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Europe > Ukraine

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Report on Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) Mission (July 15–19, 2024)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted from July 15–19, 2024, to assist the State Statistical Service of Ukraine (SSSU) to develop new processes and methods for the compilation of the House Price Index (HPI). This was the second mission of a project that commenced in April 2024. The mission worked closely with the authorities to (i) develop R scripts to clean the listings data received from an online real estate platform, (ii) implement updated methods for index compilation, and (iii) increase the capacity of the SSSU staff.
Keywords:
House Price Index; Residential Real Estate Price Index; Macroeconomic Statistics; Real Estate; Housing Market; Property Values; Price Appreciation; Inflation; Economic Indicators; Residential Properties; Ukraine.; IMF's statistics department; Property price index; section I.; IMF executive directors; instrumentalities of the CD recipient; OLX data; Export fluctuations; Real estate prices; Land prices; Data processing; Data collection
Cover International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2024 Financial Statements
International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2024 Financial Statements
International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Abstract

The audited financial statements that follow form Appendix VI of the International Monetary Fund’s Annual Report 2024 and can be found, together with Appendixes I through V and other materials, on the Annual Report 2024 web page (www.imf.org/AR2024). They have been reproduced separately here as a convenience for readers. Quarterly updates of the IMF’s Finances are available at www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/quart/index.htm.

Keywords:
inflation; resilience; debt vulnerabilities; inequality food insecurity; quota; PRGT; geopolitical fragmentation; conflict; climate change; digitalization; cyber risks; artificial intelligence; capacity development; lending; economic surveillance; Deputy managing director; IMF organization chart; boards of governors of the bank; Joint Ministerial Committee of the boards of governors; and international cooperation; fair value; valuation basket; IMF activity; IMF's General Resources Account; basket currency; reserve account; unit of account; Financial statements; Credit risk; Loans; Income; Currencies; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; Europe; Asia and Pacific; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Working Papers
Crypto as a Marketplace for Capital Flight
Clemens M. Graf von Luckner
,
Robin Koepke
, and
Silvia Sgherri
This paper shows how cryptocurrency markets can fuel cross-border capital flight by serving as marketplaces that match counterparts with and without (illicit) access to FX. In countries where international transactions are restricted, crypto exchanges effectively allow domestic agents to pay a premium to buy foreign currency. The counterparts to these transactions are agents with access to FX, who sell crypto holdings purchased abroad. A stylized model illustrates that restricted foreign currency amid economic imbalances incentivizes these transactions via persistent crypto premia in local relative to global markets. We analyze relative crypto pricing data in several country case studies, providing empirical support that crypto markets serve as marketplaces for capital flight that already took place, rather than a novel channel for capital flight. We make available a novel dataset on crypto market premia, which we propose as indicators of excess demand for foreign currency and capital control intensity. The dataset will be posted along with this paper and updated periodically.
Keywords:
Capital flows; digital money; capital controls; cryptocurrency market; cross-border capital flight; crypto market; trading illicit capital flight; IMF working paper 24/133; Capital outflows; Currencies; Global
Cover Policy Papers
2021 Special Drawing Rights Allocation—Ex-Post Assessment Report
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
and
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This report follows up on the impact of the historic $650 billion 2021 SDR allocation on the global economy, documenting IMF members' use of the allocation and assessing its economic effects. The report finds that the allocation was beneficial for the global economy, helping meet the long-term global need for reserves and supporting market confidence. Members used the allocation mostly to increase international reserve buffers, with some emerging market and developing countries also using it to meet fiscal and external financing needs. While SDR interest costs have increased, members’ capacity to service SDR obligations remains generally adequate. Members’ use of the allocation was mostly in line with Fund advice, and the transparency and accountability of SDR holdings and use has been broadly appropriate, although some gaps remain. Voluntary SDR channeling from economically stronger to more vulnerable members has helped amplify the benefits of the allocation.
Keywords:
SDR channeling; service SDR obligation; SDR tracker; SDR converter; SDR department obligation; SDR interest rate; Freely usable currencies; International reserves; Credit default swap; Currencies; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mexico: Review Under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Mexico has recovered more gradually from the pandemic than its peers and economic activity is expected to slow in the second half of this year and into 2023. Inflation increased as the economy emerged from the COVID-19 shock but is expected to plateau in the second half of 2022 and then gradually decline.
Keywords:
FCL resource; bolstering market confidence; IMF's transparency policy; policy implementation; recovery from the pandemic; Inflation; Currencies; Credit; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Annual Update on SDR Trading Operations
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper provides an update on the status of the SDR trading market and operations one year after the historic fourth general allocation of SDRs. In the reporting period, SDR trading has been dominated by SDR sales due to the 2021 SDR allocation. The VTAs continue to have ample capacities to meet the demand for exchange of SDRs into currencies. Staff has made significant progress in further strengthening the SDR trading market. Since the SDR allocation, eight new VTA members have been welcomed to the SDR trading market and many existing VTA members provided additional operational flexibilities. Discussions with a number of potential new entrants continue in the broader context of SDR channeling, which encourages contributors to have VTAs.
Keywords:
SDR sale; SDR trading market; SDR trading capacity; SDR amount; SDR market; VTA member; Trading arrangements; Freely usable currencies; Currencies; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Peru: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Peru
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
After being hit very hard by the pandemic in 2020, both in terms of health and economic outcomes, Peru experienced an equally strong economic rebound in 2021. A new administration was inaugurated in July 2021 with a program focused on reducing inequality and improving social conditions, but limited support from Congress and lack of cohesion heightened political uncertainty. While real GDP surpassed its pre-pandemic level by 2021, labor force participation and total employment have not fully recovered yet. Poverty increased significantly in 2020 and, despite some improvement in 2021, remains higher than in 2019. On May 27, 2021, the IMF Executive Board completed the mid-term review of Peru’s continued qualification under the Flexible Credit Line (FCL) arrangement.
Keywords:
staff appraisal; inflation expectation; central bank inflation target range; headline inflation; BCRP report; Public sector; Currencies; Loans; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Request for Purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Cancellation of Stand-by Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine;
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
While geopolitical tensions with Russia had already curtailed Ukraine’s access to markets, the escalation to an invasion of Ukraine by Russia and full-blown war on February 24 has dramatically altered Ukraine’s outlook. A deep recession and large reconstruction costs are to be expected, on the backdrop of a humanitarian crisis. With the war ongoing, the situation remains extremely fluid, and any forecast is at this stage subject to massive uncertainty. The authorities are rightly focusing on ensuring the continuity of critical government operations, preserving financial stability and protecting priority spending.
Keywords:
financing gap; NBU supplies; emergency policy response; financing expenditure; near-term financing; Currencies; Credit; Loans; Global
Cover Global Financial Stability Notes
Drivers of Emerging Market Bond Flows and Prices
Mr. Evan Papageorgiou
and
Rohit Goel
An interesting disconnect has taken shape between local currency- and hard currency-denominated bonds in emerging markets with respect to their portfolio flows and prices since the start of the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Emerging market assets have recovered sharply from the COVID-19 sell-off in 2020, but the post-pandemic recovery in 2021 has been highly uneven. This note seeks to answer why. Yields of local currency-denominated bonds have risen faster and are approaching their pandemic highs, while hard currency bond yields are still near their post-pandemic lows. Portfolio flows to local currency debt have similarly lagged flows to hard currency bonds. This disconnect is closely linked to the external environment and fiscal and inflationary pressures. Its evolution remains a key consideration for policymakers and investors, since local markets are the main source of funding for emerging markets. This note draws from the methodology developed in earlier Global Financial Stability Reports on fundamentals-based asset valuation models for funding costs and forecasting models for capital flows (using the at-risk framework). The results are consistent across models, indicating that local currency assets are significantly more sensitive to domestic fundamentals while hard currency assets are dependent on the external risk sentiment to a greater extent. This suggests that the post-pandemic, stressed domestic fundamentals have weighed on local currency bonds, partially offsetting the boost from supportive global risk sentiment. The analysis also highlights the risks emerging markets face from an asynchronous recovery and weak domestic fundamentals.
Keywords:
emerging markets, bonds, COVID-19, at-risk framework; bond flow; hard currency assets; portfolio flow; emerging market assets; hard currency-denominated bond; hard currency bond; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Currencies; Bonds; Securities markets; Capital flows; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Survey of Research on Retail Central Bank Digital Currency
Mr. John Kiff
,
Jihad Alwazir
,
Sonja Davidovic
,
Aquiles Farias
,
Mr. Ashraf Khan
,
Mr. Tanai Khiaonarong
,
Majid Malaika
,
Mr. Hunter K Monroe
,
Nobu Sugimoto
,
Hervé Tourpe
, and
Peter Zhou
This paper examines key considerations around central bank digital currency (CBDC) for use by the general public, based on a comprehensive review of recent research, central bank experiments, and ongoing discussions among stakeholders. It looks at the reasons why central banks are exploring retail CBDC issuance, policy and design considerations; legal, governance and regulatory perspectives; plus cybersecurity and other risk considerations. This paper makes a contribution to the CBDC literature by suggesting a structured framework to organize discussions on whether or not to issue CBDC, with an operational focus and a project management perspective.
Keywords:
WP; CBDC issuance; CBDC arrangement; CBDC holding; cyber-security payment; monetary policy; money; central bank digital currencies; legal tender; payment system; cyber security; user CBDC holding; Currencies; Payment systems; Digital currencies; Legal support in revenue administration; Global; Eastern Europe; Pacific Islands; Caribbean; policy risk; CBDC pilot; CBDC payment system; CBDC transaction; cash currency management function; platform implementation decision; CBDC platform