergency assistance; COVID-19; Balance of payments need; Credit; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Temporary Modifications to The Fund’s Annual and Cumulative Access Limits
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
,
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
In light of current elevated uncertainty and challenges in the global economy, the IMF has temporarily increased the limits on access in the Fund’s General Resources Account (GRA) to 200 percent of a member’s quota annually and 600 percent of quota cumulatively (from 145 and 435 percent of quota previously, respectively, last set in 2016). These changes will be in place for 12 months and, if circumstances warrant, the Executive Board may consider extending them further before their expiration. Regarding the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT), the paper proposes that the Executive Board reviews PRGT access limits once sufficient subsidy resources have been pledged to the PRGT. The impact on GRA resources and risks to the Fund from the proposed changes are expected to be manageable.
Keywords:
access limit; executive board review PRGT access; PRGT resource; PRGT access metrics; concessional financing arm; Credit; COVID-19; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Credit risk; Debt sustainability; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The 2020-2022 Inflation Surge Across Europe: A Phillips-Curve-Based Dissection
Chikako Baba
,
Mr. Romain A Duval
,
Ting Lan
, and
Petia Topalova
In 2021-22, inflation in Europe soared to multidecade highs, consistently exceeding policymakers’ forecasts and surprising with its wide cross-country dispersion. This paper analyzes the key drivers of the inflation surge in Europe and its variation across countries. The analysis highlights significant differences in Phillips curve parameters across Europe’s economies. Inflation is more sensitive to domestic slack and external price pressures in emerging European economies compared to their advanced counterparts, which contributed to a greater passthrough of global commodity price shocks into domestic prices, and, consequently, to larger increases in inflation rates. Across Europe, inflation also appears to have become increasingly backward looking and more sensitive to commodity price shocks since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This finding helps explain why conventional (Phillips curve) inflation models consistently underpredicted the 2021-2022 inflation surge, although it remains too early to conclude there has been a structural break in the inflation process.
Keywords:
inflation; Phillips curve; slack; external price; backward-looking; inflation surge; benchmark Phillips Curve estimation; inflation model; inflation dynamics; inflation development; Energy prices; Food prices; Inflation persistence; COVID-19; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Here Comes the Change: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors in Post-Pandemic Inflation in Europe
Mahir Binici
,
Samuele Centorrino
,
Mr. Serhan Cevik
, and
Gyowon Gwon
Global inflation has surged to 7.5 percent in August 2022, from an average of 2.1 percent in the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, threatening to become an entrenched phenomenon. This paper disentangles the confluence of contributing factors to the post-pandemic rise in consumer price inflation, using monthly data and a battery of econometric methodologies covering a panel of 30 European countries over the period 2002-2022. We find that while global factors continue to shape inflation dynamics throughout Europe, country-specific factors, including monetary and fiscal policy responses to the crisis, have also gained greater prominence in determining consumer price inflation during the pandemic period. Coupled with increasing persistence in inflation, these structural shifts call for significant and an extended period of monetary tightening and fiscal realignment.
Keywords:
Inflation; output gap; globalization; Phillips curve; dynamic factor model; fixed effect estimator; local projection method; inflation dynamics; consumer price inflation; fiscal policy response; inflation expectation; inflation process; commodity price; core CPI; Commodity prices; COVID-19; Energy prices; Global; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
FY2022—Output Cost Estimates and Budget Outturn
International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning
The paper presents highlights from the FY 2022 budget, followed by a discussion of outputs based on the Fund Thematic Categories and of inputs.
Keywords:
transparency policy; cloud capital equivalent spending; output cost estimate; major budget category; CD spending; Budget planning and preparation; Capital spending; COVID-19; Total expenditures; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era
Laurence M. Ball
,
Mr. Daniel Leigh
, and
Ms. Prachi Mishra
This paper analyzes the dramatic rise in U.S. inflation since 2020, which we decompose into a rise in core inflation as measured by the weighted median inflation rate and deviations of headline inflation from core. We explain the rise in core with two factors, the tightening of the labor market as captured by the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment, and the pass-through into core from past shocks to headline inflation. The headline shocks themselves are explained largely by increases in energy prices and by supply chain problems as captured by backlogs of orders for goods and services. Looking forward, we simulate the future path of inflation for alternative paths of the unemployment rate, focusing on the projections of Federal Reserve policymakers in which unemployment rises only modestly to 4.4 percent. We find that this unemployment path returns inflation to near the Fed’s target only under optimistic assumptions about both inflation expectations and the Beveridge curve relating the unemployment and vacancy rates. Under less benign assumptions about these factors, the inflation rate remains well above target unless unemployment rises by more than the Fed projects.
Keywords:
Inflation; Covid; Fed project; unemployment path; Fed's target; inflation gap; inflation expectation; Unemployment rate; Unemployment; Labor markets; COVID-19; Baltics