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Europe > Ukraine

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 11 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
How Widespread is FDI Fragmentation?
Joanne Tan
This paper examines the extent to which FDI has fragmented across countries, the ways it has done so, using a modified gravity approach. The paper finds that FDI fragmentation is, for now, not a widespread phenomenon. Instead, fragmentation is circumscribed in two ways. First, the paper finds that geo-economic fragmentation has occurred only for certain industries that likely have strategic value, including computer manufacturing, information and communications, transport, as well as professional, scientific and technical services. Secondly, fragmentation appears to be more pronounced for outward FDI from the US, notably in a shift of US FDI from China to advanced Europe and the rest of Asia. This shift appears to be driven by both the intensive and extensive margin. Fragmentation is also more pronounced for immediate rather than ultimate FDI, with evidence of ultimate parent companies aligning the geopolitical mix of their intermediaries more closely to that of their final FDI host destinations. Overall, the results suggest that fragmentation, where found, may be a response to targeted policies that have placed curbs on certain types of FDI on national security grounds, rather than an indiscriminate breakup of investment links between non-ally countries.
Keywords:
Fragmentation; Foreign Direct Investment; FDI fragmentation; host destination; FDI from the US; FDI from China; FDI host destination; Exchange rates; Manufacturing; Trade agreements; Europe; Asia and Pacific; Global; Western Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Germany’s Foreign Direct Investment in Times of Geopolitical Fragmentation
Kevin Fletcher
,
Veronika Grimm
,
Thilo Kroeger
,
Aiko Mineshima
,
Christian Ochsner
,
Andrea F. Presbitero
,
Paul Schmidt-Engelbertz
, and
Jing Zhou
Global geopolitical tensions have risen in recent years, and European energy prices have been volatile following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Some analysts have suggested that these shifting conditions may significantly affect FDI both to and from Germany. To shed light on this issue and other factors affecting German FDI, we leverage two detailed and complementary FDI datasets to explore recent trends in German FDI and how it is affected by geopolitical tensions and energy prices. In doing so, we also develop a new measure of geopolitical alignment. Our main findings include the following: (i) the post-pandemic recovery in Germany’s inward and outward FDI has been weaker than in the US or the rest of the European Union (EU27) as a whole; (ii) Germany’s outward FDI linkages with geopolitically distant countries have been weakening since the Global Financial Crisis; (iii) the relationship between Germany’s outward FDI and geopolitical distance has become more pronounced over the last six years; (iv) Germany’s outward FDI to China-Russia bloc countries is more sensitive to recent geopolitical developments compared with that to US-bloc countries; and (v) Germany’s outward FDI in energy-intensive sectors decreases as destination countries’ energy costs increase, but energy costs do not appear to have a statistically significant effect on outward FDI in non-energy intensive sectors.
Keywords:
Germany; foreign direct investment; geopolitical fragmentation; Annex I. FDI stock; outward FDI; FDI dataset; FDI activity; Germany's FDI; Fuel prices; Energy prices; Imports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War?
Gita Gopinath
,
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
,
Andrea F Presbitero
, and
Petia Topalova
Global linkages are changing amidst elevated geopolitical tensions and a surge in policies directed at increasing supply chain resilience and national security. Using granular bilateral data, this paper provides new evidence of trade and investment fragmentation along geopolitical lines since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and compares it to the historical experience of the early years of the Cold War. Gravity model estimates point to significant declines in trade and FDI flows between countries in geopolitically distant blocs since the onset of the war in Ukraine, relative to flows between countries in the same bloc (roughly 12% and 20%, respectively). While the extent of fragmentation is still relatively small and we do not know how longlasting it will be, the decoupling between the rival geopolitical blocs during the Cold War suggests it could worsen considerably should geopolitical tensions persist and trade restrictive policies intensify. Different from the early years of the Cold War, a set of nonaligned ‘connector’ countries are rapidly gaining importance and serving as a bridge between blocs. The emergence of connectors has likely brought resilience to global trade and activity, but does not necessarily increase diversification, strengthen supply chains, or lessen strategic dependence.
Keywords:
Trade; Foreign direct investment; Geoeconomics; Fragmentation; supply chain resilience; restrictive policy; nonaligned connector; years of the Cold War; surge in policy; Trade balance; Imports; Trade agreements; Trade policy; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Geoeconomic Fragmentation: What’s at Stake for the EU
Chikako Baba
,
Ting Lan
,
Ms. Aiko Mineshima
,
Florian Misch
,
Magali Pinat
,
Asghar Shahmoradi
,
Jiaxiong Yao
, and
Ms. Rachel van Elkan
Geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) is becoming entrenched worldwide, and the European Union (EU) is not immune to its effects. This paper takes stock of GEF policies impinging on—and adopted by—the EU and considers how exposed the EU is through trade, financial and technological channels. Motivated by current policies adopted by other countries, the paper then simulates how various measures—raising costs of trade and technology transfer and fossil fuel prices, and imposition of sectoral subsidies—would affect the EU economy. Due to its high-degree of openness, the EU is found to be exposed to GEF through multiple channels, with simulated losses that differ significantly across scenarios. From a welfare perspective, this suggests the need for a cautious approach to GEF policies. The EU’s best defence against GEF is to strengthen the Single Market while advocating for a multilateral rules-based trading system.
Keywords:
Geoeconomic fragmentation; cross-border restrictions; trade; innovation; multinational production; energy; European Union; Single Market; EU economy; EU integration; EU foreign direct investment linkage; EU State aid; Manufacturing; Foreign direct investment; Fuel prices; Comparative advantage; Exports; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Qatar: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Swift and decisive policy response to the Covid-19 pandemic has helped to mitigate the health and economic impact of the crisis. Fast vaccination rollout has also strengthened the economy’s resilience to new pandemic waves, paving the way for a speedy recovery. As the economy rebounds, a gradual exit from pandemic support measures is underway.
Keywords:
hydrocarbon price; CPI data; money market rate; financial asset; headline inflation; IMF's transparency policy; COVID-19; External sector statistics; Foreign assets; Global; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Distributed Profit Tax; Voluntary Disclosure of Assets; and BEPs Implementation
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance report focuses on Ukraine’s distributed profit tax, voluntary disclosure of assets, and Base Erosion and Profit Shifting Work Program implementation. The recommendations largely favor simplifying rules, improving the definition of basic concepts, eliminating potential loopholes, and adhering more closely to international standards in some cases. Thus, for the sake of simplification, the report recommends that Controlled Foreign Corporation rules should apply to the ‘first onshore’ person rather than having to trace them back to the ultimate beneficial owner in Ukraine. Also, it recommends that the proposed interest deduction limitation should eliminate the carry-forward currently permitted, limit deductions to net interest expense and exempt the financial sector from this limitation. Some key definitions can be improved too. The report suggests that if there is an urgent need to promote private investments, the accelerated depreciation tool should be applied for plant and machinery and structures housing them for say another five years.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; passive income; parent company; tax amnesty; accelerated depreciation; capital gain; CFC income; tax authority; double taxation; transfer pricing; tax burden; CFC rule; income tax; tax treaty; tax code; Personal income; Double taxation; Controlled foreign corporation rules; Foreign assets; Tax law; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Policy Discussion Papers
FDI and the Investment Climate in the CIS Countries
Mr. Clinton R. Shiells
In view of disappointing levels of inward foreign direct investment (FDI), this paper examines capital flows into the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries and investigates the main impediments to a more favorable investment climate. Direct investment inflows have generally been related to natural resource extraction or energy transportation infrastructure projects, large privatization transactions, and debt/equity swaps to pay for energy supplies. Low FDI inflows despite strengthening macroeconomic performance has reflected a weak investment climate particularly owing to incomplete structural reforms. IMF staff working on the countries concerned cited burdensome tax systems, widespread corruption, extensive state intervention coupled with weak legal and regulatory frameworks, and incomplete structural reforms as the main impediments.
Keywords:
PDP; CIS country; FDI flow; investment climate; FDI inflow; firm Gazprom; IMF country team; Moldovan firm Moldova-Gaz; FDI; Former Soviet Union; Transition economies; Regional issues; enterprise performance; Foreign direct investment; Privatization; Capital flows; Capital inflows; Oil sector; Central and Eastern Europe; Eastern Europe; Baltics; Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 48, Special Issue, Transition Economies, How Much Progress?
Mr. Richard D Haas
,
Mr. Oleh Havrylyshyn
, and
Ms. Ratna Sahay
This chapter is the collection of eight papers on different aspects of the first 10 years of economic transition. Transition issues have appeared initially quite controversial. There have been controversies on the speed of reforms, privatization methods, the role and organization of government, the kind of financial system needed, etc. Although these controversies often have been ideological, they also reflect to a large extent the initial ignorance and unpreparedness of the economics profession with respect to the large. Resident representatives in transforming economies have had a unique opportunity to witness and participate in one of the most interesting and challenging events of the economics profession in the past 50 years: the transformation of centrally planned economies into market-based systems. The job is intellectually fascinating, frequently extremely rewarding, occasionally frustrating, however, never boring. The decline in cash revenue in Russia has been the key macroeconomic policy failure of the transition. This paper argues that the fall in cash compliance emerged when money printing was replaced with a method of budget financing that did not, in the short run, compromise the government's goals of low inflation, a stable exchange rate, and low interest rates, but which ultimately has led the government into a low cash revenue trap.
Keywords:
SP; market economy; firm; transition economy; investment; CIS country; state firm; cash revenue; Foreign direct investment; Privatization; Portfolio investment; Currencies; Inflation; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Baltics; East Asia; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover Current Account and External Sustainability in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union
Current Account and External Sustainability in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union
Mr. Donal McGettigan

Abstract

Large current account imbalances have been recorded in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union since their independence. Are these current account positions sustainable, reflecting the special circumstances of transition, or are the positions untenable over the longer term? This study attempts to address this important question by first describing recent current account developments in these transition economies. It subsequently focuses on a wide range of external sustainability indicators by drawing on the existing literature, and attempts to assess their potential usefulness in a transiton country context. The indicators examined include real exchange rates, fiscal revenues and expenditures, savings and investment developments, openness measures, growth projections, external debt composition, foreign exchange reserve cover, and various financial sector measures.

Keywords:
OP; deficit; debt; debt stock ratio; GDP ratio; imbalance; current account sustainability; current account position; sustainability indicator; Current account; Current account deficits; Current account balance; Real exchange rates; Baltics
Cover IMF Working Papers
Regional Integration and Baltic Trade and Investment Performance
Mr. Robert L. Sharer
This paper analyzes the role of regional arrangements in trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) performance in the Baltics. While progress with transition is a key determinant of trade and FDI performance, regional arrangements with Western Europe have helped develop trade and transfer of technology, but have not yet led to export-related foreign direct investment toward the European Union. The main reasons for this are policy uncertainties, need for more progress with transition, and restrictions in the trade agreements, especially on the European Union side. Intra-Baltic integration has not yet led to substantial trade and FDI growth between the Baltics.
Keywords:
WP; free trade; EU membership; protection level; EU market; EU-EFTA-Baltic-Bulgaria-Romania cumulation; EU agreement; EU trade; protectionist trade regime; EU concession; Baltic trade; trade openness; EU export; hub-and-spoke system; Exports; Trade liberalization; Foreign direct investment; Trade policy; Trade barriers; Baltics; Europe; Western Europe